Survivor: Edge of Extinction kicked off this week with a short but exciting premiere and although I am still a bit skeptical of the EoE twist, I am hopeful for a great season. Find here my predicted boot order. Remember, this is primarily based on edit.
2nd person voted out: Aubry -- Oh how so much can change from the pre-season to the premiere. Going in, I thought Aubry had great odds of of making it deep yet again but she had by far the weakest premiere of all the returnees. I do believe that one returnee will be voted out pre-merge, and it seems destined to be Aubry. While she could last a bit longer than next episode, I believe she will go sooner rather than later, especially since Eric and Gavin, two players that the edit wants us to remember in positive light, want her gone soon.
3rd person voted out: Wendy -- I actually really like Wendy and think she represents a really awesome, unique archetype that we should see more of on Survivor. That said, she doesn't seem destined for a deep run in this game. Her edit had no longevity, and it's almost as if her story has already run its course -- she told us about her disability, her closest ally was Reem who is already gone, and she's on the outs of Manu (and I guarantee you Wentworth and Lauren will be working to keep the majority together).
4th person voted out: Julie -- Julie is a very interesting one in that she got a surprising amount of airtime for someone relatively irrelevant to the current game narrative. She had a bit of a "dodo edit" and the edit made sure to tell us that she's not at all outdoorsy. Her edit is two-sided: in terms of content, I can't see how she makes the merge. In terms of visibility: I'd be a bit surprised if she didn't. This is why I think she is our first of two EoE returners. She's set up for a journey arc: the city woman that has never gone camping finds it in herself to survive the Edge of Extinction and re-enter the game.
5th person voted out: Victoria -- One of the young, strategic females that received a decent premiere edit is the "Anna Khait" of this season -- the player that plays well and a lot of fans love, but that gets booted before the merge, sometimes due to being a swap victim. The candidates for the "Anna Khait" this season are Victoria, Aurora, Lauren, and Wentworth. I believe that Lauren and Wentworth both have a ton of longevity in their edit, so that really narrows it down to likely Victoria or Aurora. I'd lean towards it being Victoria as she had less personal content than Aurora, and the Anna Khait edit usually lacks personal content.
6th person voted out: Chris -- Chris was one of only two players to not receive a single premiere confessional. Not only is that a death nail to winner chances, but it likely means they will not play a major role in the season. I believe that Julia, the other confessional-less player, has a better chance of making it deep for two reasons: she seems to have a lot more potential than Chris based on pre-game interviews, and it's less unusual for her archetype to receive no air time. Chris is an alpha male type and was a star in the challenge, so it's very surprising how weak his edit was. I'm calling it now: he'll be the James Lim-type shock right-before-the-merge strong guy boot.
7th person voted out: Gavin -- The very last boot before the merge is often either a polarizing villain (Peter in Kaoh Rong, Bradley in Ghost Island) or a lovable hero (Sandra in Game Changers, Lyrsa in David vs Goliath). I am predicting that this season it will be the latter, and Gavin pretty much fits the bill. He's had a lot of good content, but some of it seems a little 'off'. The biggest red flag was when he talked about buying a fourth traffic light for his town if he was to win the game. Winners are usually shown either not talking about what they'd do with the money, or they talk about supporting their family with it, or putting it to a good cause (like Nick in DvG). A traffic light isn't exactly a "good cause" (unless it would be at a dangerous intersection and could save lives, and if that was the case, and Gavin was the winner, I think there would have been that explanation to go along with it). I'm having a bit of trouble pinpoiniting more reasons, but overall Gavin's edit feels just a bit "off" to me, and not unlike Lyrsa's edit in DvG, so I'm afraid to say it, but I'm not convinced he'll be there at the merge.
MERGE where Julie re-enters the game from Edge of Extinction -- See description above for why I think it'll be Julie.
8th person voted out: Aurora -- The merge boot often has the most winner-like edit of the season, outside of people in the Final 7. I really liked Aurora's premiere: airtime despite not being a major player in the overall narrative, and a key personal content soundbite telling us she is gay. Could she win? Absolutely, but someone that could win will be the merge boot, and her pre-season interviews telling us how confrontational she can be, plus the fact that most recent merge boots (Michelle in MvGX, Hali in Game Changers, Jessica in HHH, Elizabeth in DvG) have been youngish females, Aurora seems like the most likely candidate for merge boot.
9th person voted out: Julie -- As I described above, Julie pretty much has a pre-merge edit, just way too large of one. Visibility could be simply because she is the first EoE returner, and lack of complexity is probably because she gets voted out not long after re-entering the game.
10th person voted out: Eric -- Eric's edit was a bit of a hard one to read. It was certainly a "hero edit", and while that could correlate to a win, I am thinking it might not. I think Eric is one of those guys whose threat level is so large that they will be voted out not too long after the merge. Eric's edit doesn't necessarily seem like a boring early-post-merge boot though, so I am guessing that he will be the second EoE returner.
11th person voted out: Joe -- Joe is being edited just like he was in both Worlds Apart and Second Chance -- the golden boy. It wasn't a great edit sign when he said "I don't want to be too big of a threat" in a confessional, and the next scene was him starting fire. Joe is just not destined to reach the end game, and I see him falling in a similar position as his last two games.
12th person voted out: Julia -- It pains me to say this since she was my pre-season winner pick, but Julia is looking like that ultra-forgettable mid-post-merge boot (JP in HHH, Chelsea in Ghost Island). She had by far the weakest edit of the premiere, and simply put, cannot win the game. I am hopeful that her edit will spike at some point, and that we'll at least get some good content from her as she seems like a great person with gameplay potential, but she's not going to be the major character I was hoping, and thought she would be.
13th person voted out: WarDog -- WarDog was a tough one to rank. He had a pretty good edit, with a couple clear flaws. He got the first confessional of the season which in itself is a sign the editors want us to pay attention to him. Can he win? Yes, but he's not a top contender. The last thing we heard from him pre-tribal was that he'd like to flip the vote from Reem to Wendy, but obviously that didn't happen, so that wasn't the best look in terms of the edit. Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked to see him end up as the runner up. His edit already has some similarities to two recent runners up: Domenick (WarDog telling Reem that she was "too much" for him at tribal reminded me of Dom's confrontation with Chris during the Ghost Island premiere), and Angelina (who had the first confessional of DvG). I think Wentworth has a more classic runner up edit at this point though, so I think that WarDog may instead be the Joe Mena/Nick Iadanza extreme strategist mid-post-merge player.
14th person voted out: David -- I think that David has the most winner-like edit of the four returnees but Gavin's quote of "a new player needs to win this season" which was so heavily shown, will fulfill itself, which means that David won't win. His premiere edit reminded me of Christian's premiere edit in David vs Goliath, or even Kellyn's in Ghost Island. Both those players ended up in seventh position, so this seems like a good spot for David -- the fan favorite who could easily win that goes out right before the finale.
15th person voted out: Keith -- Keith had the most confessionals (five) by a long shot in the premiere, and it's clear that he's going to be a big character this season. Can he win? Yes, but he's not a topmost contender. First of all, the fact that he had the most confessionals is not great. Only two winners (Richard Hatch and Nick Wilson) have had the most confessionals in the premiere. The fact that Nick is one of them could be a saving grace since he was the most recent winner, and maybe the editors are changing things up, but I still think it's more likely to be a negative. Keith is already giving me huge Davie vibes, and his edit is shaping up to be a big journey, so sixth place is the most likely finish for Keith at this point.
---Second Edge of Extinction returner---: Eric -- See above for why I think the second returner will be Eric.
16th person voted out, ninth jury member: Eric -- Unfortunately for him, I think Eric will leave as soon as he gets back in the game. It makes sense, he'll be a huge jury threat so if he doesn't win immunity it'll make sense to take him out. His edit would support this, as unless he wins (which he could, but I think there are stronger winner contenders) he doesn't have a Final 4 edit as of now.
17th person voted out, tenth and final jury member: Rick Devens -- Devens is certainly a character and someone I expect to have a huge impact on the season. His edit is large so far, but he was in the promo (with Aubry, Wendy, and Joe) so that makes him very unlikely to win in my opinion. Not only that, but his premiere edit was not necessarily that of a winner. It's too goofy for a winner. The "OH YEAH!!!" stuff almost reminds me of some of Christian's content from DvG. They're setting Rick up as an underdog, and the final boot often gets an underdog edit. Also, he seems like a jury threat that isn't necessarily good at fire making, so it makes sense he'd go out here.
Final Three: Lauren O'Connell (winner, 5 jury votes), Kelley Wentworth (runner up, 3 jury votes), Ron Clark (second runner up, 2 jury votes)
The premiere was jam packed as it was the shortest premiere we've had in a while, and they only showed essential content for the most part. Lauren and Wentworth's relationship was given a big focus, and both individuals got great edits. I am officially predicting that they'll make FTC together and that Lauren will beat Wentworth as Lauren's edit was a more classic winner edit (better personal content) and Wentworth's edit of needing to make real emotional relationships was a flashback to Spencer's Second Chance runner up edit. All this, plus Gavin's newbie winner quote give Lauren the upper hand. As for Ron, his edit was larger than it needed to be, but a bit erratic, all great signs of a second runner up edit. Also, his quote about winning could be perceived as a winner quote, but it really reminded me of Mike White's quote from DvG. Call it a "decoy winner quote", something to give super fans the idea that they might win.
Last but not least, everyone ranked from most to least likely to win (no explanations):
Lauren
Aurora
Wentworth
Eric
Ron
WarDog
Keith
David
Victoria
Gavin
Rick
Joe
Wendy
Aubry
Julie
Chris
Julia
Reem
No comments:
Post a Comment