After the epic 2016 season of Australian Survivor, I am now on my first watch of Australian Survivor 2017. We are entering the merge phase and I am completely unspoiled which is fantastic.
Of course, being as into Edgic as I am, I am going to assess the castaways in terms of winner chances. Below you'll find a castaway-by-castaway assessment dissecting who can win this game. First, a couple of notes: I'm basing almost all my assessments on the edit. I found Australian Survivor 2016 to be edited very, very similarly to American Survivor so assuming 2017 is being edited the same way (so far, it seems to be), I think I have a good handle on the edit.
Top Contenders
Sarah: I've seen Sarah as a winner contender from Episode 1. She gets a ton of airtime, but it includes a lot of what you'd look for in a winner: personal content, confessionals at important moments in the episodes, editorial protection, and correct foreshadowing. The last couple of pre-merge episodes are often crucial in terms of how players, or more importantly, storylines, are portrayed. It's been clear that the underdog Asaga tribe is the main storyline heading into the merge, complete with two different players with quotes along the lines of "an Asaga is going to win this thing". This is very similar to the underdog new Vavau storyline from Aus2016 which proved to indeed include the winner. I am pretty darn confident that an Asaga will indeed win. While I think it's probably one of the four entering the merge on Asaga, it could theoretically be someone like Henry or Michelle who is now on Samatau, but was on Asaga for much of the season. Sarah has been on Asaga the entire game and has been seen as the strategic leader of that tribe at times. Unless she's the shock merge boot, which I really don't see at this point, she's poised for a very deep run, and is the lead contender for the win.
Tara: Tara is the clear #2 candidate for the win right now. She fits many of the same criteria as Sarah: new Asaga, has personal content, is seen as a very good strategic player, etc. She has had considerably less airtime than Sarah which is a tad concerning, especially since the last pre-merge episode was not her strongest episode. All that said, I'm not too worried as she did get good content at important points in the episode and the entire Asaga tribe, which she is part of, was the clear focus of that episode. Her edit feels a bit "light" and somewhat lacking in depth compared to Sarah's, but there's an incredible foundation laid for her to build on. While I believe that Tara is indeed poised for a long run, her edit has been concerningly similar to Conner's edit in Aus2016, so I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility of Tara being the merge boot.
Henry: Henry is a very interesting one. On paper, he's had one of the strongest edits of the season. He's been seen as able to adapt to any situation that gets thrown his way, he gets lots of airtime including personal content, he has strong relationships on both tribes, a Final 3 deal with Locky and Annelise, and a hidden immunity idol still in his pocket. He's had a totally classic winner edit so far, but he is not new Asaga which is the prevailing storyline right now. That said, I did notice that the quotes were "an Asaga will win" not a "new Asaga will win", so the saving grace for Henry could be that he started the game on Asaga, and if he works with the New Asaga 4 in a merge situation, he could very easily be seen as "an Asaga". If I'm overestimating Sarah or the new Asaga storyline, Henry's probably the winner.
Contenders
Jericho: There are a few players (Jericho, Annalise, and Locky) who have all received winner-esque edits that don't feel quite right. Jericho is catapulted to the top of this group for the simple fact that he is a New Asaga, as well as the fact that his edit has consistently grown in visibility throughout the pre-merge, a good trait of a winner edit. He's had some excellent scenes (weirdly enough, I feel the cookie incident was edited in favor of Jericho), but he's also been seen as a devilish, impulsive sidekick to Luke at times. I see Jericho making it deep, and the next few episodes will be key in seeing where Jericho's story is going. At this point I predict the New Asaga 4 staying together for a while, and the Final 2 could easily be two of the New Asaga 4. At this point I see Jericho as a runner up more than anything else, but if his edit gets more positive tones, and if a lead contender like Sarah's edit slows down, Jericho's winner chances could rise.
Annalise: If I am completely overestimating the edit of New Asaga and a Saamatau pulls this off, Annalise is poised to take control. She's made some very questionable moves but most of them have been protected, at least to an extent, by the edit. In addition to being a Saamatu, my biggest concern for Annalise is that she had very little airtime in the first five episodes. Normally, that would be a death nail for winner chances, but in a 26 episode season, maybe it's not. I do believe that Annalise has strong alliances and a number of options moving forward, not to mention a hidden immunity idol, so winner or not, I predict a deep run for Annalise.
Locky: Locky has had a large edit, but it is severely lacking in depth. Very little personal content and oddly placed confessionals top my list of concerns about his edit, not to mention the fact that he is another Saamatau. The one thing that Locky really has going for him is that he's had tons of positive second person visibility and he's had perhaps the most consistent edit in terms of confessional counts, of anyone left in the game. Can he win? Yes, but only if the New Asaga story is completely irrelevant in the end game as Locky has been painted as the leader of Saamatu, Asaga's enemy tribe.
Michelle: Michelle has had a consistent edit, but it has been nearly strictly strategical, and certainly lacking in personal content. She strikes me as the Kellyn Bechtold or Brooke Jowett of this season -- the female strategic powerhouse that is eventually determined to be too big of a threat and voted out mid-post-merge. Although she's New Saamatau, she was Original Asaga, and like Henry, I could see her working with the New Asaga 4 post-merge. So, if the Asaga storyline will be the prevailing one, as I predict it will be, Michelle could be a big part of that, and that's what keeps her hanging on as a contender for the win.
Long Shots
Luke: Luke would have one of the oddest winner edits in history if he pulls this thing off. He's been shown is erratic, goofy, and flat-out stupid at times. But what have we did we say about Tony Vlahos at the Cagayan merge? That he'd have one of the oddest winner edits in history. When a winner is such an eccentric character, producers are not going to hide all of the crazy content in favor of a classic winner edit. That said, I do believe they would have at least toned down some of Luke's craziness, especially in the easily forgettable but all important premiere, where he was painted to be a total lunatic. He's at the top of the long shots group only because, for better or worse, he is playing hard, and he is New Asaga.
Ziggy: Ziggy has played a pretty solid pre-merge games (with some serious flaws). Oddly enough, the edit has seemed to focus on her flaws more than her successes. In the last immunity challenge, Jericho was painted as the hero, even though Ziggy outlasted him. It's like her good moments are under edited and her bad moments are over edited. She is holding the most powerful idol in Survivor history and I believe that she has gotten the Carl Boudreaux edit -- lots of airtime, but only because she holds a critical advantage. I suspect Ziggy will play her super idol, and then be promptly voted out. When will this happen? Who knows, but if I had to guess, I'd say mid-post-merge, just like Carl. All her personal content keeps her off the bottom in terms of winner chances.
Nearly Out of Contention:
Tessa: Oh Tessa, oh Tessa. I had such high hopes for her until around Episode 10. She played so well out of the gate, got so much personal content, many confessionals, you name it. But she has been I-N-V-I-S-I-B-L-E for the past five episodes. That pretty much is a death nail during one of the most important stretches of the game, edit wise. I considered labeling her Out of Contention, but I still have this far out belief (maybe it's more of a hope) that if her edit spikes again at the merge that she could maybe, just maybe pull it off. If her edit stays weak she will firmly drop out of contention though.
Out of Contention
Peter: Peter has had a fair amount of airtime, but he's been perceived as weak and irrelevant to the overall storyline of the season. He's had no personal content, no properly timed confessionals, and no solid relationships with anyone (other than Tessa, who is also going nowhere edit wise). Peter can't win this game.
Jerrad: And that brings us to the least likely person to win the game. Jerrad has had multiple episodes with no confessionals, and his only working relationship was with AJ who is long gone. Jerrad is destined to be that early-pre-merge ultra forgettable boot. Sorry Jerrad, but you're the most forgettable character of the season.
Well, there we have it! I can't wait to see how accurate my predictions are and how the rest of this season plays out. I'm hoping for an epic post-merge!
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