After watching all 37 seasons of American Survivor, and rewatching most of them, sometimes several times, I've finally given in to trying out Australian Survivor. And what can I say? I've reached the merge of 2016 and it made my top 5 pre-merge seasons in Survivor history. I hoped Australian Survivor would be good, but I had no idea in my wildest dreams that it would be this good. It truly just feels like another season of Survivor.
I feel like in order to watch this season "correctly" I need to make predictions and assess the castaways just as I would any other "new" season of Survivor. Below you'll find a castaway-by-castaway assessment dissecting who can win this game. First, a couple of notes: I'm basing almost all my assessments on the edit. I have heard that Australian Survivor is edited very similarly to American Survivor, but with some unique twists. That's all I have to go on. Without further ado, here's the assessment:
Top Contenders
Kate: Kate enters the merge with #1 odds for several reasons. First of all, there are only three members of the newest Vavau tribe and ever since the main (3 tribe to 2 tribe) swap the editorial focus has been on Vavau. Vavau losing every challenge, Vavau's strategy, Vavau's tribal bonds, so on. There has been unusually little focus on Saanapu. The focus has been Vavau's losing streak rather than Saanapu's winning streak. All this, plus Craig's unusually edited exit with the words "somebody on this tribe better win" all lead me to believe that one of the Vavauians will likely pull this off. So why Kate over Christie or Conner? Overall she has the most well-rounded and strongest "winner edit". The original Vavau tribe was on a giant winning streak, but despite winning, they were edited to be the goofballs that couldn't make fire and had bad camp life. They were likely edited this way to foreshadow the eventual downfall of Vavau, but it also painted their tribe members to be somewhat incapable, which is not what you want to see in a winner. The one person that was not painted in this light was Kate. She was seen as the positive energy among a group of debbie downers. The person that got the confessional when something good happened for the tribe but never when something bad happened. Other highlights of her edit include last couple episodes when there have been quotes of other players saying "Kate can win this whole game" or "Kate's a serious threat out here". Other plusses for her edit are lots of personal content and a good story arc. The only downside to her edit is that she's had incorrect foreshadowing several times, especially regarding Vavau's ability to win challenges. That's a red flag, but given that Australian Survivor editing is supposed to be a bit different than American Survivor editing, and also given that Nick Wilson (winner of David vs Goliath) had incorrect foreshadowing at times, I don't think it's enough to knock Kate off the #1 spot.
Christie: Christie was new Vavau so would also fit the bill for someone from new Vavau winning. She was old Aganoa which could be seen as a plus sense old Vavau was edited to be a trainwreck. Her edit is overall very favorable and I'm still intrigued by her early paranoia which got more airtime than it needed to. I think Christie is set for a deep run, especially since her edit picked up right as Phoebe was eliminated. If the ally of the "Anna Khait edit" ends up winning, the winner's edit usually picks up right as the "Anna Khait" is eliminated (think Michele in Kaoh Rong). Christie has had enough personal content, a large enough story arc, and enough gameplay focus to be a top contender. The only things that knock her a peg below Kate are a few very subtle negative tones in her edit, and some continued comments that she's "too paranoid" (though that could just be adding to her story arc).
Conner: It was a bit tough deciding whether to rank Christie or Conner higher, but I ultimately chose to rank Christie higher since her edit has grown throughout the pre-merge, whereas Conner started out strong and then dropped off a bit. That said, he's an old Saanapu, new Vavau and throughout the season has had a very winner-esque edit (his premiere was probably the strongest of anyone left in the game). He's had the personal content, he has a story arc, he has good relationships (his strongest being with Kate). There was also the quote this past episode of Kate and Conner wanting to go to the end together. Could that be foreshadowing of both of them in the FTC? Quite possibly. Conner's edit has felt a bit "light" and "lacking" compared to Kate and Christie but if it picks up at the merge Conner could be as likely as anyone to win.
Contenders
Flick: If Flick was new Vavau she may be a top contender, but sense I believe the winner comes from new Vavau, I have to put her at the top of the next group instead. As I said, new Saanapu has been weirdly ignored in the edit, but when they do show new Saanapu, Flick is the lead narrator and it's clear that the editors don't want us to forget her. She was in control of old Saanapu and seems to be the lead strategist on new Saanapu. Numbers wise, she appears to enter the merge in one of the strongest positions. Her edit seems "off" compared to the three new Vavau tribe members (less personal content etc) but like Conner, if her edit picks up at the merge, and if the new Vavau storyline fades, Flick could easily become the top contender.
Lee: Lee had a fantastic edit when he was on Aganoa with plenty of personal content and successful strategy. He got concerningly few confessionals on new Saanapu but the editors did go out of their way to show him fishing, show his relationship with Sam, etc. It's clear that Lee is a major part of this season, and he's another one whose edit could pick up at the merge and head towards a win.
Nick: Nick is a very interesting one. I haven't counted confessionals, but it wouldn't surprise me if he has the most of anyone entering the merge. His edit has been undeniably huge, but has it been a winner edit? Hard to say. He's clearly been edited as the Tony Vlachos/Joe Mena overplaying but entertaining villain edit. I see him more as a Joe -- someone whose overplaying will eventually get the best of them, probably mid-post-merge, but there's still the chance that he is a Tony that ends up pulling it all off. If he was to win, his edit needs to actually slow down a bit, his play needs to become more methodical and less emotional, and he also needs a bit more personal content and a few more stronger bonds.
Jenna Louise: Although Jenna Louise is by no means a villain, her edit is somewhat similar to Nick's in that it has been very large, but not necessarily a winner edit. I feel that I need to at least consider her as a contender due to the size of her edit alone, and maybe in Australian Survivor, the winner will get less personal content, or the personal content will start later in the season. That said, her edit has been nearly strictly strategic, and a winner generally has more than that. Her edit was more of an Anna Khait than a winner, and I'm a bit surprised she's still her TBH. Where do I see her edit going? She could be the runner up, the merge boot, the winner, or one of the last boots, in that order of likelihood.
Long Shots
Sam: Sam has had a relatively large edit, but I feel it's been primarily circumstantial, in that he's only been shown when he's relative to a larger story (for example, the first swap that he was a part of). He lacks much personal content and hasn't made any or at least many strategic moves. The one thing that keeps him at the top of the long shots group is his bromance with Lee which has gotten a lot of focus, and Sam has been the main one talking about the bromance in confessionals.
Brooke: Brooke would be a bigger contender if her edit had kicked off sooner. She's shown to be strategic and she's had at least a little bit of personal content, but only in the last four or five episodes. Before that, zilch, notta, nothing. With Australian Survivor having 12 extra episodes, maybe a winner edit wouldn't kick off until late-pre-merge, but I have a heard time believing that the winner would be so heavily ignored for so long. Another strike against Brooke is that she's tight with Flick, but has continually been shown as the "second wheel" in that alliance, rather than an equal, never a good sign for a winner.
El: El is the longest shot of the long shots, and is not lower, simply because there's not much bad to say about her. There's also not much good to say about her. She's been... there. She's clearly been second to Lee, she hasn't had much airtime, I mean, what can I say? Her edit needs to pick up N-O-W for her to have any shot. Realistically, her best hope is probably for an Alison Raybould-type edit-spike at the merge and to become a significant part of the game before her eventual, inevitable vote-out.
Nearly out of contention
Matt: Matt winning would be so odd I don't even know what to say. The only reason he's not in the bottom two in terms of chances is how large his edit has been. In terms of number of confessionals, he should be a winner contender. Except for his dominance in puzzles, he's been seen as either a goofball or a whiny brat, whether it's his jealousy of Lee for taking his "Charlie's angels" away from him, or his stupid idea to free the chickens. In American Survivor, I'd probably consider him out of contention, but this is Australian Survivor, and if they want to give us the weirdest winner edit in Survivor history, well maybe, just maybe, they will. But I don't think so.
Kylie: Kylie's first few episodes keep her off the bottom. She started out strong with personal content, an idol find, plenty of positive tone, you name it. But from the time she wasted her idol on she's been edited as someone with a terrible social game that fundamentally does not seem to know how to play Survivor. That's the last way you want to enter the merge, and unfortunately, I don't see a way for her to turn it around. Prove me wrong Kylie.
Out of Contention
Sue: Sue won't win. Let's just settle that right now. She had virtually no air time until Brooke took her to Saanapu, and even then, way less than I would expect she would have had being part of such a unique twist. She has been perceived as a goat that has very little strategic ability and is just along for the ride. Dare I say it, she makes Kylie look like a Survivor genius. Sue will probably be the ultra-forgettable mid-post-merge boot. If she makes it to the finale I'll be floored.
Well, there we have it! I can't wait to see how accurate my predictions are and how the rest of this awesome season plays out.
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