Last December I created a dream cast for a Heroes vs Villains 2 season as I thought that would be a perfect theme for the 40th season. In the past Jeff Probst had hinted that an all winners season would be unlikely, but much to the delight of superfans, Martin Holmes announced last week that we are in for a highly anticipated season of all champions for the legendary 40th season.
I have created my dream cast of 10 males and 10 females for this season. I do think there is a decent chance of an 18 person cast especially since production may struggle to get female winners, so I'll note which male and female I'd remove if forced to.
MALES:
Richard Hatch (winner of Survivor: Borneo) -- It's to be expected that the cast will be somewhat new school-heavy (because new school winners are more likely to want to play again, and casual fans will remember them more), but I truly hope that there is also a good mix of old school winners in the cast. Hatch is a must for this season IMO. For the simple fact that he was the first ever winner and set the stage for everyone else to follow. More than anyone else, this cast would feel incomplete without Hatch. It'll also be very interesting to see how well he does in the game. On one hand, I think he could go far as he's not known as a strategic threat. On the other hand, he'd have SUCH a good story if he made it to the end, and I fear that he might not play very well in new school Survivor (ala Kelly Wiglesworth in Cambodia) so I do think he could go pre-merge. Regardless of how well he does, having him on the season (even for one episode) will make it so much more epic.
Yul Kwon (winner of Survivor: Cook Islands) -- It's well known that I'm a huge Yul fan and I have him ranked the second best winner in history. It's been a long time since he's played but he truly revolutionized gameplay and unlike Hatch I think he could adapt well to new school gameplay styles. Yul is one of those rare players that is truly a triple threat (social, strategic, physical). We just never really got to see his physical prowess in CI due to Ozzy dominating everything. I think Yul could be a sleeper pick for a very deep run this season.
Todd Herzog (winner of Survivor: China) -- Todd is another "must have" pick for this season IMO. He's in my Top 5 most wanted for this cast. He dominated strategically and played one of the best strategic games of the first 15 seasons. It's been well over 10 years since his season but he's still remembered as a legend. He's also gone through some not so wonderful things personally since China so to have him return to the game now that he's doing so well again would truly bring his story full circle. Not to mention the fact that I have no doubt he'd be a great new school player and add some awesome strategic entertainment to the season!
Rob "Boston Rob" Mariano (winner of Survivor: Redemption Island) -- Rob's here simply because he's a true legend. I'm not the biggest Mariano fan, but I do think this season will benefit explicitly from having as stacked a cast as possible, and there's no bigger legend than BRob. Heck, if he's on this season he'll be the first ever five time player! Not only will having legends add an awesome element to the season, the more of them we have the bigger shields they are for each other. If there were only one or two legends on the season, they'd probably be voted out immediately, but if there's a good number, they could hopefully protect each other.
John Cochran (winner of Survivor: Caramoan) -- I didn't hesitate picking Cochran for the cast simply because he'll add so much to the season. One (very small) downside to an all-winner cast is that it may be harder to cast different "archetypes", but Cochran certainly fills a unique one. I wouldn't be shocked to see Cochran out early since he's strategically strong but physically weak, but he'll be worth having on the cast anyway.
Tyson Apostol (winner of Survivor: Blood vs Water) -- Tyson is here for two reasons: first of all, like Cochran, he fills a pretty unique archetype and will had some much needed humor to this season. Secondly, his winning game in BvW was a piece of artwork and easily a top 10 winning game. Although BvW was his third season, coming off that big win his story doesn't feel totally complete, and I'd love to see how he could do on round number four now that he's really found his strategic footing.
Tony Vlachos (winner of Survivor: Cagayan) -- Tony's a must. He's probably the most legendary winner since Boston Rob. He's also incredibly entertaining and a true strategic powerhouse. I just hope and pray that we see him for more than one episode like Game Changers.
Adam Klein (winner of Survivor: Millennials vs Gen X) -- I'm not sure how many "fan casting" season 40 lists Adam is on but he was a LOCK for mine. I think I rank Adam just like most fans do, mid-tier, but on a personal level Adam is one of my very favorite players ever. I loved his story, I loved how emotional he allowed himself to be on the show, and despite having some serious gameplay flaws, I absolutely loved his style of play, partly because I think I would play pretty similarly if I were to ever play Survivor. He absolutely deserves another game and think this would be a season where he could excel.
*Ben Driebergen (winner of Survivor: Heroes v Healers v Hustlers) -- Ben is *d for the fact that if we get an 18 person cast and I have to cut a male, I'm cutting Ben. And it pains me to do it because I love Ben to bits but I feel like he's a less unique archetype than many of these guys, and would be less a standout character than some other folks. And don't get me wrong, I really hope Ben's on the cast because I do think he'll add a lot to the season, but if I have to cut one more guy, sorry Ben, it's you.
Wendell Holland Jr. (winner of Survivor: Ghost Island) -- I'm probably in the minority of fans putting Wendell on my list too, but I definitely think he fills a unique archetype -- the highly social, fairly strategic middle-aged african american male. I decided as soon as I was going to do this list that I'd cast one of the three winners of this archetype and it pained me to cut Earl and Jeremy, but I do think Wendell is the best choice. Simply for the fact that he's the most charismatic and interesting of these guys, and he also edges out Jeremy because I think he can do better than Jeremy as he has less of a target on his back than Jeremy would.
FEMALES:
Tina Wesson (winner of Survivor: Australian Outback) -- I'm a huge Tina fan and personally find her Blood vs Water game way underrated. She was this close to becoming a two time winner that season, and I wouldn't rule out her chances this season. She openly struggled adapting to the new school game in BvW, and the game has evolved even a lot more since then, so it'll be interesting to see how she'd fare!
Sandra Diaz-Twine (winner of Survivor: Pearl Islands and Survivor: Heroes vs Villains) -- Another MUST pick. The myth, the woman, the legend. The QUEEN. Unfortunately, Sandra will probably enter this season with a GIANT target on her back. But she made it farther than I thought she could in Game Changers, and God I hope she can do it again here because every minute Sandra's on my screen I am LIVING. She is as of now the best player to ever play the game, and I hope she can prove that she still deserves that title after this season.
Danni Boatwright (winner of Survivor: Guatemala) -- Danni is one of the more obscure winners and a bit of a "huh?" pick for this season, but she's on a lot of fan casting lists, and I completely stand by my choice of her for my cast. She was underrated in Guatemala and had more strategy than people give her credit for, plus she'll be a good social and strategic player in this cast full of strategic gamers.
Parvati Shallow (winner of Survivor: Micronesia) -- Parvati is another must pick IMO. Easily the second best to ever play as of right now, it'd be interesting to see her give Sandra a run for the title this season. Parvati will also enter the season with a huge target, but if anyone can deflate a target, Parv's probably the person for the job. If she could make a deep run, she'd have an awesome story at FTC.
*Sophie Clarke (winner of Survivor: South Pacific) -- Sophie is my female to drop for an 18 person cast. I'm honestly neutral to having her on the season, the only reason she's here at all is because there aren't that many female winners and she's better than some. I do think her game is semi-underrated too, and it's possible she could excel this season. The simple fact is that she's just really not that entertaining.
Kim Spradlin (winner of Survivor: One World) -- If the cast is released and does not include Kim, I'll be so disappointed. Superfans give her the credit she deserves for playing the fourth best winning game in history, but sadly casuals don't remember her for her brilliance. Hopefully this season can put her on the radar of ALL fans, and if she won again (which I think she could), she could easily (probably?!) rival Sandra for the all-time title.
Denise Stapley (Survivor: Philippines) -- What a player. What a winner. Denise is another triple threat and her amazing play was showcased by the fact that she survived Every. Single. Tribal. Council. I could easily see Denise making another deep run, and I'd dig it. Hopefully her tribe wins a challenge or two this time though.
Natalie Anderson (winner of Survivor: San Juan del Sur) -- She was almost cast for Game Changers. I hope she finally gets her second game now. Like Adam, she played a mid-tier but absolutely entertaining game in SJDS, and she's one of my personal favorite winners. If she plays hard again, she could be one of the standouts this season if she makes it far.
Michele Fitzgerald (winner of Survivor: Kaoh Rong) -- I hope Michele is cast for several reasons. First of all, this cast (any winner cast, really) is extremely stacked with strategic powerhouses so like Danni, Michele will help balance it out as a more social player. Also, I thought her win in Kaoh Rong was justified and deserved, but when she beat Aubry that was very controversial, and I think that she more than deserves a second chance to prove herself as the player she really is.
Sarah Lacina (winner of Survivor: Game Changers) -- The last person on the cast and the last MUST. It's no secret that I think Sarah's Game Changers game was pure brilliance and that she played the best single winning game in history. Could she do it again? I think she'll have a target, but she could deflate it, and if she did pull off another win, she's easily the best to ever play.
Well, folks, there we have it! My dream cast of winners! And I'm SO excited for the season given that I feel confident that a lot of these picks will make it on, and that there are some GREAT players that I didn't even "cast". Man, it really was tough leaving Brian, Tom, Mike, and Jeremy off. Gosh, I wish S40 started now. I'm so pumped!!
Monday, April 22, 2019
Saturday, February 23, 2019
Survivor: Edge of Extinction Predicted Boot Order at F17
Survivor: Edge of Extinction kicked off this week with a short but exciting premiere and although I am still a bit skeptical of the EoE twist, I am hopeful for a great season. Find here my predicted boot order. Remember, this is primarily based on edit.
2nd person voted out: Aubry -- Oh how so much can change from the pre-season to the premiere. Going in, I thought Aubry had great odds of of making it deep yet again but she had by far the weakest premiere of all the returnees. I do believe that one returnee will be voted out pre-merge, and it seems destined to be Aubry. While she could last a bit longer than next episode, I believe she will go sooner rather than later, especially since Eric and Gavin, two players that the edit wants us to remember in positive light, want her gone soon.
3rd person voted out: Wendy -- I actually really like Wendy and think she represents a really awesome, unique archetype that we should see more of on Survivor. That said, she doesn't seem destined for a deep run in this game. Her edit had no longevity, and it's almost as if her story has already run its course -- she told us about her disability, her closest ally was Reem who is already gone, and she's on the outs of Manu (and I guarantee you Wentworth and Lauren will be working to keep the majority together).
4th person voted out: Julie -- Julie is a very interesting one in that she got a surprising amount of airtime for someone relatively irrelevant to the current game narrative. She had a bit of a "dodo edit" and the edit made sure to tell us that she's not at all outdoorsy. Her edit is two-sided: in terms of content, I can't see how she makes the merge. In terms of visibility: I'd be a bit surprised if she didn't. This is why I think she is our first of two EoE returners. She's set up for a journey arc: the city woman that has never gone camping finds it in herself to survive the Edge of Extinction and re-enter the game.
5th person voted out: Victoria -- One of the young, strategic females that received a decent premiere edit is the "Anna Khait" of this season -- the player that plays well and a lot of fans love, but that gets booted before the merge, sometimes due to being a swap victim. The candidates for the "Anna Khait" this season are Victoria, Aurora, Lauren, and Wentworth. I believe that Lauren and Wentworth both have a ton of longevity in their edit, so that really narrows it down to likely Victoria or Aurora. I'd lean towards it being Victoria as she had less personal content than Aurora, and the Anna Khait edit usually lacks personal content.
6th person voted out: Chris -- Chris was one of only two players to not receive a single premiere confessional. Not only is that a death nail to winner chances, but it likely means they will not play a major role in the season. I believe that Julia, the other confessional-less player, has a better chance of making it deep for two reasons: she seems to have a lot more potential than Chris based on pre-game interviews, and it's less unusual for her archetype to receive no air time. Chris is an alpha male type and was a star in the challenge, so it's very surprising how weak his edit was. I'm calling it now: he'll be the James Lim-type shock right-before-the-merge strong guy boot.
7th person voted out: Gavin -- The very last boot before the merge is often either a polarizing villain (Peter in Kaoh Rong, Bradley in Ghost Island) or a lovable hero (Sandra in Game Changers, Lyrsa in David vs Goliath). I am predicting that this season it will be the latter, and Gavin pretty much fits the bill. He's had a lot of good content, but some of it seems a little 'off'. The biggest red flag was when he talked about buying a fourth traffic light for his town if he was to win the game. Winners are usually shown either not talking about what they'd do with the money, or they talk about supporting their family with it, or putting it to a good cause (like Nick in DvG). A traffic light isn't exactly a "good cause" (unless it would be at a dangerous intersection and could save lives, and if that was the case, and Gavin was the winner, I think there would have been that explanation to go along with it). I'm having a bit of trouble pinpoiniting more reasons, but overall Gavin's edit feels just a bit "off" to me, and not unlike Lyrsa's edit in DvG, so I'm afraid to say it, but I'm not convinced he'll be there at the merge.
MERGE where Julie re-enters the game from Edge of Extinction -- See description above for why I think it'll be Julie.
8th person voted out: Aurora -- The merge boot often has the most winner-like edit of the season, outside of people in the Final 7. I really liked Aurora's premiere: airtime despite not being a major player in the overall narrative, and a key personal content soundbite telling us she is gay. Could she win? Absolutely, but someone that could win will be the merge boot, and her pre-season interviews telling us how confrontational she can be, plus the fact that most recent merge boots (Michelle in MvGX, Hali in Game Changers, Jessica in HHH, Elizabeth in DvG) have been youngish females, Aurora seems like the most likely candidate for merge boot.
9th person voted out: Julie -- As I described above, Julie pretty much has a pre-merge edit, just way too large of one. Visibility could be simply because she is the first EoE returner, and lack of complexity is probably because she gets voted out not long after re-entering the game.
10th person voted out: Eric -- Eric's edit was a bit of a hard one to read. It was certainly a "hero edit", and while that could correlate to a win, I am thinking it might not. I think Eric is one of those guys whose threat level is so large that they will be voted out not too long after the merge. Eric's edit doesn't necessarily seem like a boring early-post-merge boot though, so I am guessing that he will be the second EoE returner.
11th person voted out: Joe -- Joe is being edited just like he was in both Worlds Apart and Second Chance -- the golden boy. It wasn't a great edit sign when he said "I don't want to be too big of a threat" in a confessional, and the next scene was him starting fire. Joe is just not destined to reach the end game, and I see him falling in a similar position as his last two games.
12th person voted out: Julia -- It pains me to say this since she was my pre-season winner pick, but Julia is looking like that ultra-forgettable mid-post-merge boot (JP in HHH, Chelsea in Ghost Island). She had by far the weakest edit of the premiere, and simply put, cannot win the game. I am hopeful that her edit will spike at some point, and that we'll at least get some good content from her as she seems like a great person with gameplay potential, but she's not going to be the major character I was hoping, and thought she would be.
13th person voted out: WarDog -- WarDog was a tough one to rank. He had a pretty good edit, with a couple clear flaws. He got the first confessional of the season which in itself is a sign the editors want us to pay attention to him. Can he win? Yes, but he's not a top contender. The last thing we heard from him pre-tribal was that he'd like to flip the vote from Reem to Wendy, but obviously that didn't happen, so that wasn't the best look in terms of the edit. Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked to see him end up as the runner up. His edit already has some similarities to two recent runners up: Domenick (WarDog telling Reem that she was "too much" for him at tribal reminded me of Dom's confrontation with Chris during the Ghost Island premiere), and Angelina (who had the first confessional of DvG). I think Wentworth has a more classic runner up edit at this point though, so I think that WarDog may instead be the Joe Mena/Nick Iadanza extreme strategist mid-post-merge player.
14th person voted out: David -- I think that David has the most winner-like edit of the four returnees but Gavin's quote of "a new player needs to win this season" which was so heavily shown, will fulfill itself, which means that David won't win. His premiere edit reminded me of Christian's premiere edit in David vs Goliath, or even Kellyn's in Ghost Island. Both those players ended up in seventh position, so this seems like a good spot for David -- the fan favorite who could easily win that goes out right before the finale.
15th person voted out: Keith -- Keith had the most confessionals (five) by a long shot in the premiere, and it's clear that he's going to be a big character this season. Can he win? Yes, but he's not a topmost contender. First of all, the fact that he had the most confessionals is not great. Only two winners (Richard Hatch and Nick Wilson) have had the most confessionals in the premiere. The fact that Nick is one of them could be a saving grace since he was the most recent winner, and maybe the editors are changing things up, but I still think it's more likely to be a negative. Keith is already giving me huge Davie vibes, and his edit is shaping up to be a big journey, so sixth place is the most likely finish for Keith at this point.
---Second Edge of Extinction returner---: Eric -- See above for why I think the second returner will be Eric.
16th person voted out, ninth jury member: Eric -- Unfortunately for him, I think Eric will leave as soon as he gets back in the game. It makes sense, he'll be a huge jury threat so if he doesn't win immunity it'll make sense to take him out. His edit would support this, as unless he wins (which he could, but I think there are stronger winner contenders) he doesn't have a Final 4 edit as of now.
17th person voted out, tenth and final jury member: Rick Devens -- Devens is certainly a character and someone I expect to have a huge impact on the season. His edit is large so far, but he was in the promo (with Aubry, Wendy, and Joe) so that makes him very unlikely to win in my opinion. Not only that, but his premiere edit was not necessarily that of a winner. It's too goofy for a winner. The "OH YEAH!!!" stuff almost reminds me of some of Christian's content from DvG. They're setting Rick up as an underdog, and the final boot often gets an underdog edit. Also, he seems like a jury threat that isn't necessarily good at fire making, so it makes sense he'd go out here.
Final Three: Lauren O'Connell (winner, 5 jury votes), Kelley Wentworth (runner up, 3 jury votes), Ron Clark (second runner up, 2 jury votes)
The premiere was jam packed as it was the shortest premiere we've had in a while, and they only showed essential content for the most part. Lauren and Wentworth's relationship was given a big focus, and both individuals got great edits. I am officially predicting that they'll make FTC together and that Lauren will beat Wentworth as Lauren's edit was a more classic winner edit (better personal content) and Wentworth's edit of needing to make real emotional relationships was a flashback to Spencer's Second Chance runner up edit. All this, plus Gavin's newbie winner quote give Lauren the upper hand. As for Ron, his edit was larger than it needed to be, but a bit erratic, all great signs of a second runner up edit. Also, his quote about winning could be perceived as a winner quote, but it really reminded me of Mike White's quote from DvG. Call it a "decoy winner quote", something to give super fans the idea that they might win.
Last but not least, everyone ranked from most to least likely to win (no explanations):
Lauren
Aurora
Wentworth
Eric
Ron
WarDog
Keith
David
Victoria
Gavin
Rick
Joe
Wendy
Aubry
Julie
Chris
Julia
Reem
2nd person voted out: Aubry -- Oh how so much can change from the pre-season to the premiere. Going in, I thought Aubry had great odds of of making it deep yet again but she had by far the weakest premiere of all the returnees. I do believe that one returnee will be voted out pre-merge, and it seems destined to be Aubry. While she could last a bit longer than next episode, I believe she will go sooner rather than later, especially since Eric and Gavin, two players that the edit wants us to remember in positive light, want her gone soon.
3rd person voted out: Wendy -- I actually really like Wendy and think she represents a really awesome, unique archetype that we should see more of on Survivor. That said, she doesn't seem destined for a deep run in this game. Her edit had no longevity, and it's almost as if her story has already run its course -- she told us about her disability, her closest ally was Reem who is already gone, and she's on the outs of Manu (and I guarantee you Wentworth and Lauren will be working to keep the majority together).
4th person voted out: Julie -- Julie is a very interesting one in that she got a surprising amount of airtime for someone relatively irrelevant to the current game narrative. She had a bit of a "dodo edit" and the edit made sure to tell us that she's not at all outdoorsy. Her edit is two-sided: in terms of content, I can't see how she makes the merge. In terms of visibility: I'd be a bit surprised if she didn't. This is why I think she is our first of two EoE returners. She's set up for a journey arc: the city woman that has never gone camping finds it in herself to survive the Edge of Extinction and re-enter the game.
5th person voted out: Victoria -- One of the young, strategic females that received a decent premiere edit is the "Anna Khait" of this season -- the player that plays well and a lot of fans love, but that gets booted before the merge, sometimes due to being a swap victim. The candidates for the "Anna Khait" this season are Victoria, Aurora, Lauren, and Wentworth. I believe that Lauren and Wentworth both have a ton of longevity in their edit, so that really narrows it down to likely Victoria or Aurora. I'd lean towards it being Victoria as she had less personal content than Aurora, and the Anna Khait edit usually lacks personal content.
6th person voted out: Chris -- Chris was one of only two players to not receive a single premiere confessional. Not only is that a death nail to winner chances, but it likely means they will not play a major role in the season. I believe that Julia, the other confessional-less player, has a better chance of making it deep for two reasons: she seems to have a lot more potential than Chris based on pre-game interviews, and it's less unusual for her archetype to receive no air time. Chris is an alpha male type and was a star in the challenge, so it's very surprising how weak his edit was. I'm calling it now: he'll be the James Lim-type shock right-before-the-merge strong guy boot.
7th person voted out: Gavin -- The very last boot before the merge is often either a polarizing villain (Peter in Kaoh Rong, Bradley in Ghost Island) or a lovable hero (Sandra in Game Changers, Lyrsa in David vs Goliath). I am predicting that this season it will be the latter, and Gavin pretty much fits the bill. He's had a lot of good content, but some of it seems a little 'off'. The biggest red flag was when he talked about buying a fourth traffic light for his town if he was to win the game. Winners are usually shown either not talking about what they'd do with the money, or they talk about supporting their family with it, or putting it to a good cause (like Nick in DvG). A traffic light isn't exactly a "good cause" (unless it would be at a dangerous intersection and could save lives, and if that was the case, and Gavin was the winner, I think there would have been that explanation to go along with it). I'm having a bit of trouble pinpoiniting more reasons, but overall Gavin's edit feels just a bit "off" to me, and not unlike Lyrsa's edit in DvG, so I'm afraid to say it, but I'm not convinced he'll be there at the merge.
MERGE where Julie re-enters the game from Edge of Extinction -- See description above for why I think it'll be Julie.
8th person voted out: Aurora -- The merge boot often has the most winner-like edit of the season, outside of people in the Final 7. I really liked Aurora's premiere: airtime despite not being a major player in the overall narrative, and a key personal content soundbite telling us she is gay. Could she win? Absolutely, but someone that could win will be the merge boot, and her pre-season interviews telling us how confrontational she can be, plus the fact that most recent merge boots (Michelle in MvGX, Hali in Game Changers, Jessica in HHH, Elizabeth in DvG) have been youngish females, Aurora seems like the most likely candidate for merge boot.
9th person voted out: Julie -- As I described above, Julie pretty much has a pre-merge edit, just way too large of one. Visibility could be simply because she is the first EoE returner, and lack of complexity is probably because she gets voted out not long after re-entering the game.
10th person voted out: Eric -- Eric's edit was a bit of a hard one to read. It was certainly a "hero edit", and while that could correlate to a win, I am thinking it might not. I think Eric is one of those guys whose threat level is so large that they will be voted out not too long after the merge. Eric's edit doesn't necessarily seem like a boring early-post-merge boot though, so I am guessing that he will be the second EoE returner.
11th person voted out: Joe -- Joe is being edited just like he was in both Worlds Apart and Second Chance -- the golden boy. It wasn't a great edit sign when he said "I don't want to be too big of a threat" in a confessional, and the next scene was him starting fire. Joe is just not destined to reach the end game, and I see him falling in a similar position as his last two games.
12th person voted out: Julia -- It pains me to say this since she was my pre-season winner pick, but Julia is looking like that ultra-forgettable mid-post-merge boot (JP in HHH, Chelsea in Ghost Island). She had by far the weakest edit of the premiere, and simply put, cannot win the game. I am hopeful that her edit will spike at some point, and that we'll at least get some good content from her as she seems like a great person with gameplay potential, but she's not going to be the major character I was hoping, and thought she would be.
13th person voted out: WarDog -- WarDog was a tough one to rank. He had a pretty good edit, with a couple clear flaws. He got the first confessional of the season which in itself is a sign the editors want us to pay attention to him. Can he win? Yes, but he's not a top contender. The last thing we heard from him pre-tribal was that he'd like to flip the vote from Reem to Wendy, but obviously that didn't happen, so that wasn't the best look in terms of the edit. Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked to see him end up as the runner up. His edit already has some similarities to two recent runners up: Domenick (WarDog telling Reem that she was "too much" for him at tribal reminded me of Dom's confrontation with Chris during the Ghost Island premiere), and Angelina (who had the first confessional of DvG). I think Wentworth has a more classic runner up edit at this point though, so I think that WarDog may instead be the Joe Mena/Nick Iadanza extreme strategist mid-post-merge player.
14th person voted out: David -- I think that David has the most winner-like edit of the four returnees but Gavin's quote of "a new player needs to win this season" which was so heavily shown, will fulfill itself, which means that David won't win. His premiere edit reminded me of Christian's premiere edit in David vs Goliath, or even Kellyn's in Ghost Island. Both those players ended up in seventh position, so this seems like a good spot for David -- the fan favorite who could easily win that goes out right before the finale.
15th person voted out: Keith -- Keith had the most confessionals (five) by a long shot in the premiere, and it's clear that he's going to be a big character this season. Can he win? Yes, but he's not a topmost contender. First of all, the fact that he had the most confessionals is not great. Only two winners (Richard Hatch and Nick Wilson) have had the most confessionals in the premiere. The fact that Nick is one of them could be a saving grace since he was the most recent winner, and maybe the editors are changing things up, but I still think it's more likely to be a negative. Keith is already giving me huge Davie vibes, and his edit is shaping up to be a big journey, so sixth place is the most likely finish for Keith at this point.
---Second Edge of Extinction returner---: Eric -- See above for why I think the second returner will be Eric.
16th person voted out, ninth jury member: Eric -- Unfortunately for him, I think Eric will leave as soon as he gets back in the game. It makes sense, he'll be a huge jury threat so if he doesn't win immunity it'll make sense to take him out. His edit would support this, as unless he wins (which he could, but I think there are stronger winner contenders) he doesn't have a Final 4 edit as of now.
17th person voted out, tenth and final jury member: Rick Devens -- Devens is certainly a character and someone I expect to have a huge impact on the season. His edit is large so far, but he was in the promo (with Aubry, Wendy, and Joe) so that makes him very unlikely to win in my opinion. Not only that, but his premiere edit was not necessarily that of a winner. It's too goofy for a winner. The "OH YEAH!!!" stuff almost reminds me of some of Christian's content from DvG. They're setting Rick up as an underdog, and the final boot often gets an underdog edit. Also, he seems like a jury threat that isn't necessarily good at fire making, so it makes sense he'd go out here.
Final Three: Lauren O'Connell (winner, 5 jury votes), Kelley Wentworth (runner up, 3 jury votes), Ron Clark (second runner up, 2 jury votes)
The premiere was jam packed as it was the shortest premiere we've had in a while, and they only showed essential content for the most part. Lauren and Wentworth's relationship was given a big focus, and both individuals got great edits. I am officially predicting that they'll make FTC together and that Lauren will beat Wentworth as Lauren's edit was a more classic winner edit (better personal content) and Wentworth's edit of needing to make real emotional relationships was a flashback to Spencer's Second Chance runner up edit. All this, plus Gavin's newbie winner quote give Lauren the upper hand. As for Ron, his edit was larger than it needed to be, but a bit erratic, all great signs of a second runner up edit. Also, his quote about winning could be perceived as a winner quote, but it really reminded me of Mike White's quote from DvG. Call it a "decoy winner quote", something to give super fans the idea that they might win.
Last but not least, everyone ranked from most to least likely to win (no explanations):
Lauren
Aurora
Wentworth
Eric
Ron
WarDog
Keith
David
Victoria
Gavin
Rick
Joe
Wendy
Aubry
Julie
Chris
Julia
Reem
Wednesday, February 20, 2019
Assessing the post-merge castaways of Australian Survivor 2017
After the epic 2016 season of Australian Survivor, I am now on my first watch of Australian Survivor 2017. We are entering the merge phase and I am completely unspoiled which is fantastic.
Of course, being as into Edgic as I am, I am going to assess the castaways in terms of winner chances. Below you'll find a castaway-by-castaway assessment dissecting who can win this game. First, a couple of notes: I'm basing almost all my assessments on the edit. I found Australian Survivor 2016 to be edited very, very similarly to American Survivor so assuming 2017 is being edited the same way (so far, it seems to be), I think I have a good handle on the edit.
Top Contenders
Sarah: I've seen Sarah as a winner contender from Episode 1. She gets a ton of airtime, but it includes a lot of what you'd look for in a winner: personal content, confessionals at important moments in the episodes, editorial protection, and correct foreshadowing. The last couple of pre-merge episodes are often crucial in terms of how players, or more importantly, storylines, are portrayed. It's been clear that the underdog Asaga tribe is the main storyline heading into the merge, complete with two different players with quotes along the lines of "an Asaga is going to win this thing". This is very similar to the underdog new Vavau storyline from Aus2016 which proved to indeed include the winner. I am pretty darn confident that an Asaga will indeed win. While I think it's probably one of the four entering the merge on Asaga, it could theoretically be someone like Henry or Michelle who is now on Samatau, but was on Asaga for much of the season. Sarah has been on Asaga the entire game and has been seen as the strategic leader of that tribe at times. Unless she's the shock merge boot, which I really don't see at this point, she's poised for a very deep run, and is the lead contender for the win.
Tara: Tara is the clear #2 candidate for the win right now. She fits many of the same criteria as Sarah: new Asaga, has personal content, is seen as a very good strategic player, etc. She has had considerably less airtime than Sarah which is a tad concerning, especially since the last pre-merge episode was not her strongest episode. All that said, I'm not too worried as she did get good content at important points in the episode and the entire Asaga tribe, which she is part of, was the clear focus of that episode. Her edit feels a bit "light" and somewhat lacking in depth compared to Sarah's, but there's an incredible foundation laid for her to build on. While I believe that Tara is indeed poised for a long run, her edit has been concerningly similar to Conner's edit in Aus2016, so I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility of Tara being the merge boot.
Henry: Henry is a very interesting one. On paper, he's had one of the strongest edits of the season. He's been seen as able to adapt to any situation that gets thrown his way, he gets lots of airtime including personal content, he has strong relationships on both tribes, a Final 3 deal with Locky and Annelise, and a hidden immunity idol still in his pocket. He's had a totally classic winner edit so far, but he is not new Asaga which is the prevailing storyline right now. That said, I did notice that the quotes were "an Asaga will win" not a "new Asaga will win", so the saving grace for Henry could be that he started the game on Asaga, and if he works with the New Asaga 4 in a merge situation, he could very easily be seen as "an Asaga". If I'm overestimating Sarah or the new Asaga storyline, Henry's probably the winner.
Contenders
Jericho: There are a few players (Jericho, Annalise, and Locky) who have all received winner-esque edits that don't feel quite right. Jericho is catapulted to the top of this group for the simple fact that he is a New Asaga, as well as the fact that his edit has consistently grown in visibility throughout the pre-merge, a good trait of a winner edit. He's had some excellent scenes (weirdly enough, I feel the cookie incident was edited in favor of Jericho), but he's also been seen as a devilish, impulsive sidekick to Luke at times. I see Jericho making it deep, and the next few episodes will be key in seeing where Jericho's story is going. At this point I predict the New Asaga 4 staying together for a while, and the Final 2 could easily be two of the New Asaga 4. At this point I see Jericho as a runner up more than anything else, but if his edit gets more positive tones, and if a lead contender like Sarah's edit slows down, Jericho's winner chances could rise.
Annalise: If I am completely overestimating the edit of New Asaga and a Saamatau pulls this off, Annalise is poised to take control. She's made some very questionable moves but most of them have been protected, at least to an extent, by the edit. In addition to being a Saamatu, my biggest concern for Annalise is that she had very little airtime in the first five episodes. Normally, that would be a death nail for winner chances, but in a 26 episode season, maybe it's not. I do believe that Annalise has strong alliances and a number of options moving forward, not to mention a hidden immunity idol, so winner or not, I predict a deep run for Annalise.
Locky: Locky has had a large edit, but it is severely lacking in depth. Very little personal content and oddly placed confessionals top my list of concerns about his edit, not to mention the fact that he is another Saamatau. The one thing that Locky really has going for him is that he's had tons of positive second person visibility and he's had perhaps the most consistent edit in terms of confessional counts, of anyone left in the game. Can he win? Yes, but only if the New Asaga story is completely irrelevant in the end game as Locky has been painted as the leader of Saamatu, Asaga's enemy tribe.
Michelle: Michelle has had a consistent edit, but it has been nearly strictly strategical, and certainly lacking in personal content. She strikes me as the Kellyn Bechtold or Brooke Jowett of this season -- the female strategic powerhouse that is eventually determined to be too big of a threat and voted out mid-post-merge. Although she's New Saamatau, she was Original Asaga, and like Henry, I could see her working with the New Asaga 4 post-merge. So, if the Asaga storyline will be the prevailing one, as I predict it will be, Michelle could be a big part of that, and that's what keeps her hanging on as a contender for the win.
Long Shots
Luke: Luke would have one of the oddest winner edits in history if he pulls this thing off. He's been shown is erratic, goofy, and flat-out stupid at times. But what have we did we say about Tony Vlahos at the Cagayan merge? That he'd have one of the oddest winner edits in history. When a winner is such an eccentric character, producers are not going to hide all of the crazy content in favor of a classic winner edit. That said, I do believe they would have at least toned down some of Luke's craziness, especially in the easily forgettable but all important premiere, where he was painted to be a total lunatic. He's at the top of the long shots group only because, for better or worse, he is playing hard, and he is New Asaga.
Ziggy: Ziggy has played a pretty solid pre-merge games (with some serious flaws). Oddly enough, the edit has seemed to focus on her flaws more than her successes. In the last immunity challenge, Jericho was painted as the hero, even though Ziggy outlasted him. It's like her good moments are under edited and her bad moments are over edited. She is holding the most powerful idol in Survivor history and I believe that she has gotten the Carl Boudreaux edit -- lots of airtime, but only because she holds a critical advantage. I suspect Ziggy will play her super idol, and then be promptly voted out. When will this happen? Who knows, but if I had to guess, I'd say mid-post-merge, just like Carl. All her personal content keeps her off the bottom in terms of winner chances.
Nearly Out of Contention:
Tessa: Oh Tessa, oh Tessa. I had such high hopes for her until around Episode 10. She played so well out of the gate, got so much personal content, many confessionals, you name it. But she has been I-N-V-I-S-I-B-L-E for the past five episodes. That pretty much is a death nail during one of the most important stretches of the game, edit wise. I considered labeling her Out of Contention, but I still have this far out belief (maybe it's more of a hope) that if her edit spikes again at the merge that she could maybe, just maybe pull it off. If her edit stays weak she will firmly drop out of contention though.
Out of Contention
Peter: Peter has had a fair amount of airtime, but he's been perceived as weak and irrelevant to the overall storyline of the season. He's had no personal content, no properly timed confessionals, and no solid relationships with anyone (other than Tessa, who is also going nowhere edit wise). Peter can't win this game.
Jerrad: And that brings us to the least likely person to win the game. Jerrad has had multiple episodes with no confessionals, and his only working relationship was with AJ who is long gone. Jerrad is destined to be that early-pre-merge ultra forgettable boot. Sorry Jerrad, but you're the most forgettable character of the season.
Well, there we have it! I can't wait to see how accurate my predictions are and how the rest of this season plays out. I'm hoping for an epic post-merge!
Of course, being as into Edgic as I am, I am going to assess the castaways in terms of winner chances. Below you'll find a castaway-by-castaway assessment dissecting who can win this game. First, a couple of notes: I'm basing almost all my assessments on the edit. I found Australian Survivor 2016 to be edited very, very similarly to American Survivor so assuming 2017 is being edited the same way (so far, it seems to be), I think I have a good handle on the edit.
Top Contenders
Sarah: I've seen Sarah as a winner contender from Episode 1. She gets a ton of airtime, but it includes a lot of what you'd look for in a winner: personal content, confessionals at important moments in the episodes, editorial protection, and correct foreshadowing. The last couple of pre-merge episodes are often crucial in terms of how players, or more importantly, storylines, are portrayed. It's been clear that the underdog Asaga tribe is the main storyline heading into the merge, complete with two different players with quotes along the lines of "an Asaga is going to win this thing". This is very similar to the underdog new Vavau storyline from Aus2016 which proved to indeed include the winner. I am pretty darn confident that an Asaga will indeed win. While I think it's probably one of the four entering the merge on Asaga, it could theoretically be someone like Henry or Michelle who is now on Samatau, but was on Asaga for much of the season. Sarah has been on Asaga the entire game and has been seen as the strategic leader of that tribe at times. Unless she's the shock merge boot, which I really don't see at this point, she's poised for a very deep run, and is the lead contender for the win.
Tara: Tara is the clear #2 candidate for the win right now. She fits many of the same criteria as Sarah: new Asaga, has personal content, is seen as a very good strategic player, etc. She has had considerably less airtime than Sarah which is a tad concerning, especially since the last pre-merge episode was not her strongest episode. All that said, I'm not too worried as she did get good content at important points in the episode and the entire Asaga tribe, which she is part of, was the clear focus of that episode. Her edit feels a bit "light" and somewhat lacking in depth compared to Sarah's, but there's an incredible foundation laid for her to build on. While I believe that Tara is indeed poised for a long run, her edit has been concerningly similar to Conner's edit in Aus2016, so I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility of Tara being the merge boot.
Henry: Henry is a very interesting one. On paper, he's had one of the strongest edits of the season. He's been seen as able to adapt to any situation that gets thrown his way, he gets lots of airtime including personal content, he has strong relationships on both tribes, a Final 3 deal with Locky and Annelise, and a hidden immunity idol still in his pocket. He's had a totally classic winner edit so far, but he is not new Asaga which is the prevailing storyline right now. That said, I did notice that the quotes were "an Asaga will win" not a "new Asaga will win", so the saving grace for Henry could be that he started the game on Asaga, and if he works with the New Asaga 4 in a merge situation, he could very easily be seen as "an Asaga". If I'm overestimating Sarah or the new Asaga storyline, Henry's probably the winner.
Contenders
Jericho: There are a few players (Jericho, Annalise, and Locky) who have all received winner-esque edits that don't feel quite right. Jericho is catapulted to the top of this group for the simple fact that he is a New Asaga, as well as the fact that his edit has consistently grown in visibility throughout the pre-merge, a good trait of a winner edit. He's had some excellent scenes (weirdly enough, I feel the cookie incident was edited in favor of Jericho), but he's also been seen as a devilish, impulsive sidekick to Luke at times. I see Jericho making it deep, and the next few episodes will be key in seeing where Jericho's story is going. At this point I predict the New Asaga 4 staying together for a while, and the Final 2 could easily be two of the New Asaga 4. At this point I see Jericho as a runner up more than anything else, but if his edit gets more positive tones, and if a lead contender like Sarah's edit slows down, Jericho's winner chances could rise.
Annalise: If I am completely overestimating the edit of New Asaga and a Saamatau pulls this off, Annalise is poised to take control. She's made some very questionable moves but most of them have been protected, at least to an extent, by the edit. In addition to being a Saamatu, my biggest concern for Annalise is that she had very little airtime in the first five episodes. Normally, that would be a death nail for winner chances, but in a 26 episode season, maybe it's not. I do believe that Annalise has strong alliances and a number of options moving forward, not to mention a hidden immunity idol, so winner or not, I predict a deep run for Annalise.
Locky: Locky has had a large edit, but it is severely lacking in depth. Very little personal content and oddly placed confessionals top my list of concerns about his edit, not to mention the fact that he is another Saamatau. The one thing that Locky really has going for him is that he's had tons of positive second person visibility and he's had perhaps the most consistent edit in terms of confessional counts, of anyone left in the game. Can he win? Yes, but only if the New Asaga story is completely irrelevant in the end game as Locky has been painted as the leader of Saamatu, Asaga's enemy tribe.
Michelle: Michelle has had a consistent edit, but it has been nearly strictly strategical, and certainly lacking in personal content. She strikes me as the Kellyn Bechtold or Brooke Jowett of this season -- the female strategic powerhouse that is eventually determined to be too big of a threat and voted out mid-post-merge. Although she's New Saamatau, she was Original Asaga, and like Henry, I could see her working with the New Asaga 4 post-merge. So, if the Asaga storyline will be the prevailing one, as I predict it will be, Michelle could be a big part of that, and that's what keeps her hanging on as a contender for the win.
Long Shots
Luke: Luke would have one of the oddest winner edits in history if he pulls this thing off. He's been shown is erratic, goofy, and flat-out stupid at times. But what have we did we say about Tony Vlahos at the Cagayan merge? That he'd have one of the oddest winner edits in history. When a winner is such an eccentric character, producers are not going to hide all of the crazy content in favor of a classic winner edit. That said, I do believe they would have at least toned down some of Luke's craziness, especially in the easily forgettable but all important premiere, where he was painted to be a total lunatic. He's at the top of the long shots group only because, for better or worse, he is playing hard, and he is New Asaga.
Ziggy: Ziggy has played a pretty solid pre-merge games (with some serious flaws). Oddly enough, the edit has seemed to focus on her flaws more than her successes. In the last immunity challenge, Jericho was painted as the hero, even though Ziggy outlasted him. It's like her good moments are under edited and her bad moments are over edited. She is holding the most powerful idol in Survivor history and I believe that she has gotten the Carl Boudreaux edit -- lots of airtime, but only because she holds a critical advantage. I suspect Ziggy will play her super idol, and then be promptly voted out. When will this happen? Who knows, but if I had to guess, I'd say mid-post-merge, just like Carl. All her personal content keeps her off the bottom in terms of winner chances.
Nearly Out of Contention:
Tessa: Oh Tessa, oh Tessa. I had such high hopes for her until around Episode 10. She played so well out of the gate, got so much personal content, many confessionals, you name it. But she has been I-N-V-I-S-I-B-L-E for the past five episodes. That pretty much is a death nail during one of the most important stretches of the game, edit wise. I considered labeling her Out of Contention, but I still have this far out belief (maybe it's more of a hope) that if her edit spikes again at the merge that she could maybe, just maybe pull it off. If her edit stays weak she will firmly drop out of contention though.
Out of Contention
Peter: Peter has had a fair amount of airtime, but he's been perceived as weak and irrelevant to the overall storyline of the season. He's had no personal content, no properly timed confessionals, and no solid relationships with anyone (other than Tessa, who is also going nowhere edit wise). Peter can't win this game.
Jerrad: And that brings us to the least likely person to win the game. Jerrad has had multiple episodes with no confessionals, and his only working relationship was with AJ who is long gone. Jerrad is destined to be that early-pre-merge ultra forgettable boot. Sorry Jerrad, but you're the most forgettable character of the season.
Well, there we have it! I can't wait to see how accurate my predictions are and how the rest of this season plays out. I'm hoping for an epic post-merge!
Thursday, January 24, 2019
Assessing the post-merge castaways of Australian Survivor 2016
After watching all 37 seasons of American Survivor, and rewatching most of them, sometimes several times, I've finally given in to trying out Australian Survivor. And what can I say? I've reached the merge of 2016 and it made my top 5 pre-merge seasons in Survivor history. I hoped Australian Survivor would be good, but I had no idea in my wildest dreams that it would be this good. It truly just feels like another season of Survivor.
I feel like in order to watch this season "correctly" I need to make predictions and assess the castaways just as I would any other "new" season of Survivor. Below you'll find a castaway-by-castaway assessment dissecting who can win this game. First, a couple of notes: I'm basing almost all my assessments on the edit. I have heard that Australian Survivor is edited very similarly to American Survivor, but with some unique twists. That's all I have to go on. Without further ado, here's the assessment:
Top Contenders
Kate: Kate enters the merge with #1 odds for several reasons. First of all, there are only three members of the newest Vavau tribe and ever since the main (3 tribe to 2 tribe) swap the editorial focus has been on Vavau. Vavau losing every challenge, Vavau's strategy, Vavau's tribal bonds, so on. There has been unusually little focus on Saanapu. The focus has been Vavau's losing streak rather than Saanapu's winning streak. All this, plus Craig's unusually edited exit with the words "somebody on this tribe better win" all lead me to believe that one of the Vavauians will likely pull this off. So why Kate over Christie or Conner? Overall she has the most well-rounded and strongest "winner edit". The original Vavau tribe was on a giant winning streak, but despite winning, they were edited to be the goofballs that couldn't make fire and had bad camp life. They were likely edited this way to foreshadow the eventual downfall of Vavau, but it also painted their tribe members to be somewhat incapable, which is not what you want to see in a winner. The one person that was not painted in this light was Kate. She was seen as the positive energy among a group of debbie downers. The person that got the confessional when something good happened for the tribe but never when something bad happened. Other highlights of her edit include last couple episodes when there have been quotes of other players saying "Kate can win this whole game" or "Kate's a serious threat out here". Other plusses for her edit are lots of personal content and a good story arc. The only downside to her edit is that she's had incorrect foreshadowing several times, especially regarding Vavau's ability to win challenges. That's a red flag, but given that Australian Survivor editing is supposed to be a bit different than American Survivor editing, and also given that Nick Wilson (winner of David vs Goliath) had incorrect foreshadowing at times, I don't think it's enough to knock Kate off the #1 spot.
Christie: Christie was new Vavau so would also fit the bill for someone from new Vavau winning. She was old Aganoa which could be seen as a plus sense old Vavau was edited to be a trainwreck. Her edit is overall very favorable and I'm still intrigued by her early paranoia which got more airtime than it needed to. I think Christie is set for a deep run, especially since her edit picked up right as Phoebe was eliminated. If the ally of the "Anna Khait edit" ends up winning, the winner's edit usually picks up right as the "Anna Khait" is eliminated (think Michele in Kaoh Rong). Christie has had enough personal content, a large enough story arc, and enough gameplay focus to be a top contender. The only things that knock her a peg below Kate are a few very subtle negative tones in her edit, and some continued comments that she's "too paranoid" (though that could just be adding to her story arc).
Conner: It was a bit tough deciding whether to rank Christie or Conner higher, but I ultimately chose to rank Christie higher since her edit has grown throughout the pre-merge, whereas Conner started out strong and then dropped off a bit. That said, he's an old Saanapu, new Vavau and throughout the season has had a very winner-esque edit (his premiere was probably the strongest of anyone left in the game). He's had the personal content, he has a story arc, he has good relationships (his strongest being with Kate). There was also the quote this past episode of Kate and Conner wanting to go to the end together. Could that be foreshadowing of both of them in the FTC? Quite possibly. Conner's edit has felt a bit "light" and "lacking" compared to Kate and Christie but if it picks up at the merge Conner could be as likely as anyone to win.
Contenders
Flick: If Flick was new Vavau she may be a top contender, but sense I believe the winner comes from new Vavau, I have to put her at the top of the next group instead. As I said, new Saanapu has been weirdly ignored in the edit, but when they do show new Saanapu, Flick is the lead narrator and it's clear that the editors don't want us to forget her. She was in control of old Saanapu and seems to be the lead strategist on new Saanapu. Numbers wise, she appears to enter the merge in one of the strongest positions. Her edit seems "off" compared to the three new Vavau tribe members (less personal content etc) but like Conner, if her edit picks up at the merge, and if the new Vavau storyline fades, Flick could easily become the top contender.
Lee: Lee had a fantastic edit when he was on Aganoa with plenty of personal content and successful strategy. He got concerningly few confessionals on new Saanapu but the editors did go out of their way to show him fishing, show his relationship with Sam, etc. It's clear that Lee is a major part of this season, and he's another one whose edit could pick up at the merge and head towards a win.
Nick: Nick is a very interesting one. I haven't counted confessionals, but it wouldn't surprise me if he has the most of anyone entering the merge. His edit has been undeniably huge, but has it been a winner edit? Hard to say. He's clearly been edited as the Tony Vlachos/Joe Mena overplaying but entertaining villain edit. I see him more as a Joe -- someone whose overplaying will eventually get the best of them, probably mid-post-merge, but there's still the chance that he is a Tony that ends up pulling it all off. If he was to win, his edit needs to actually slow down a bit, his play needs to become more methodical and less emotional, and he also needs a bit more personal content and a few more stronger bonds.
Jenna Louise: Although Jenna Louise is by no means a villain, her edit is somewhat similar to Nick's in that it has been very large, but not necessarily a winner edit. I feel that I need to at least consider her as a contender due to the size of her edit alone, and maybe in Australian Survivor, the winner will get less personal content, or the personal content will start later in the season. That said, her edit has been nearly strictly strategic, and a winner generally has more than that. Her edit was more of an Anna Khait than a winner, and I'm a bit surprised she's still her TBH. Where do I see her edit going? She could be the runner up, the merge boot, the winner, or one of the last boots, in that order of likelihood.
Long Shots
Sam: Sam has had a relatively large edit, but I feel it's been primarily circumstantial, in that he's only been shown when he's relative to a larger story (for example, the first swap that he was a part of). He lacks much personal content and hasn't made any or at least many strategic moves. The one thing that keeps him at the top of the long shots group is his bromance with Lee which has gotten a lot of focus, and Sam has been the main one talking about the bromance in confessionals.
Brooke: Brooke would be a bigger contender if her edit had kicked off sooner. She's shown to be strategic and she's had at least a little bit of personal content, but only in the last four or five episodes. Before that, zilch, notta, nothing. With Australian Survivor having 12 extra episodes, maybe a winner edit wouldn't kick off until late-pre-merge, but I have a heard time believing that the winner would be so heavily ignored for so long. Another strike against Brooke is that she's tight with Flick, but has continually been shown as the "second wheel" in that alliance, rather than an equal, never a good sign for a winner.
El: El is the longest shot of the long shots, and is not lower, simply because there's not much bad to say about her. There's also not much good to say about her. She's been... there. She's clearly been second to Lee, she hasn't had much airtime, I mean, what can I say? Her edit needs to pick up N-O-W for her to have any shot. Realistically, her best hope is probably for an Alison Raybould-type edit-spike at the merge and to become a significant part of the game before her eventual, inevitable vote-out.
Nearly out of contention
Matt: Matt winning would be so odd I don't even know what to say. The only reason he's not in the bottom two in terms of chances is how large his edit has been. In terms of number of confessionals, he should be a winner contender. Except for his dominance in puzzles, he's been seen as either a goofball or a whiny brat, whether it's his jealousy of Lee for taking his "Charlie's angels" away from him, or his stupid idea to free the chickens. In American Survivor, I'd probably consider him out of contention, but this is Australian Survivor, and if they want to give us the weirdest winner edit in Survivor history, well maybe, just maybe, they will. But I don't think so.
Kylie: Kylie's first few episodes keep her off the bottom. She started out strong with personal content, an idol find, plenty of positive tone, you name it. But from the time she wasted her idol on she's been edited as someone with a terrible social game that fundamentally does not seem to know how to play Survivor. That's the last way you want to enter the merge, and unfortunately, I don't see a way for her to turn it around. Prove me wrong Kylie.
Out of Contention
Sue: Sue won't win. Let's just settle that right now. She had virtually no air time until Brooke took her to Saanapu, and even then, way less than I would expect she would have had being part of such a unique twist. She has been perceived as a goat that has very little strategic ability and is just along for the ride. Dare I say it, she makes Kylie look like a Survivor genius. Sue will probably be the ultra-forgettable mid-post-merge boot. If she makes it to the finale I'll be floored.
Well, there we have it! I can't wait to see how accurate my predictions are and how the rest of this awesome season plays out.
I feel like in order to watch this season "correctly" I need to make predictions and assess the castaways just as I would any other "new" season of Survivor. Below you'll find a castaway-by-castaway assessment dissecting who can win this game. First, a couple of notes: I'm basing almost all my assessments on the edit. I have heard that Australian Survivor is edited very similarly to American Survivor, but with some unique twists. That's all I have to go on. Without further ado, here's the assessment:
Top Contenders
Kate: Kate enters the merge with #1 odds for several reasons. First of all, there are only three members of the newest Vavau tribe and ever since the main (3 tribe to 2 tribe) swap the editorial focus has been on Vavau. Vavau losing every challenge, Vavau's strategy, Vavau's tribal bonds, so on. There has been unusually little focus on Saanapu. The focus has been Vavau's losing streak rather than Saanapu's winning streak. All this, plus Craig's unusually edited exit with the words "somebody on this tribe better win" all lead me to believe that one of the Vavauians will likely pull this off. So why Kate over Christie or Conner? Overall she has the most well-rounded and strongest "winner edit". The original Vavau tribe was on a giant winning streak, but despite winning, they were edited to be the goofballs that couldn't make fire and had bad camp life. They were likely edited this way to foreshadow the eventual downfall of Vavau, but it also painted their tribe members to be somewhat incapable, which is not what you want to see in a winner. The one person that was not painted in this light was Kate. She was seen as the positive energy among a group of debbie downers. The person that got the confessional when something good happened for the tribe but never when something bad happened. Other highlights of her edit include last couple episodes when there have been quotes of other players saying "Kate can win this whole game" or "Kate's a serious threat out here". Other plusses for her edit are lots of personal content and a good story arc. The only downside to her edit is that she's had incorrect foreshadowing several times, especially regarding Vavau's ability to win challenges. That's a red flag, but given that Australian Survivor editing is supposed to be a bit different than American Survivor editing, and also given that Nick Wilson (winner of David vs Goliath) had incorrect foreshadowing at times, I don't think it's enough to knock Kate off the #1 spot.
Christie: Christie was new Vavau so would also fit the bill for someone from new Vavau winning. She was old Aganoa which could be seen as a plus sense old Vavau was edited to be a trainwreck. Her edit is overall very favorable and I'm still intrigued by her early paranoia which got more airtime than it needed to. I think Christie is set for a deep run, especially since her edit picked up right as Phoebe was eliminated. If the ally of the "Anna Khait edit" ends up winning, the winner's edit usually picks up right as the "Anna Khait" is eliminated (think Michele in Kaoh Rong). Christie has had enough personal content, a large enough story arc, and enough gameplay focus to be a top contender. The only things that knock her a peg below Kate are a few very subtle negative tones in her edit, and some continued comments that she's "too paranoid" (though that could just be adding to her story arc).
Conner: It was a bit tough deciding whether to rank Christie or Conner higher, but I ultimately chose to rank Christie higher since her edit has grown throughout the pre-merge, whereas Conner started out strong and then dropped off a bit. That said, he's an old Saanapu, new Vavau and throughout the season has had a very winner-esque edit (his premiere was probably the strongest of anyone left in the game). He's had the personal content, he has a story arc, he has good relationships (his strongest being with Kate). There was also the quote this past episode of Kate and Conner wanting to go to the end together. Could that be foreshadowing of both of them in the FTC? Quite possibly. Conner's edit has felt a bit "light" and "lacking" compared to Kate and Christie but if it picks up at the merge Conner could be as likely as anyone to win.
Contenders
Flick: If Flick was new Vavau she may be a top contender, but sense I believe the winner comes from new Vavau, I have to put her at the top of the next group instead. As I said, new Saanapu has been weirdly ignored in the edit, but when they do show new Saanapu, Flick is the lead narrator and it's clear that the editors don't want us to forget her. She was in control of old Saanapu and seems to be the lead strategist on new Saanapu. Numbers wise, she appears to enter the merge in one of the strongest positions. Her edit seems "off" compared to the three new Vavau tribe members (less personal content etc) but like Conner, if her edit picks up at the merge, and if the new Vavau storyline fades, Flick could easily become the top contender.
Lee: Lee had a fantastic edit when he was on Aganoa with plenty of personal content and successful strategy. He got concerningly few confessionals on new Saanapu but the editors did go out of their way to show him fishing, show his relationship with Sam, etc. It's clear that Lee is a major part of this season, and he's another one whose edit could pick up at the merge and head towards a win.
Nick: Nick is a very interesting one. I haven't counted confessionals, but it wouldn't surprise me if he has the most of anyone entering the merge. His edit has been undeniably huge, but has it been a winner edit? Hard to say. He's clearly been edited as the Tony Vlachos/Joe Mena overplaying but entertaining villain edit. I see him more as a Joe -- someone whose overplaying will eventually get the best of them, probably mid-post-merge, but there's still the chance that he is a Tony that ends up pulling it all off. If he was to win, his edit needs to actually slow down a bit, his play needs to become more methodical and less emotional, and he also needs a bit more personal content and a few more stronger bonds.
Jenna Louise: Although Jenna Louise is by no means a villain, her edit is somewhat similar to Nick's in that it has been very large, but not necessarily a winner edit. I feel that I need to at least consider her as a contender due to the size of her edit alone, and maybe in Australian Survivor, the winner will get less personal content, or the personal content will start later in the season. That said, her edit has been nearly strictly strategic, and a winner generally has more than that. Her edit was more of an Anna Khait than a winner, and I'm a bit surprised she's still her TBH. Where do I see her edit going? She could be the runner up, the merge boot, the winner, or one of the last boots, in that order of likelihood.
Long Shots
Sam: Sam has had a relatively large edit, but I feel it's been primarily circumstantial, in that he's only been shown when he's relative to a larger story (for example, the first swap that he was a part of). He lacks much personal content and hasn't made any or at least many strategic moves. The one thing that keeps him at the top of the long shots group is his bromance with Lee which has gotten a lot of focus, and Sam has been the main one talking about the bromance in confessionals.
Brooke: Brooke would be a bigger contender if her edit had kicked off sooner. She's shown to be strategic and she's had at least a little bit of personal content, but only in the last four or five episodes. Before that, zilch, notta, nothing. With Australian Survivor having 12 extra episodes, maybe a winner edit wouldn't kick off until late-pre-merge, but I have a heard time believing that the winner would be so heavily ignored for so long. Another strike against Brooke is that she's tight with Flick, but has continually been shown as the "second wheel" in that alliance, rather than an equal, never a good sign for a winner.
El: El is the longest shot of the long shots, and is not lower, simply because there's not much bad to say about her. There's also not much good to say about her. She's been... there. She's clearly been second to Lee, she hasn't had much airtime, I mean, what can I say? Her edit needs to pick up N-O-W for her to have any shot. Realistically, her best hope is probably for an Alison Raybould-type edit-spike at the merge and to become a significant part of the game before her eventual, inevitable vote-out.
Nearly out of contention
Matt: Matt winning would be so odd I don't even know what to say. The only reason he's not in the bottom two in terms of chances is how large his edit has been. In terms of number of confessionals, he should be a winner contender. Except for his dominance in puzzles, he's been seen as either a goofball or a whiny brat, whether it's his jealousy of Lee for taking his "Charlie's angels" away from him, or his stupid idea to free the chickens. In American Survivor, I'd probably consider him out of contention, but this is Australian Survivor, and if they want to give us the weirdest winner edit in Survivor history, well maybe, just maybe, they will. But I don't think so.
Kylie: Kylie's first few episodes keep her off the bottom. She started out strong with personal content, an idol find, plenty of positive tone, you name it. But from the time she wasted her idol on she's been edited as someone with a terrible social game that fundamentally does not seem to know how to play Survivor. That's the last way you want to enter the merge, and unfortunately, I don't see a way for her to turn it around. Prove me wrong Kylie.
Out of Contention
Sue: Sue won't win. Let's just settle that right now. She had virtually no air time until Brooke took her to Saanapu, and even then, way less than I would expect she would have had being part of such a unique twist. She has been perceived as a goat that has very little strategic ability and is just along for the ride. Dare I say it, she makes Kylie look like a Survivor genius. Sue will probably be the ultra-forgettable mid-post-merge boot. If she makes it to the finale I'll be floored.
Well, there we have it! I can't wait to see how accurate my predictions are and how the rest of this awesome season plays out.
Friday, January 11, 2019
Survivor: Blood vs Water - strategic credit
I recently rewatched Survivor: Blood vs Water and decided to do something a bit different during my rewatch. I thought I'd give one or two players "credit" for each vote of the season. If one player nearly singlehandedly made the vote happen (such as Aras with the first Laura M. vote), I give that one person full credit. If more than one person made the vote happen, I give full credit to the player that had the most influence, and half credit to the player that was second most important in making the vote happen. Full credit = 2 points, half credit = 1 point.
I recognize that the strategic game is only one of three aspects of Survivor, and that there's strategy beyond just votes, but this was something fun to do that at least gives some insight as to how hard each player played. Read on to find out who was behind the vote outs of Blood vs Water! *Note: the first two vote offs (Candice and Laura B.) are not included here as each player was voting on their own merit only.
Marissa: Brad Culpepper (full credit) and John Cody (half credit) -- There is no denying the fact that Brad Culpepper was behind most of the early-game strategy on Tadhana. He was the leader of the men's alliance and most of the guys did what he said. I debated only giving him credit for this move, but he did consult John who is the first person that threw out Marissa's name (though I'm almost positive that Brad would have named her about two seconds later).
Rachel: Vytas Baskauskas (full credit) and Brad Culpepper (half credit) -- Vytas and Brad were both instrumental with this one so I struggled with who to give full credit but it was pretty clearly Vytas that came up with the idea of voting someone off who's loved one might switch, so I went with him. After he came up with that idea and named Rachel, Brad contacted Hayden and Caleb to lock in the votes so he more than earned his half credit.
John: Brad Culpepper (full credit) and Ciera Eastin (half credit) -- The John vote was primarily Brad's doing but I felt Ciera deserved a half credit because earlier in the episode, she was the first person to name John as a smart player to vote for, and who knows how much that influenced Brad's later decision to oust John.
Brad: Caleb Bankston (full credit) and Ciera Eastin (half credit) -- I contemplated only giving Caleb credit for this one as he is the one that flipped the script and saved Ciera. That said, it was clear at tribal that Caleb "did not want Ciera to go home" and that that was part of his reason for flipping. Earlier in the episode we had seen Ciera making social connections to Caleb, and who knows how much influence those conversations had on Caleb's decision making, so I felt that Ciera earned half credit.
Laura M. #1: Aras Baskauskas (full credit) -- And now we come to the first vote that was orchestrated single-handedly. Aras played Laura M. like a fiddle, she said that she trusted him "completely". But at that point he was still aligned with Tyson's alliance, and came up with the brilliant plan to oust Laura, due to her challenge strength, he hoped that she could beat Culpepper at Redemption who would be a threat at the merge. Aras' plan worked to perfection and everyone voted against Laura M.
Kat: Monica Culpepper (full credit) and Tina Wesson (half credit) -- In a way Kat got herself voted out. She poorly orchestrated a plan to oust Monica but when Tina told that to Monica, Monica instead orchestrated the elimination of Kat. Tina started the ball rolling by telling Monica but then Monica made the vote happen.
Laura B: Tina Wesson (full credit) and Monica Culpepper (half credit) -- To be perfectly honest, Laura B pretty much did herself in by telling Vytas he was going. But the plan was to vote out Vytas until Laura B did that, and Tina and Monica were the people that made the vote switch. It was hard to decide which one of them should get full credit. I ended up giving it to Tina because she's the one that told Vytas to vote Laura B, making her look a little bit more in control of the vote than Monica.
Aras: Tyson Apostol (full credit) and Ciera Eastin (half credit) -- Once the merge hit, Tyson emerged from his shell and set out to play one of the most dominant post-merge games Survivor has ever seen. Starting with this Aras vote, his name was on every vote (except the rock draw) as either full or half credit. Tyson knew Aras was a threat and that he needed to get him out, and he made it happen. Ciera definitely deserves half credit here as she got her and her mom's votes with the singles rather than the couples.
Vytas: Laura Morett (full credit) and Tyson Apostol (half credit) -- Throughout the season Laura M. was amazing physically and decent socially, but not super strong strategically. This was her one big move. She recognized and convinced the entire alliance that Vytas should go before Tina/Katie. Tyson helped spread the word to Gervase and Monica to make sure they where on board, but Laura took the lead on this one.
Tina #1: Tyson Apostol (full credit) -- This was probably the most straightforward vote of the season, and that's part of the reason that it only took one person to make it happen. Katie and Tina were on the outs and Katie had the immunity necklace so that left one person to vote for. Tyson told everyone "Tina" and the deal was done.
Laura M. #2: Tyson Apostol (full credit) and Ciera Eastin (half credit) -- This is an interesting one, because at face value, it was Tyson that made this move happen (in fact, after the immunity challenge Ciera was campaigning to get Katie out briefly, and Tyson convinced her to go for her mom). Therefore Tyson gets full credit for the move. Ciera more than earned her half credit though as she was willing to vote out her mom (even before Tyson mentioned it), and when she did, it was one of the most emotionally tough votes ever cast in Survivor history. The interesting part of this one is that, for that reason, had Tyson and Ciera both made FTC, I think the jury would have given Ciera full credit for the move, even though Tyson really deserved it. This is a good example of my "system" being entirely centered around strategic credit, but the social game is just as important, if not more, and Ciera truly excelled socially.
Caleb: Ciera Eastin (full credit) and Tyson Apostol (half credit) -- This was one of the more dynamic votes of the season as at least three names were being thrown around, an idol was played, and I don't think anyone felt safe. It's also one that both Ciera and Tyson deserve a lot of credit for. In the end I give Ciera the credit, simply because she had the opportunity to go with Hayden/Caleb/Katie and not only chose not to, but told Tyson about their plan, and named Caleb for elimination. She was in control of that vote, Tyson just helped round up the troops to ensure it happened.
Katie (rock draw): Ciera Eastin (full credit) and Hayden Moss (half credit) -- This was not only the most dynamic vote of the season, but is up there in terms of all-time great tribals. Ciera entered tribal tight with Tyson/Monica/Gervase but Hayden did a brilliant job convincing her she was #4 (and Gervase helped Hayden's case by repeatedly calling her #4 at tribal). Then, Ciera forced the first modern rock draw in Survivor history. Unfortunately for her and Hayden, their ally Katie drew the wrong rock, but they did what they could to make a Big. Move. and I respect the hell out of that. To be perfectly honest, both Hayden and Ciera deserve full credit for this move, but I give full credit to Ciera for two reasons: first off, Hayden had nothing to lose, Ciera had everything. You can talk all day long, but if Hayden's hand was going in that bag of rocks, would he have made the move? Who knows. Not many people in Survivor history have. Ciera not only talked the talk, but walked the walk. Also, I do think that Gervase blowing it at tribal was almost, or just as influential on Ciera as Hayden's speech was, which might make Hayden's influence a little less important.
Hayden: Tyson Apostol (full credit) and Monica Culpepper (half credit) -- This was actually one of the toughest votes of the season to give credit for. Tyson and Gervase really only had one option on who to vote for since Ciera had immunity but I still got the sense that Gervase would do whatever Tyson wanted him to, so I give him credit for sticking with his alliance. I also give Monica half credit since Ciera and Hayden tried their best to flip her, but she stuck with the guys. One thing I want to point out here is that you can get strategic credit for making a move, even if it's not necessarily the best move for your game. I do believe that at this point in the game, Monica was in a bit of a lose-lose spot. She was never going to beat Tyson. She was never going to beat Ciera. That said, I think her best bet was to flip and by doing so "make a move", and hope that Laura or Tina would reenter the game and that she could vote out Ciera and sit next to that person and Hayden at FTC. Even then I don't know if she'd win, Hayden had a pretty darn good game going as did Laura M., but it was probably her best chance.
Ciera: Gervase Peterson (full credit) and Tyson Apostol (half credit) -- Tyson made an interesting decision at the F5 to let Gervase and Monica decide who to vote for. Not sure if I agree with that move or not, but it was quickly clear that Gervase wanted Ciera out (IMO this was the better move) and Monica wanted Tina out. Gervase got his way so clearly he deserves full credit. I contemplated not giving anyone half credit, but especially since Gervase didn't mention the Ciera vote as a big move of his at FTC, I think that off camera Tyson did help convince Monica that Ciera was the right F5 boot.
Tina #2: Tyson Apostol (full credit) -- Despite Tina's best efforts to flip Monica and force fire, the final vote really was straightforward once Tyson won final immunity. He reassured Gervase and Monica that the best Final 3 was the three of them and the deal was done.
TO RECAP, each player's game:
Tyson Apostol (13 points) -- There's a reason that Tyson is the eighth best in my winner rankings. His Blood vs Water strategic game was straight up fantastic. He controlled nearly every vote post-merge. He found two idols. He won the last two immunity challenges. He convinced Gerv and Monica to be his "goats". The social game was his biggest flaw, but with the exception of Vytas, it didn't matter, especially after an exceptionally good FTC.
Ciera Eastin (8 points) -- Stay tuned for an article as to why I believe Ciera is the second best player to never win, but first let me recap her Blood vs Water game here: she played so well this season. Far and away, the second best player of the season. The question is would she have beaten Tyson? I think so. Very very likely. And her social game is why. Yes, her strategic game was great (the Laura M vote and the rock draw being her two biggest of many moves) but so was Tyson's, but she had so many more friends on the jury than Tyson. And true friends, not just people that liked her. And there's no question that she would have beaten anyone but Tyson. I respect the hell out of Ciera for what she did at the F6 tribal. It was risky, but you gotta play to win. She got a bit of bad luck that night, and I just would have loved to see what would have happened had Tyson drawn the white rock. I bet Ciera would be our winner.
Brad Culpepper (5 points) -- Giving credit only where it's due, Tyson and Ciera were the two strategic stars of Blood vs Water. And that becomes obvious when the person with the third most points was one of the early season boots. Culpepper played hard, but I would argue, way too hard. He was pretty poor socially, and even though he's a strong guy, he couldn't win a challenge for his tribe. Just because you have a lot of points, doesn't mean you're a super smart player. Culpepper is a good example of that.
Monica Culpepper (4 points) -- Monica not only lasted longer than Brad in Blood vs Water but also played a whole lot better (despite receiving one less strategic point). Post-swap she made a couple good moves but unfortunately for her she became complacent post-merge in the Tyson alliance and failed to make a big move when she could have. She won three immunity challenges and her social game was average, not bad as it is made out to be. Monica's game can best be summarized as one that had a lot of potential, but never really took off.
Tina Wesson (3 points) -- Tina is an interesting one. Like Monica, her only real good moves were post-swap but her social game was one of the best of the season, and physically she was quite good as she proved on Redemption Island. Would she have beaten Tyson? I say no, Tyson dominated, but some say yes, just because of her social game. Tina is a good example of a player whose entire game is not demonstrated on this type of credit list.
Vytas Baskauskas (2 points) -- Vytas made one big move early on with the Rachel vote. Other than that he never really took off strategically, but like Tina, he had a great social game (the way he handled himself on the post-swap Galang tribe is an excellent example). Tyson and his gang got the best of Vytas which is a real shame because I feel he had more game in him.
Aras Baskauskas (2 points) -- Aras is an interesting one. He had a really good game going socially, strategically, and physically. He only went to tribal once pre-merge but orchestrated the vote that night. It seems as if he may have overplayed a bit, as Tyson recognized him as a strategic threat and promptly voted him out at the merge. If Tyson and no-one else had recognized him as said threat, I think Aras would have had a deep run and could have possibly won again.
Caleb Bankston (2 points) -- Caleb was definitely an underrated player, partly due to the fact that he was under-edited. His only successful strategic move was the big Brad Culpepper blindside, but that was a huge one that took some guts to pull off. I have mad respect for that move. He also tried to make a move at the F7, but ultimately it's the move that backfired on him. I think he'd be a great player in a Second Chance type season, but tragically that will never happen.
Gervase Peterson (2 points) -- With no disrespect meant, Gervase played a pretty poor game on all levels. The Ciera blindside was his one keystone move, but for all the other votes he simply followed Tyson. You could call him a goat. Socially he wasn't much better and although he won one individual challenge, so did everyone in the F5 and the two people he was next to at FTC both won more than one. So yes, I hate to say it, but he didn't deserve any votes at FTC.
Laura Morett (2 points) -- In both her seasons, Laura took a backseat strategically while playing excellent physical and decent social games, making her lack of points somewhat misleading of her game overall. She did take the lead on the Vytas vote and that was her one big strategic move.
John Cody (1 point) -- John is a player that never really had a chance to take off as he was an early Brad victim. If he'd stuck around I think he could have become quite a good strategic player.
Hayden Moss (1 point) -- If Brad is the example of a player that can become incredibly "overrated" by a ranking like this, Hayden is the player that becomes drastically "underrated". 1 point is not a good overview of Hayden's game. Unfortunately for him, he played from a minority position for much of the game, which limited his ability to get credit for moves, but he was trying everything he could throughout the game and never took his eye off the prize. He was instrumental at the rock draw tribal, and I wish my system allowed him to get more than 1 point for that. His social game was on point and he's no slouch physically. This guy needs to come back to Survivor and try his hand again, he's a darn good player.
Candice Cody, Rupert Boneham, Marissa Peterson, Rachel Fougler, Colton Cumbie, Kat Edorson, Laura Boneham, Katie Collins (0 points) -- With the exception of Katie, all these players were pre-merge boots who either never really had the chance to play, quit, or made dumb moves at one of their first tribals, resulting in their elimination. Katie, well, what can I say. She made it deep in the game but just never really "played" (except for her one challenge win). She was drug along until she picked the wrong rock.
I recognize that the strategic game is only one of three aspects of Survivor, and that there's strategy beyond just votes, but this was something fun to do that at least gives some insight as to how hard each player played. Read on to find out who was behind the vote outs of Blood vs Water! *Note: the first two vote offs (Candice and Laura B.) are not included here as each player was voting on their own merit only.
Marissa: Brad Culpepper (full credit) and John Cody (half credit) -- There is no denying the fact that Brad Culpepper was behind most of the early-game strategy on Tadhana. He was the leader of the men's alliance and most of the guys did what he said. I debated only giving him credit for this move, but he did consult John who is the first person that threw out Marissa's name (though I'm almost positive that Brad would have named her about two seconds later).
Rachel: Vytas Baskauskas (full credit) and Brad Culpepper (half credit) -- Vytas and Brad were both instrumental with this one so I struggled with who to give full credit but it was pretty clearly Vytas that came up with the idea of voting someone off who's loved one might switch, so I went with him. After he came up with that idea and named Rachel, Brad contacted Hayden and Caleb to lock in the votes so he more than earned his half credit.
John: Brad Culpepper (full credit) and Ciera Eastin (half credit) -- The John vote was primarily Brad's doing but I felt Ciera deserved a half credit because earlier in the episode, she was the first person to name John as a smart player to vote for, and who knows how much that influenced Brad's later decision to oust John.
Brad: Caleb Bankston (full credit) and Ciera Eastin (half credit) -- I contemplated only giving Caleb credit for this one as he is the one that flipped the script and saved Ciera. That said, it was clear at tribal that Caleb "did not want Ciera to go home" and that that was part of his reason for flipping. Earlier in the episode we had seen Ciera making social connections to Caleb, and who knows how much influence those conversations had on Caleb's decision making, so I felt that Ciera earned half credit.
Laura M. #1: Aras Baskauskas (full credit) -- And now we come to the first vote that was orchestrated single-handedly. Aras played Laura M. like a fiddle, she said that she trusted him "completely". But at that point he was still aligned with Tyson's alliance, and came up with the brilliant plan to oust Laura, due to her challenge strength, he hoped that she could beat Culpepper at Redemption who would be a threat at the merge. Aras' plan worked to perfection and everyone voted against Laura M.
Kat: Monica Culpepper (full credit) and Tina Wesson (half credit) -- In a way Kat got herself voted out. She poorly orchestrated a plan to oust Monica but when Tina told that to Monica, Monica instead orchestrated the elimination of Kat. Tina started the ball rolling by telling Monica but then Monica made the vote happen.
Laura B: Tina Wesson (full credit) and Monica Culpepper (half credit) -- To be perfectly honest, Laura B pretty much did herself in by telling Vytas he was going. But the plan was to vote out Vytas until Laura B did that, and Tina and Monica were the people that made the vote switch. It was hard to decide which one of them should get full credit. I ended up giving it to Tina because she's the one that told Vytas to vote Laura B, making her look a little bit more in control of the vote than Monica.
Aras: Tyson Apostol (full credit) and Ciera Eastin (half credit) -- Once the merge hit, Tyson emerged from his shell and set out to play one of the most dominant post-merge games Survivor has ever seen. Starting with this Aras vote, his name was on every vote (except the rock draw) as either full or half credit. Tyson knew Aras was a threat and that he needed to get him out, and he made it happen. Ciera definitely deserves half credit here as she got her and her mom's votes with the singles rather than the couples.
Vytas: Laura Morett (full credit) and Tyson Apostol (half credit) -- Throughout the season Laura M. was amazing physically and decent socially, but not super strong strategically. This was her one big move. She recognized and convinced the entire alliance that Vytas should go before Tina/Katie. Tyson helped spread the word to Gervase and Monica to make sure they where on board, but Laura took the lead on this one.
Tina #1: Tyson Apostol (full credit) -- This was probably the most straightforward vote of the season, and that's part of the reason that it only took one person to make it happen. Katie and Tina were on the outs and Katie had the immunity necklace so that left one person to vote for. Tyson told everyone "Tina" and the deal was done.
Laura M. #2: Tyson Apostol (full credit) and Ciera Eastin (half credit) -- This is an interesting one, because at face value, it was Tyson that made this move happen (in fact, after the immunity challenge Ciera was campaigning to get Katie out briefly, and Tyson convinced her to go for her mom). Therefore Tyson gets full credit for the move. Ciera more than earned her half credit though as she was willing to vote out her mom (even before Tyson mentioned it), and when she did, it was one of the most emotionally tough votes ever cast in Survivor history. The interesting part of this one is that, for that reason, had Tyson and Ciera both made FTC, I think the jury would have given Ciera full credit for the move, even though Tyson really deserved it. This is a good example of my "system" being entirely centered around strategic credit, but the social game is just as important, if not more, and Ciera truly excelled socially.
Caleb: Ciera Eastin (full credit) and Tyson Apostol (half credit) -- This was one of the more dynamic votes of the season as at least three names were being thrown around, an idol was played, and I don't think anyone felt safe. It's also one that both Ciera and Tyson deserve a lot of credit for. In the end I give Ciera the credit, simply because she had the opportunity to go with Hayden/Caleb/Katie and not only chose not to, but told Tyson about their plan, and named Caleb for elimination. She was in control of that vote, Tyson just helped round up the troops to ensure it happened.
Katie (rock draw): Ciera Eastin (full credit) and Hayden Moss (half credit) -- This was not only the most dynamic vote of the season, but is up there in terms of all-time great tribals. Ciera entered tribal tight with Tyson/Monica/Gervase but Hayden did a brilliant job convincing her she was #4 (and Gervase helped Hayden's case by repeatedly calling her #4 at tribal). Then, Ciera forced the first modern rock draw in Survivor history. Unfortunately for her and Hayden, their ally Katie drew the wrong rock, but they did what they could to make a Big. Move. and I respect the hell out of that. To be perfectly honest, both Hayden and Ciera deserve full credit for this move, but I give full credit to Ciera for two reasons: first off, Hayden had nothing to lose, Ciera had everything. You can talk all day long, but if Hayden's hand was going in that bag of rocks, would he have made the move? Who knows. Not many people in Survivor history have. Ciera not only talked the talk, but walked the walk. Also, I do think that Gervase blowing it at tribal was almost, or just as influential on Ciera as Hayden's speech was, which might make Hayden's influence a little less important.
Hayden: Tyson Apostol (full credit) and Monica Culpepper (half credit) -- This was actually one of the toughest votes of the season to give credit for. Tyson and Gervase really only had one option on who to vote for since Ciera had immunity but I still got the sense that Gervase would do whatever Tyson wanted him to, so I give him credit for sticking with his alliance. I also give Monica half credit since Ciera and Hayden tried their best to flip her, but she stuck with the guys. One thing I want to point out here is that you can get strategic credit for making a move, even if it's not necessarily the best move for your game. I do believe that at this point in the game, Monica was in a bit of a lose-lose spot. She was never going to beat Tyson. She was never going to beat Ciera. That said, I think her best bet was to flip and by doing so "make a move", and hope that Laura or Tina would reenter the game and that she could vote out Ciera and sit next to that person and Hayden at FTC. Even then I don't know if she'd win, Hayden had a pretty darn good game going as did Laura M., but it was probably her best chance.
Ciera: Gervase Peterson (full credit) and Tyson Apostol (half credit) -- Tyson made an interesting decision at the F5 to let Gervase and Monica decide who to vote for. Not sure if I agree with that move or not, but it was quickly clear that Gervase wanted Ciera out (IMO this was the better move) and Monica wanted Tina out. Gervase got his way so clearly he deserves full credit. I contemplated not giving anyone half credit, but especially since Gervase didn't mention the Ciera vote as a big move of his at FTC, I think that off camera Tyson did help convince Monica that Ciera was the right F5 boot.
Tina #2: Tyson Apostol (full credit) -- Despite Tina's best efforts to flip Monica and force fire, the final vote really was straightforward once Tyson won final immunity. He reassured Gervase and Monica that the best Final 3 was the three of them and the deal was done.
TO RECAP, each player's game:
Tyson Apostol (13 points) -- There's a reason that Tyson is the eighth best in my winner rankings. His Blood vs Water strategic game was straight up fantastic. He controlled nearly every vote post-merge. He found two idols. He won the last two immunity challenges. He convinced Gerv and Monica to be his "goats". The social game was his biggest flaw, but with the exception of Vytas, it didn't matter, especially after an exceptionally good FTC.
Ciera Eastin (8 points) -- Stay tuned for an article as to why I believe Ciera is the second best player to never win, but first let me recap her Blood vs Water game here: she played so well this season. Far and away, the second best player of the season. The question is would she have beaten Tyson? I think so. Very very likely. And her social game is why. Yes, her strategic game was great (the Laura M vote and the rock draw being her two biggest of many moves) but so was Tyson's, but she had so many more friends on the jury than Tyson. And true friends, not just people that liked her. And there's no question that she would have beaten anyone but Tyson. I respect the hell out of Ciera for what she did at the F6 tribal. It was risky, but you gotta play to win. She got a bit of bad luck that night, and I just would have loved to see what would have happened had Tyson drawn the white rock. I bet Ciera would be our winner.
Brad Culpepper (5 points) -- Giving credit only where it's due, Tyson and Ciera were the two strategic stars of Blood vs Water. And that becomes obvious when the person with the third most points was one of the early season boots. Culpepper played hard, but I would argue, way too hard. He was pretty poor socially, and even though he's a strong guy, he couldn't win a challenge for his tribe. Just because you have a lot of points, doesn't mean you're a super smart player. Culpepper is a good example of that.
Monica Culpepper (4 points) -- Monica not only lasted longer than Brad in Blood vs Water but also played a whole lot better (despite receiving one less strategic point). Post-swap she made a couple good moves but unfortunately for her she became complacent post-merge in the Tyson alliance and failed to make a big move when she could have. She won three immunity challenges and her social game was average, not bad as it is made out to be. Monica's game can best be summarized as one that had a lot of potential, but never really took off.
Tina Wesson (3 points) -- Tina is an interesting one. Like Monica, her only real good moves were post-swap but her social game was one of the best of the season, and physically she was quite good as she proved on Redemption Island. Would she have beaten Tyson? I say no, Tyson dominated, but some say yes, just because of her social game. Tina is a good example of a player whose entire game is not demonstrated on this type of credit list.
Vytas Baskauskas (2 points) -- Vytas made one big move early on with the Rachel vote. Other than that he never really took off strategically, but like Tina, he had a great social game (the way he handled himself on the post-swap Galang tribe is an excellent example). Tyson and his gang got the best of Vytas which is a real shame because I feel he had more game in him.
Aras Baskauskas (2 points) -- Aras is an interesting one. He had a really good game going socially, strategically, and physically. He only went to tribal once pre-merge but orchestrated the vote that night. It seems as if he may have overplayed a bit, as Tyson recognized him as a strategic threat and promptly voted him out at the merge. If Tyson and no-one else had recognized him as said threat, I think Aras would have had a deep run and could have possibly won again.
Caleb Bankston (2 points) -- Caleb was definitely an underrated player, partly due to the fact that he was under-edited. His only successful strategic move was the big Brad Culpepper blindside, but that was a huge one that took some guts to pull off. I have mad respect for that move. He also tried to make a move at the F7, but ultimately it's the move that backfired on him. I think he'd be a great player in a Second Chance type season, but tragically that will never happen.
Gervase Peterson (2 points) -- With no disrespect meant, Gervase played a pretty poor game on all levels. The Ciera blindside was his one keystone move, but for all the other votes he simply followed Tyson. You could call him a goat. Socially he wasn't much better and although he won one individual challenge, so did everyone in the F5 and the two people he was next to at FTC both won more than one. So yes, I hate to say it, but he didn't deserve any votes at FTC.
Laura Morett (2 points) -- In both her seasons, Laura took a backseat strategically while playing excellent physical and decent social games, making her lack of points somewhat misleading of her game overall. She did take the lead on the Vytas vote and that was her one big strategic move.
John Cody (1 point) -- John is a player that never really had a chance to take off as he was an early Brad victim. If he'd stuck around I think he could have become quite a good strategic player.
Hayden Moss (1 point) -- If Brad is the example of a player that can become incredibly "overrated" by a ranking like this, Hayden is the player that becomes drastically "underrated". 1 point is not a good overview of Hayden's game. Unfortunately for him, he played from a minority position for much of the game, which limited his ability to get credit for moves, but he was trying everything he could throughout the game and never took his eye off the prize. He was instrumental at the rock draw tribal, and I wish my system allowed him to get more than 1 point for that. His social game was on point and he's no slouch physically. This guy needs to come back to Survivor and try his hand again, he's a darn good player.
Candice Cody, Rupert Boneham, Marissa Peterson, Rachel Fougler, Colton Cumbie, Kat Edorson, Laura Boneham, Katie Collins (0 points) -- With the exception of Katie, all these players were pre-merge boots who either never really had the chance to play, quit, or made dumb moves at one of their first tribals, resulting in their elimination. Katie, well, what can I say. She made it deep in the game but just never really "played" (except for her one challenge win). She was drug along until she picked the wrong rock.
Tuesday, January 8, 2019
Top 15 Non-Winners
It's no secret that many of the show's best players are winners. It only makes sense, right? Well, yes it does, but there are also those players who played so well that some argue they should have won.
Before I dive into my 15 best players to never win, I want to make it clear that I am judging players on their entire Survivor careers, not just a single game. For example, someone like Lex Van den Berg might have played one of the 15 best non-winning single games in Africa but his All Stars game loses him a spot on this list. Without further ado, here we go:
#15 David Wright (Survivor: Millennials vs Gen X) -- David is one of those who could be higher up if this was a ranking of single games, and I admit that creating the list the way I am makes it a bit biased towards multi-time players, simply because they've had more of a chance to prove themselves. That said, 15th is no small feat and David absolutely earned this spot. He was one challenge away from a guaranteed win and with the new F4 format, he may have gotten it. I can't wait to see how he fares in Edge of Extinction.
#14 Russell Hantz (Survivor: Samoa, Survivor: Heroes vs Villains, Survivor: Redemption Island) -- Russell was a very tough one to rank. Strategically he may be the best to never win. He made it to the end twice and in both those seasons was the mastermind behind the majority of big moves. That said, he is one of the worst social players in the show's history, and despite his strategic prowess, I have a hard time seeing Russell ever winning a jury vote. And that's the sole reason he's so low on this list.
#13 Andrea Boehlke (Survivor: Redemption Island, Survivor: Caramoan, Survivor: Game Changers) -- Although she was still finding her footing a bit in RI, her Caramoan and Game Changers games were excellent displays of strategy, social play, and physical prowess. The reasons she is this low are the fact that she's never made the true end game (except in RI when she only had a slim chance of winning), and the fact that she was voted out with an idol in her pocket in Caramoan (though I'll give her that she couldn't have necessarily seen that blindside coming).
#12 Malcolm Freberg (Survivor: Philippines, Survivor: Caramoan, Survivor: Game Changers) -- Malcolm's Philippines game was fantastic except for his minor blunders at the end. I have real questions about his Caramoan game. The double idol play was amazing on the surface, but why. Philip? He could've taken out a real threat like Andrea or Cochran but failed to do so. I don't hold his early Game Changers exit against him as it happened due to a series of events completely out of his control. In fact, I like Malcolm's GC game as for the few rounds he lasted he seemed to be playing well.
#11 Tai Trang (Survivor: Kaoh Rong, Survivor: Game Changers) -- Tai has a higher average days-lasted record than any other multi-time player. That's pretty frickin' impressive. He was also amazingly close to winning, or at least tying, in GC had Culpepper not made the dumb move of taking Sarah to FTC. I do have critiques about his Kaoh Rong game but overall I can't ignore the fact that he's played very well and made it extremely far not once, but twice.
#10 Jerri Manthey (Survivor: The Australian Outback, Survivor: All Stars, Survivor: Heroes vs Villains) -- Aus. Outback was so early that most of the play was social and physical over strategic, and Jerri wasn't the best. Her All Stars game was very decent for a pre-merge game, and her HvV game was nearly a winning game. Overall not the very best, but definitely an extremely good, non-winner.
#9 Aubry Bracco (Survivor: Kaoh Rong, Survivor: Game Changers) -- Aubry's 38 days average is not far behind Tai's record 38.5. I believe her Game Changers game was a bit quiet (though socially she made some big improvements from KR). Her Kaoh Rong game was extremely strong strategically and she was a wonderful physical competitor in both her seasons. She's nearly the entire package when it comes to a Survivor player, and I'll have my eyes on her during Edge of Extinction.
#8 Kelley Wentworth (Survivor: San Juan del Sur, Survivor: Cambodia) -- Wentworth is another that could be even higher if this was a ranking of single non-winning games as her Cambodia appearance was a work of art. Her pre-merge exit in SJDS did knock her down a few pegs but I do believe that by and large she was a swap victim, and that her exit was out of her control. She has all the makings of a Survivor winner, and was dangerously close in Cambodia. Can she pull it off? I'm hoping that she can in EoE.
#7 Spencer Bledsoe (Survivor: Cagayan, Survivor: Cambodia) -- Spencer's Cagayan game, although it has a few flaws, would have definitely won him the votes if he made FTC. He played amazingly well for such a young, first-time player. I have more critiques of his Cambodia game as he didn't get a single jury vote and made some questionable social moves, though his strategy and physical prowess were still strong. He definitely deserves his ranking on this list.
#6 Ozzy Lusth (Survivor: Cook Islands, Survivor: Micronesia, Survivor: South Pacific, Survivor: Game Changers) -- Oh Ozzy. Still one of the most debated-about contestants to this day. Some people claim he's the best to never win while others don't think anything of him at all. Personally, I am somewhere in the middle. I don't think you can actually deny that he is a great player. I have Yul ranked as the second best winner ever and Ozzy was one vote away from beating him at FTC in the Cooks. Personally, I think South Pacific was his best game as he was one challenge away from a guaranteed win and played with gumption that season. Although his earliest exit, I personally felt he was playing fairly well in Game Changers too. The reason he doesn't quite make the Top 5 non-winners is his Micronesia game. Sure, he tried to play, but TBH he failed, and was voted out with an idol in his pocket (and unlike Andrea's blindside in Caramoan, he should have been able to see his blindside coming).
#5 Domenick Abbate (Survivor: Ghost Island) -- It speaks to the strength of Dom's game that he was able to land a Top 5 spot on this list with only one appearance. I'm not taking anything away from Wendell's game, I think he deserved to win, but Dom really controlled the season strategically (while Wendell controlled it socially). They were one of the most dynamic duos in Survivor history and the 5-5-0 jury vote was 100% justified. In the end, Wendell's social play edged out Dom, but it was a slight edge and Dom came so close to winning that season. Closer than any other non-winner in history.
#4 Amanda Kimmel (Survivor: China, Survivor: Micronesia, Survivor: Heroes vs Villains) -- Amanda is an interesting one. Like Russell, ten spots lower on this list, Amanda made it to FTC twice but never won. On the surface, there's a legit argument for why she should be lower on this list too. But when you dive deeper into her game, there's a lot more there. Amanda is fully capable of winning Survivor, she would just need the right jury and she'd need to be sitting next to the right people. She plays well enough socially, strategically, and physically to win. Her biggest fault is her FTC performances. She can't close it out. It doesn't help that in both China and Micro the juries came in to FTC with open minds. In a season like Ghost Island where people pretty much had their minds made up going into FTC, Amanda would stand a better shot. It also doesn't help that Amanda was next to great players (Todd and Parvati) who also played extremely well throughout the season, and who are both very strong at FTC. What you can't argue is that Amanda knows how to get herself to the end game (she was closer than people realize in HvV too) and in the right situation, could win.
#3 Rob Cesternino (Survivor: The Amazon, Survivor: All Stars) -- Cesternino is another interesting one to rank. IMHO, the three best non-winning single games in history are probably Cesternino in The Amazon and Cirie in Micronesia. Cesternino would be in a solid second place on this list if it wasn't for his All Stars game. It really wasn't the best. He was lazy around camp and over-played. That said, I overall still believe that Rob deserves this high ranking because his Amazon game really was a work of art, and it's possible/likely that one of the reasons for his early vote-out in All Stars was his reputation, not what he actually did in All Stars.
#2 Ciera Eastin (Survivor: Blood vs Water, Survivor: Cambodia, Survivor: Game Changers) -- This may be my most controversial placement of anyone on this list but I'm ready to defend it all day long. I actually plan to write a full article at some point on why Ciera is the second best player to never win, but a brief summary for now: she plays the game hard. So many people on this list (Amanda is a wonderful example) don't always capitalize on their opportunities to, in Ciera's words, Play To Win. Ciera does. In either BvW or Cambodia I struggle to see her losing FTC, regardless of who she sits next to (yes, even Tyson). She made it very close to the FTC in BvW (without RI in play she was in the F4), and I truly believe she would have made it very deep, quite possibly FTC, in Cambodia, had she not been idoled out. And what about Game Changers, you ask? I really believe that it was her past reputation more than her GC game that got her voted out, so I don't hold that against her. It's actually a compliment. I'm essentially giving Cesternino, Ciera, and Cirie all one "free pass" for their early exits, since their other game(s) outshine the early exits.
#1 Cirie Fields (Survivor: Panama, Survivor: Micronesia, Survivor: Heroes vs Villains, Survivor: Game Changers) -- There is no doubt in my mind that Cirie is the best to never win. She's one notch above everyone else on this list. Like Cesternino and Ciera, Cirie had one early exit but her other three games are all works of art. She was the best player of both Panama and Micronesia, being the last boot both times. I ultimately believe her Game Changers performance may have been her best as she was on track to win it all until that notorious F6 tribal. I'll be the first to say that it was "fair" what happened there as Cirie couldn't win an immunity challenge or get an advantage/idol, yet to a large extent, what happened was totally out of her control. And she was playing so well. Another reason I love her GC game is that she made it so deep despite being such a target. She should have been out at her first tribal, but the other players let her go deep, and that's because of her phenomenal social/strategic games. I'm not sure if it'll happen or not, but I would absolutely love to see Cirie back for a fifth time. I wouldn't be shocked to see her make it deep again, and maybe she could finally win.
Before I dive into my 15 best players to never win, I want to make it clear that I am judging players on their entire Survivor careers, not just a single game. For example, someone like Lex Van den Berg might have played one of the 15 best non-winning single games in Africa but his All Stars game loses him a spot on this list. Without further ado, here we go:
#15 David Wright (Survivor: Millennials vs Gen X) -- David is one of those who could be higher up if this was a ranking of single games, and I admit that creating the list the way I am makes it a bit biased towards multi-time players, simply because they've had more of a chance to prove themselves. That said, 15th is no small feat and David absolutely earned this spot. He was one challenge away from a guaranteed win and with the new F4 format, he may have gotten it. I can't wait to see how he fares in Edge of Extinction.
#14 Russell Hantz (Survivor: Samoa, Survivor: Heroes vs Villains, Survivor: Redemption Island) -- Russell was a very tough one to rank. Strategically he may be the best to never win. He made it to the end twice and in both those seasons was the mastermind behind the majority of big moves. That said, he is one of the worst social players in the show's history, and despite his strategic prowess, I have a hard time seeing Russell ever winning a jury vote. And that's the sole reason he's so low on this list.
#13 Andrea Boehlke (Survivor: Redemption Island, Survivor: Caramoan, Survivor: Game Changers) -- Although she was still finding her footing a bit in RI, her Caramoan and Game Changers games were excellent displays of strategy, social play, and physical prowess. The reasons she is this low are the fact that she's never made the true end game (except in RI when she only had a slim chance of winning), and the fact that she was voted out with an idol in her pocket in Caramoan (though I'll give her that she couldn't have necessarily seen that blindside coming).
#12 Malcolm Freberg (Survivor: Philippines, Survivor: Caramoan, Survivor: Game Changers) -- Malcolm's Philippines game was fantastic except for his minor blunders at the end. I have real questions about his Caramoan game. The double idol play was amazing on the surface, but why. Philip? He could've taken out a real threat like Andrea or Cochran but failed to do so. I don't hold his early Game Changers exit against him as it happened due to a series of events completely out of his control. In fact, I like Malcolm's GC game as for the few rounds he lasted he seemed to be playing well.
#11 Tai Trang (Survivor: Kaoh Rong, Survivor: Game Changers) -- Tai has a higher average days-lasted record than any other multi-time player. That's pretty frickin' impressive. He was also amazingly close to winning, or at least tying, in GC had Culpepper not made the dumb move of taking Sarah to FTC. I do have critiques about his Kaoh Rong game but overall I can't ignore the fact that he's played very well and made it extremely far not once, but twice.
#10 Jerri Manthey (Survivor: The Australian Outback, Survivor: All Stars, Survivor: Heroes vs Villains) -- Aus. Outback was so early that most of the play was social and physical over strategic, and Jerri wasn't the best. Her All Stars game was very decent for a pre-merge game, and her HvV game was nearly a winning game. Overall not the very best, but definitely an extremely good, non-winner.
#9 Aubry Bracco (Survivor: Kaoh Rong, Survivor: Game Changers) -- Aubry's 38 days average is not far behind Tai's record 38.5. I believe her Game Changers game was a bit quiet (though socially she made some big improvements from KR). Her Kaoh Rong game was extremely strong strategically and she was a wonderful physical competitor in both her seasons. She's nearly the entire package when it comes to a Survivor player, and I'll have my eyes on her during Edge of Extinction.
#8 Kelley Wentworth (Survivor: San Juan del Sur, Survivor: Cambodia) -- Wentworth is another that could be even higher if this was a ranking of single non-winning games as her Cambodia appearance was a work of art. Her pre-merge exit in SJDS did knock her down a few pegs but I do believe that by and large she was a swap victim, and that her exit was out of her control. She has all the makings of a Survivor winner, and was dangerously close in Cambodia. Can she pull it off? I'm hoping that she can in EoE.
#7 Spencer Bledsoe (Survivor: Cagayan, Survivor: Cambodia) -- Spencer's Cagayan game, although it has a few flaws, would have definitely won him the votes if he made FTC. He played amazingly well for such a young, first-time player. I have more critiques of his Cambodia game as he didn't get a single jury vote and made some questionable social moves, though his strategy and physical prowess were still strong. He definitely deserves his ranking on this list.
#6 Ozzy Lusth (Survivor: Cook Islands, Survivor: Micronesia, Survivor: South Pacific, Survivor: Game Changers) -- Oh Ozzy. Still one of the most debated-about contestants to this day. Some people claim he's the best to never win while others don't think anything of him at all. Personally, I am somewhere in the middle. I don't think you can actually deny that he is a great player. I have Yul ranked as the second best winner ever and Ozzy was one vote away from beating him at FTC in the Cooks. Personally, I think South Pacific was his best game as he was one challenge away from a guaranteed win and played with gumption that season. Although his earliest exit, I personally felt he was playing fairly well in Game Changers too. The reason he doesn't quite make the Top 5 non-winners is his Micronesia game. Sure, he tried to play, but TBH he failed, and was voted out with an idol in his pocket (and unlike Andrea's blindside in Caramoan, he should have been able to see his blindside coming).
#5 Domenick Abbate (Survivor: Ghost Island) -- It speaks to the strength of Dom's game that he was able to land a Top 5 spot on this list with only one appearance. I'm not taking anything away from Wendell's game, I think he deserved to win, but Dom really controlled the season strategically (while Wendell controlled it socially). They were one of the most dynamic duos in Survivor history and the 5-5-0 jury vote was 100% justified. In the end, Wendell's social play edged out Dom, but it was a slight edge and Dom came so close to winning that season. Closer than any other non-winner in history.
#4 Amanda Kimmel (Survivor: China, Survivor: Micronesia, Survivor: Heroes vs Villains) -- Amanda is an interesting one. Like Russell, ten spots lower on this list, Amanda made it to FTC twice but never won. On the surface, there's a legit argument for why she should be lower on this list too. But when you dive deeper into her game, there's a lot more there. Amanda is fully capable of winning Survivor, she would just need the right jury and she'd need to be sitting next to the right people. She plays well enough socially, strategically, and physically to win. Her biggest fault is her FTC performances. She can't close it out. It doesn't help that in both China and Micro the juries came in to FTC with open minds. In a season like Ghost Island where people pretty much had their minds made up going into FTC, Amanda would stand a better shot. It also doesn't help that Amanda was next to great players (Todd and Parvati) who also played extremely well throughout the season, and who are both very strong at FTC. What you can't argue is that Amanda knows how to get herself to the end game (she was closer than people realize in HvV too) and in the right situation, could win.
#3 Rob Cesternino (Survivor: The Amazon, Survivor: All Stars) -- Cesternino is another interesting one to rank. IMHO, the three best non-winning single games in history are probably Cesternino in The Amazon and Cirie in Micronesia. Cesternino would be in a solid second place on this list if it wasn't for his All Stars game. It really wasn't the best. He was lazy around camp and over-played. That said, I overall still believe that Rob deserves this high ranking because his Amazon game really was a work of art, and it's possible/likely that one of the reasons for his early vote-out in All Stars was his reputation, not what he actually did in All Stars.
#2 Ciera Eastin (Survivor: Blood vs Water, Survivor: Cambodia, Survivor: Game Changers) -- This may be my most controversial placement of anyone on this list but I'm ready to defend it all day long. I actually plan to write a full article at some point on why Ciera is the second best player to never win, but a brief summary for now: she plays the game hard. So many people on this list (Amanda is a wonderful example) don't always capitalize on their opportunities to, in Ciera's words, Play To Win. Ciera does. In either BvW or Cambodia I struggle to see her losing FTC, regardless of who she sits next to (yes, even Tyson). She made it very close to the FTC in BvW (without RI in play she was in the F4), and I truly believe she would have made it very deep, quite possibly FTC, in Cambodia, had she not been idoled out. And what about Game Changers, you ask? I really believe that it was her past reputation more than her GC game that got her voted out, so I don't hold that against her. It's actually a compliment. I'm essentially giving Cesternino, Ciera, and Cirie all one "free pass" for their early exits, since their other game(s) outshine the early exits.
#1 Cirie Fields (Survivor: Panama, Survivor: Micronesia, Survivor: Heroes vs Villains, Survivor: Game Changers) -- There is no doubt in my mind that Cirie is the best to never win. She's one notch above everyone else on this list. Like Cesternino and Ciera, Cirie had one early exit but her other three games are all works of art. She was the best player of both Panama and Micronesia, being the last boot both times. I ultimately believe her Game Changers performance may have been her best as she was on track to win it all until that notorious F6 tribal. I'll be the first to say that it was "fair" what happened there as Cirie couldn't win an immunity challenge or get an advantage/idol, yet to a large extent, what happened was totally out of her control. And she was playing so well. Another reason I love her GC game is that she made it so deep despite being such a target. She should have been out at her first tribal, but the other players let her go deep, and that's because of her phenomenal social/strategic games. I'm not sure if it'll happen or not, but I would absolutely love to see Cirie back for a fifth time. I wouldn't be shocked to see her make it deep again, and maybe she could finally win.
Saturday, December 29, 2018
Top 15 Underrated Single Games
Having aired 37 seasons, Survivor has had hundreds of players, and even more single games, so it's understandable that some are forgotten over time. However, there are a handful that I believe do not deserve to be forgotten. These 15 single games are drastically underrated in my opinion. Read on to find out why. Ranked from 15th to most underrated:
#15 Tijuana Bradley (Survivor: Pearl Islands) -- Tijuana who, you say? Tijuana -- queen of the PI pre-merge, I say! She was an underdog throughout the game going to the first three tribal councils, and luck is not the reason she stayed in the game. She was a challenge beast and had an impeccable social game. She was ultimately screwed by the outcasts twist. People say that Savage could have won the Pearls if the outcast twist hadn't happened, which is true, but Tijuana could have as well.
#14 Libby Vineck (Survivor: Ghost Island) -- Most fans remember Libby as yet another "blonde girl that was cast for her looks" but Libby had a lot more game than most people in her archetype. She was a key element of the famous Morgan vote and subtly led the strategy for much of the pre-merge.
#13 Heidi Strobel (Survivor: The Amazon) -- I struggled as to where to place Heidi on this list. The argument could be made that Heidi played one of the best games of anyone on this list, and although her game is underrated, I feel it does get at least some credit, so it's not so drastically underrated. The next time you re-watch The Amazon, please watch Heidi. People talk about Cesternino as "the" mastermind of that season, but Heidi made so many big strategic moves too, and paved the way for Jenna to eventually win.
#12 Chelsea Meissner (Survivor: One World) -- Yes, Kim played super well, and I'm not saying that Chelsea should have won One World, but it bugs me when Sabrina gets the credit as Kim's righthand woman. Chelsea was literally right there alongside Kim for the whole damn game and helped her make the moves that she did. She was also a force in challenges, and if you ignore her admittedly bad FTC performance, she could have easily won the game if next to anyone other than Kim.
#11 Michelle Schubert (Survivor: Milennials vs Gen X) -- Take everything I said about Tijuana and Libby and knock it up a few notches. Michelle was a lead contender to win based not only on her edit but her gameplay during the pre-merge of MvGX. She spearheaded the Mari vote and then helped orchestrate the CeCe vote. We also can't forget that she was excellent in challenges and had a stellar social game going on. She was dealt bad luck at the merge and was voted out because she didn't have an idol; not because she was a big threat or did something silly to get herself on people's radar. Michelle would be a very worthy returnee on a second chance-type season.
#10 Brandon Hantz (Survivor: South Pacific) -- Just a reminder that this a ranking of single games so Brandon's Caramoan game is a complete non-factor with this ranking. People remember Brandon for his train wreck Caramoan game, his struggles with Mikayla in the pre-merge of South Pacific, and giving away immunity. What they forget is that in his first season, once Mikayla was voted out, he actually played quite a decent game, helping Coach and Sophie with their moves, and yes, believe it or not, playing a very good social game. Several cast members said that had he not given up immunity, he actually stood a decent chance of winning South Pacific!
#9 Helen Glover (Survivor: Thailand) -- Helen made it to Day 37 and was the one person that could have possibly beaten Mr. Heidik in Thailand. Yet she never gets the credit she deserves. It was ultimately a misheard conversation, yes, you read that correctly, that got her voted out two days shy of FTC. She was good in challenges so if that misheard conversation never happened, she could have possibly won the FIC, voted out Heidik, and won the whole game. Why she's never talked about in the same light as Kathy/Lex/Darrah as another "fell short at the last minute but almost won" player is beyond me, but she deserves that same legacy.
#8 Laurel Johnson (Survivor: Ghost Island) -- Say what you will about Laurel's missed opportunity to take out Wendell/Domenick, that was one. mistake. Yes, one that quite possibly tossed her a million dollars, but it was one mistake nonetheless. Except for that miscalculation, she played a wonderful game, and it's fair to say that her loyalty and strategic brain was a key reason that WenDom did make it to the Final 2. She led the strategy for several votes, especially right around the merge, and never gets the credit for it. She's remembered as the person that broke the first ever final vote tie, but she deserves to be remembered for so much more as well.
#7 Ashley Underwood (Survivor: Redemption Island) -- Boston Rob is remembered as the only person that played in Red. Island, and when you say the name "Ashley Underwood" people usually think of her as one of his goats (alongside the likes of NatTen, Philip, and to an extent, Andrea). Ashley really wasn't his goat at all. Yes, she followed him strategically, but she also made her own moves, and was ready to blindside Rob but then he went on a winning streak. She was awful close in some of those immunity challenges though, and had she won one, she likely would have won the game.
#6 Ashley Nolan (Survivor: Heroes v Healers v Hustlers) -- Like Underwood, Ashley Nolan played a UTR but very strong game, making subtle strategic moves, holding her own in challenges, and playing a standup social game. The edit made sure to highlight this and she was actually my winner pick in the episodes leading up to her elimination at the F6. It was a disagreement with Ben that eventually led to her elimination, but it's beyond me why people don't think of her as someone that could have possibly won HHH. She was a lot closer than people ever give her credit for.
#5 Baylor Wilson (Survivor: San Juan del Sur) -- Like the two Ashleys, Baylor was an end-gamer that could have won if things had gone just a little differently, but people think of her only as a bratty girl and not the real player that she was. Sure she made some mistakes but it was ultimately an idol that took her out of the game, and had Jaclyn gone home that night instead, Baylor had a shot to win Final Immunity, take out Natalie, and win the game. I'm not saying she played a flawless game or would have won if it wasn't for the idol, but she should get the credit for keeping Missy in the game and playing hard all the way through. She deserves another shot in a returnee season.
#4 Cao Boi Bui (Survivor: Cook Islands) -- Cao Boi is, deservedly, remembered for his kooky personality and forehead red dots, but people forget that he was actually playing the game too, and he deserves to be this high on the list for one simple move: inventing the split vote strategy. It seems so basic, and it wasn't even executed the night he came up with it, but Plan Voodoo truly changed the way Survivor is played. Yul himself referred to the plan as "genius" and who knows how differently so many other seasons would have gone down if it wasn't for Cao Boi's crazy dream.
#3 John Hennigan (Survivor: David vs Goliath) -- I can hear "recency bias" screams already but I truly believe that the Mayor of Slamtown deserves this ranking. Why? Mainly because he was hardly ever referred to as a strategic player, but I believe he played one of the best games in the DvG pre-merge. While Angelina was overplaying and taking the bullets for all the big moves, John was right there alongside her subtly steering the direction of the game, similarly to how Mike did later in the game. It was him that "suggested" Jeremy go before Natalie. He accomplished what he wanted to without being a big target, and like Baylor, it was eventually an idol that took him out. If it wasn't for Nick's brilliant minority split vote plan, who knows how long John would have lasted.
#2 Parvati Shallow (Survivor: Cook Islands) -- It was my recent re-watch of Cook Islands that actually inspired this Top 15 when I saw how underrated Parvati's CI game was. Heck, I'd even been underrating it. She's always remembered for her Micronesia and HvV games, but when it comes to the Cooks people think of her as a flirt and nothing more. Yes, she flirted a lot, but it was legit strategy that worked. If it wasn't for Yul's super idol and Ozzy's winning streak, Parvati could be our winner of Cook Islands. Let that sink in, let it sink in how underrated her Cooks game is.
#1 Trish Hegarty (Survivor: Cagayan) -- And ladies and gentlemen, it comes down to this. Trish Hegarty of Cagayan, the most underrated single game in the history of Survivor. Like others on this list, Trish was a "backseat" player behind a bold player, in this case, Tony. But she was with him for the entire game and helped him make the moves he did. Specifically, the ultra-crucial Kass flip at the merge. Trish was the one that went out and convinced Kass to flip. If she hadn't done that, the Solanas were going to get totally Pagonged. Like Yul in the Cooks, Tony was protected by idols including a super idol, but had he not been, Trish would have been a, or the, lead contender to win Cagayan.
#15 Tijuana Bradley (Survivor: Pearl Islands) -- Tijuana who, you say? Tijuana -- queen of the PI pre-merge, I say! She was an underdog throughout the game going to the first three tribal councils, and luck is not the reason she stayed in the game. She was a challenge beast and had an impeccable social game. She was ultimately screwed by the outcasts twist. People say that Savage could have won the Pearls if the outcast twist hadn't happened, which is true, but Tijuana could have as well.
#14 Libby Vineck (Survivor: Ghost Island) -- Most fans remember Libby as yet another "blonde girl that was cast for her looks" but Libby had a lot more game than most people in her archetype. She was a key element of the famous Morgan vote and subtly led the strategy for much of the pre-merge.
#13 Heidi Strobel (Survivor: The Amazon) -- I struggled as to where to place Heidi on this list. The argument could be made that Heidi played one of the best games of anyone on this list, and although her game is underrated, I feel it does get at least some credit, so it's not so drastically underrated. The next time you re-watch The Amazon, please watch Heidi. People talk about Cesternino as "the" mastermind of that season, but Heidi made so many big strategic moves too, and paved the way for Jenna to eventually win.
#12 Chelsea Meissner (Survivor: One World) -- Yes, Kim played super well, and I'm not saying that Chelsea should have won One World, but it bugs me when Sabrina gets the credit as Kim's righthand woman. Chelsea was literally right there alongside Kim for the whole damn game and helped her make the moves that she did. She was also a force in challenges, and if you ignore her admittedly bad FTC performance, she could have easily won the game if next to anyone other than Kim.
#11 Michelle Schubert (Survivor: Milennials vs Gen X) -- Take everything I said about Tijuana and Libby and knock it up a few notches. Michelle was a lead contender to win based not only on her edit but her gameplay during the pre-merge of MvGX. She spearheaded the Mari vote and then helped orchestrate the CeCe vote. We also can't forget that she was excellent in challenges and had a stellar social game going on. She was dealt bad luck at the merge and was voted out because she didn't have an idol; not because she was a big threat or did something silly to get herself on people's radar. Michelle would be a very worthy returnee on a second chance-type season.
#10 Brandon Hantz (Survivor: South Pacific) -- Just a reminder that this a ranking of single games so Brandon's Caramoan game is a complete non-factor with this ranking. People remember Brandon for his train wreck Caramoan game, his struggles with Mikayla in the pre-merge of South Pacific, and giving away immunity. What they forget is that in his first season, once Mikayla was voted out, he actually played quite a decent game, helping Coach and Sophie with their moves, and yes, believe it or not, playing a very good social game. Several cast members said that had he not given up immunity, he actually stood a decent chance of winning South Pacific!
#9 Helen Glover (Survivor: Thailand) -- Helen made it to Day 37 and was the one person that could have possibly beaten Mr. Heidik in Thailand. Yet she never gets the credit she deserves. It was ultimately a misheard conversation, yes, you read that correctly, that got her voted out two days shy of FTC. She was good in challenges so if that misheard conversation never happened, she could have possibly won the FIC, voted out Heidik, and won the whole game. Why she's never talked about in the same light as Kathy/Lex/Darrah as another "fell short at the last minute but almost won" player is beyond me, but she deserves that same legacy.
#8 Laurel Johnson (Survivor: Ghost Island) -- Say what you will about Laurel's missed opportunity to take out Wendell/Domenick, that was one. mistake. Yes, one that quite possibly tossed her a million dollars, but it was one mistake nonetheless. Except for that miscalculation, she played a wonderful game, and it's fair to say that her loyalty and strategic brain was a key reason that WenDom did make it to the Final 2. She led the strategy for several votes, especially right around the merge, and never gets the credit for it. She's remembered as the person that broke the first ever final vote tie, but she deserves to be remembered for so much more as well.
#7 Ashley Underwood (Survivor: Redemption Island) -- Boston Rob is remembered as the only person that played in Red. Island, and when you say the name "Ashley Underwood" people usually think of her as one of his goats (alongside the likes of NatTen, Philip, and to an extent, Andrea). Ashley really wasn't his goat at all. Yes, she followed him strategically, but she also made her own moves, and was ready to blindside Rob but then he went on a winning streak. She was awful close in some of those immunity challenges though, and had she won one, she likely would have won the game.
#6 Ashley Nolan (Survivor: Heroes v Healers v Hustlers) -- Like Underwood, Ashley Nolan played a UTR but very strong game, making subtle strategic moves, holding her own in challenges, and playing a standup social game. The edit made sure to highlight this and she was actually my winner pick in the episodes leading up to her elimination at the F6. It was a disagreement with Ben that eventually led to her elimination, but it's beyond me why people don't think of her as someone that could have possibly won HHH. She was a lot closer than people ever give her credit for.
#5 Baylor Wilson (Survivor: San Juan del Sur) -- Like the two Ashleys, Baylor was an end-gamer that could have won if things had gone just a little differently, but people think of her only as a bratty girl and not the real player that she was. Sure she made some mistakes but it was ultimately an idol that took her out of the game, and had Jaclyn gone home that night instead, Baylor had a shot to win Final Immunity, take out Natalie, and win the game. I'm not saying she played a flawless game or would have won if it wasn't for the idol, but she should get the credit for keeping Missy in the game and playing hard all the way through. She deserves another shot in a returnee season.
#4 Cao Boi Bui (Survivor: Cook Islands) -- Cao Boi is, deservedly, remembered for his kooky personality and forehead red dots, but people forget that he was actually playing the game too, and he deserves to be this high on the list for one simple move: inventing the split vote strategy. It seems so basic, and it wasn't even executed the night he came up with it, but Plan Voodoo truly changed the way Survivor is played. Yul himself referred to the plan as "genius" and who knows how differently so many other seasons would have gone down if it wasn't for Cao Boi's crazy dream.
#3 John Hennigan (Survivor: David vs Goliath) -- I can hear "recency bias" screams already but I truly believe that the Mayor of Slamtown deserves this ranking. Why? Mainly because he was hardly ever referred to as a strategic player, but I believe he played one of the best games in the DvG pre-merge. While Angelina was overplaying and taking the bullets for all the big moves, John was right there alongside her subtly steering the direction of the game, similarly to how Mike did later in the game. It was him that "suggested" Jeremy go before Natalie. He accomplished what he wanted to without being a big target, and like Baylor, it was eventually an idol that took him out. If it wasn't for Nick's brilliant minority split vote plan, who knows how long John would have lasted.
#2 Parvati Shallow (Survivor: Cook Islands) -- It was my recent re-watch of Cook Islands that actually inspired this Top 15 when I saw how underrated Parvati's CI game was. Heck, I'd even been underrating it. She's always remembered for her Micronesia and HvV games, but when it comes to the Cooks people think of her as a flirt and nothing more. Yes, she flirted a lot, but it was legit strategy that worked. If it wasn't for Yul's super idol and Ozzy's winning streak, Parvati could be our winner of Cook Islands. Let that sink in, let it sink in how underrated her Cooks game is.
#1 Trish Hegarty (Survivor: Cagayan) -- And ladies and gentlemen, it comes down to this. Trish Hegarty of Cagayan, the most underrated single game in the history of Survivor. Like others on this list, Trish was a "backseat" player behind a bold player, in this case, Tony. But she was with him for the entire game and helped him make the moves he did. Specifically, the ultra-crucial Kass flip at the merge. Trish was the one that went out and convinced Kass to flip. If she hadn't done that, the Solanas were going to get totally Pagonged. Like Yul in the Cooks, Tony was protected by idols including a super idol, but had he not been, Trish would have been a, or the, lead contender to win Cagayan.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)