Survivor: Edge of Extinction kicked off this week with a short but exciting premiere and although I am still a bit skeptical of the EoE twist, I am hopeful for a great season. Find here my predicted boot order. Remember, this is primarily based on edit.
2nd person voted out: Aubry -- Oh how so much can change from the pre-season to the premiere. Going in, I thought Aubry had great odds of of making it deep yet again but she had by far the weakest premiere of all the returnees. I do believe that one returnee will be voted out pre-merge, and it seems destined to be Aubry. While she could last a bit longer than next episode, I believe she will go sooner rather than later, especially since Eric and Gavin, two players that the edit wants us to remember in positive light, want her gone soon.
3rd person voted out: Wendy -- I actually really like Wendy and think she represents a really awesome, unique archetype that we should see more of on Survivor. That said, she doesn't seem destined for a deep run in this game. Her edit had no longevity, and it's almost as if her story has already run its course -- she told us about her disability, her closest ally was Reem who is already gone, and she's on the outs of Manu (and I guarantee you Wentworth and Lauren will be working to keep the majority together).
4th person voted out: Julie -- Julie is a very interesting one in that she got a surprising amount of airtime for someone relatively irrelevant to the current game narrative. She had a bit of a "dodo edit" and the edit made sure to tell us that she's not at all outdoorsy. Her edit is two-sided: in terms of content, I can't see how she makes the merge. In terms of visibility: I'd be a bit surprised if she didn't. This is why I think she is our first of two EoE returners. She's set up for a journey arc: the city woman that has never gone camping finds it in herself to survive the Edge of Extinction and re-enter the game.
5th person voted out: Victoria -- One of the young, strategic females that received a decent premiere edit is the "Anna Khait" of this season -- the player that plays well and a lot of fans love, but that gets booted before the merge, sometimes due to being a swap victim. The candidates for the "Anna Khait" this season are Victoria, Aurora, Lauren, and Wentworth. I believe that Lauren and Wentworth both have a ton of longevity in their edit, so that really narrows it down to likely Victoria or Aurora. I'd lean towards it being Victoria as she had less personal content than Aurora, and the Anna Khait edit usually lacks personal content.
6th person voted out: Chris -- Chris was one of only two players to not receive a single premiere confessional. Not only is that a death nail to winner chances, but it likely means they will not play a major role in the season. I believe that Julia, the other confessional-less player, has a better chance of making it deep for two reasons: she seems to have a lot more potential than Chris based on pre-game interviews, and it's less unusual for her archetype to receive no air time. Chris is an alpha male type and was a star in the challenge, so it's very surprising how weak his edit was. I'm calling it now: he'll be the James Lim-type shock right-before-the-merge strong guy boot.
7th person voted out: Gavin -- The very last boot before the merge is often either a polarizing villain (Peter in Kaoh Rong, Bradley in Ghost Island) or a lovable hero (Sandra in Game Changers, Lyrsa in David vs Goliath). I am predicting that this season it will be the latter, and Gavin pretty much fits the bill. He's had a lot of good content, but some of it seems a little 'off'. The biggest red flag was when he talked about buying a fourth traffic light for his town if he was to win the game. Winners are usually shown either not talking about what they'd do with the money, or they talk about supporting their family with it, or putting it to a good cause (like Nick in DvG). A traffic light isn't exactly a "good cause" (unless it would be at a dangerous intersection and could save lives, and if that was the case, and Gavin was the winner, I think there would have been that explanation to go along with it). I'm having a bit of trouble pinpoiniting more reasons, but overall Gavin's edit feels just a bit "off" to me, and not unlike Lyrsa's edit in DvG, so I'm afraid to say it, but I'm not convinced he'll be there at the merge.
MERGE where Julie re-enters the game from Edge of Extinction -- See description above for why I think it'll be Julie.
8th person voted out: Aurora -- The merge boot often has the most winner-like edit of the season, outside of people in the Final 7. I really liked Aurora's premiere: airtime despite not being a major player in the overall narrative, and a key personal content soundbite telling us she is gay. Could she win? Absolutely, but someone that could win will be the merge boot, and her pre-season interviews telling us how confrontational she can be, plus the fact that most recent merge boots (Michelle in MvGX, Hali in Game Changers, Jessica in HHH, Elizabeth in DvG) have been youngish females, Aurora seems like the most likely candidate for merge boot.
9th person voted out: Julie -- As I described above, Julie pretty much has a pre-merge edit, just way too large of one. Visibility could be simply because she is the first EoE returner, and lack of complexity is probably because she gets voted out not long after re-entering the game.
10th person voted out: Eric -- Eric's edit was a bit of a hard one to read. It was certainly a "hero edit", and while that could correlate to a win, I am thinking it might not. I think Eric is one of those guys whose threat level is so large that they will be voted out not too long after the merge. Eric's edit doesn't necessarily seem like a boring early-post-merge boot though, so I am guessing that he will be the second EoE returner.
11th person voted out: Joe -- Joe is being edited just like he was in both Worlds Apart and Second Chance -- the golden boy. It wasn't a great edit sign when he said "I don't want to be too big of a threat" in a confessional, and the next scene was him starting fire. Joe is just not destined to reach the end game, and I see him falling in a similar position as his last two games.
12th person voted out: Julia -- It pains me to say this since she was my pre-season winner pick, but Julia is looking like that ultra-forgettable mid-post-merge boot (JP in HHH, Chelsea in Ghost Island). She had by far the weakest edit of the premiere, and simply put, cannot win the game. I am hopeful that her edit will spike at some point, and that we'll at least get some good content from her as she seems like a great person with gameplay potential, but she's not going to be the major character I was hoping, and thought she would be.
13th person voted out: WarDog -- WarDog was a tough one to rank. He had a pretty good edit, with a couple clear flaws. He got the first confessional of the season which in itself is a sign the editors want us to pay attention to him. Can he win? Yes, but he's not a top contender. The last thing we heard from him pre-tribal was that he'd like to flip the vote from Reem to Wendy, but obviously that didn't happen, so that wasn't the best look in terms of the edit. Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked to see him end up as the runner up. His edit already has some similarities to two recent runners up: Domenick (WarDog telling Reem that she was "too much" for him at tribal reminded me of Dom's confrontation with Chris during the Ghost Island premiere), and Angelina (who had the first confessional of DvG). I think Wentworth has a more classic runner up edit at this point though, so I think that WarDog may instead be the Joe Mena/Nick Iadanza extreme strategist mid-post-merge player.
14th person voted out: David -- I think that David has the most winner-like edit of the four returnees but Gavin's quote of "a new player needs to win this season" which was so heavily shown, will fulfill itself, which means that David won't win. His premiere edit reminded me of Christian's premiere edit in David vs Goliath, or even Kellyn's in Ghost Island. Both those players ended up in seventh position, so this seems like a good spot for David -- the fan favorite who could easily win that goes out right before the finale.
15th person voted out: Keith -- Keith had the most confessionals (five) by a long shot in the premiere, and it's clear that he's going to be a big character this season. Can he win? Yes, but he's not a topmost contender. First of all, the fact that he had the most confessionals is not great. Only two winners (Richard Hatch and Nick Wilson) have had the most confessionals in the premiere. The fact that Nick is one of them could be a saving grace since he was the most recent winner, and maybe the editors are changing things up, but I still think it's more likely to be a negative. Keith is already giving me huge Davie vibes, and his edit is shaping up to be a big journey, so sixth place is the most likely finish for Keith at this point.
---Second Edge of Extinction returner---: Eric -- See above for why I think the second returner will be Eric.
16th person voted out, ninth jury member: Eric -- Unfortunately for him, I think Eric will leave as soon as he gets back in the game. It makes sense, he'll be a huge jury threat so if he doesn't win immunity it'll make sense to take him out. His edit would support this, as unless he wins (which he could, but I think there are stronger winner contenders) he doesn't have a Final 4 edit as of now.
17th person voted out, tenth and final jury member: Rick Devens -- Devens is certainly a character and someone I expect to have a huge impact on the season. His edit is large so far, but he was in the promo (with Aubry, Wendy, and Joe) so that makes him very unlikely to win in my opinion. Not only that, but his premiere edit was not necessarily that of a winner. It's too goofy for a winner. The "OH YEAH!!!" stuff almost reminds me of some of Christian's content from DvG. They're setting Rick up as an underdog, and the final boot often gets an underdog edit. Also, he seems like a jury threat that isn't necessarily good at fire making, so it makes sense he'd go out here.
Final Three: Lauren O'Connell (winner, 5 jury votes), Kelley Wentworth (runner up, 3 jury votes), Ron Clark (second runner up, 2 jury votes)
The premiere was jam packed as it was the shortest premiere we've had in a while, and they only showed essential content for the most part. Lauren and Wentworth's relationship was given a big focus, and both individuals got great edits. I am officially predicting that they'll make FTC together and that Lauren will beat Wentworth as Lauren's edit was a more classic winner edit (better personal content) and Wentworth's edit of needing to make real emotional relationships was a flashback to Spencer's Second Chance runner up edit. All this, plus Gavin's newbie winner quote give Lauren the upper hand. As for Ron, his edit was larger than it needed to be, but a bit erratic, all great signs of a second runner up edit. Also, his quote about winning could be perceived as a winner quote, but it really reminded me of Mike White's quote from DvG. Call it a "decoy winner quote", something to give super fans the idea that they might win.
Last but not least, everyone ranked from most to least likely to win (no explanations):
Lauren
Aurora
Wentworth
Eric
Ron
WarDog
Keith
David
Victoria
Gavin
Rick
Joe
Wendy
Aubry
Julie
Chris
Julia
Reem
Saturday, February 23, 2019
Wednesday, February 20, 2019
Assessing the post-merge castaways of Australian Survivor 2017
After the epic 2016 season of Australian Survivor, I am now on my first watch of Australian Survivor 2017. We are entering the merge phase and I am completely unspoiled which is fantastic.
Of course, being as into Edgic as I am, I am going to assess the castaways in terms of winner chances. Below you'll find a castaway-by-castaway assessment dissecting who can win this game. First, a couple of notes: I'm basing almost all my assessments on the edit. I found Australian Survivor 2016 to be edited very, very similarly to American Survivor so assuming 2017 is being edited the same way (so far, it seems to be), I think I have a good handle on the edit.
Top Contenders
Sarah: I've seen Sarah as a winner contender from Episode 1. She gets a ton of airtime, but it includes a lot of what you'd look for in a winner: personal content, confessionals at important moments in the episodes, editorial protection, and correct foreshadowing. The last couple of pre-merge episodes are often crucial in terms of how players, or more importantly, storylines, are portrayed. It's been clear that the underdog Asaga tribe is the main storyline heading into the merge, complete with two different players with quotes along the lines of "an Asaga is going to win this thing". This is very similar to the underdog new Vavau storyline from Aus2016 which proved to indeed include the winner. I am pretty darn confident that an Asaga will indeed win. While I think it's probably one of the four entering the merge on Asaga, it could theoretically be someone like Henry or Michelle who is now on Samatau, but was on Asaga for much of the season. Sarah has been on Asaga the entire game and has been seen as the strategic leader of that tribe at times. Unless she's the shock merge boot, which I really don't see at this point, she's poised for a very deep run, and is the lead contender for the win.
Tara: Tara is the clear #2 candidate for the win right now. She fits many of the same criteria as Sarah: new Asaga, has personal content, is seen as a very good strategic player, etc. She has had considerably less airtime than Sarah which is a tad concerning, especially since the last pre-merge episode was not her strongest episode. All that said, I'm not too worried as she did get good content at important points in the episode and the entire Asaga tribe, which she is part of, was the clear focus of that episode. Her edit feels a bit "light" and somewhat lacking in depth compared to Sarah's, but there's an incredible foundation laid for her to build on. While I believe that Tara is indeed poised for a long run, her edit has been concerningly similar to Conner's edit in Aus2016, so I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility of Tara being the merge boot.
Henry: Henry is a very interesting one. On paper, he's had one of the strongest edits of the season. He's been seen as able to adapt to any situation that gets thrown his way, he gets lots of airtime including personal content, he has strong relationships on both tribes, a Final 3 deal with Locky and Annelise, and a hidden immunity idol still in his pocket. He's had a totally classic winner edit so far, but he is not new Asaga which is the prevailing storyline right now. That said, I did notice that the quotes were "an Asaga will win" not a "new Asaga will win", so the saving grace for Henry could be that he started the game on Asaga, and if he works with the New Asaga 4 in a merge situation, he could very easily be seen as "an Asaga". If I'm overestimating Sarah or the new Asaga storyline, Henry's probably the winner.
Contenders
Jericho: There are a few players (Jericho, Annalise, and Locky) who have all received winner-esque edits that don't feel quite right. Jericho is catapulted to the top of this group for the simple fact that he is a New Asaga, as well as the fact that his edit has consistently grown in visibility throughout the pre-merge, a good trait of a winner edit. He's had some excellent scenes (weirdly enough, I feel the cookie incident was edited in favor of Jericho), but he's also been seen as a devilish, impulsive sidekick to Luke at times. I see Jericho making it deep, and the next few episodes will be key in seeing where Jericho's story is going. At this point I predict the New Asaga 4 staying together for a while, and the Final 2 could easily be two of the New Asaga 4. At this point I see Jericho as a runner up more than anything else, but if his edit gets more positive tones, and if a lead contender like Sarah's edit slows down, Jericho's winner chances could rise.
Annalise: If I am completely overestimating the edit of New Asaga and a Saamatau pulls this off, Annalise is poised to take control. She's made some very questionable moves but most of them have been protected, at least to an extent, by the edit. In addition to being a Saamatu, my biggest concern for Annalise is that she had very little airtime in the first five episodes. Normally, that would be a death nail for winner chances, but in a 26 episode season, maybe it's not. I do believe that Annalise has strong alliances and a number of options moving forward, not to mention a hidden immunity idol, so winner or not, I predict a deep run for Annalise.
Locky: Locky has had a large edit, but it is severely lacking in depth. Very little personal content and oddly placed confessionals top my list of concerns about his edit, not to mention the fact that he is another Saamatau. The one thing that Locky really has going for him is that he's had tons of positive second person visibility and he's had perhaps the most consistent edit in terms of confessional counts, of anyone left in the game. Can he win? Yes, but only if the New Asaga story is completely irrelevant in the end game as Locky has been painted as the leader of Saamatu, Asaga's enemy tribe.
Michelle: Michelle has had a consistent edit, but it has been nearly strictly strategical, and certainly lacking in personal content. She strikes me as the Kellyn Bechtold or Brooke Jowett of this season -- the female strategic powerhouse that is eventually determined to be too big of a threat and voted out mid-post-merge. Although she's New Saamatau, she was Original Asaga, and like Henry, I could see her working with the New Asaga 4 post-merge. So, if the Asaga storyline will be the prevailing one, as I predict it will be, Michelle could be a big part of that, and that's what keeps her hanging on as a contender for the win.
Long Shots
Luke: Luke would have one of the oddest winner edits in history if he pulls this thing off. He's been shown is erratic, goofy, and flat-out stupid at times. But what have we did we say about Tony Vlahos at the Cagayan merge? That he'd have one of the oddest winner edits in history. When a winner is such an eccentric character, producers are not going to hide all of the crazy content in favor of a classic winner edit. That said, I do believe they would have at least toned down some of Luke's craziness, especially in the easily forgettable but all important premiere, where he was painted to be a total lunatic. He's at the top of the long shots group only because, for better or worse, he is playing hard, and he is New Asaga.
Ziggy: Ziggy has played a pretty solid pre-merge games (with some serious flaws). Oddly enough, the edit has seemed to focus on her flaws more than her successes. In the last immunity challenge, Jericho was painted as the hero, even though Ziggy outlasted him. It's like her good moments are under edited and her bad moments are over edited. She is holding the most powerful idol in Survivor history and I believe that she has gotten the Carl Boudreaux edit -- lots of airtime, but only because she holds a critical advantage. I suspect Ziggy will play her super idol, and then be promptly voted out. When will this happen? Who knows, but if I had to guess, I'd say mid-post-merge, just like Carl. All her personal content keeps her off the bottom in terms of winner chances.
Nearly Out of Contention:
Tessa: Oh Tessa, oh Tessa. I had such high hopes for her until around Episode 10. She played so well out of the gate, got so much personal content, many confessionals, you name it. But she has been I-N-V-I-S-I-B-L-E for the past five episodes. That pretty much is a death nail during one of the most important stretches of the game, edit wise. I considered labeling her Out of Contention, but I still have this far out belief (maybe it's more of a hope) that if her edit spikes again at the merge that she could maybe, just maybe pull it off. If her edit stays weak she will firmly drop out of contention though.
Out of Contention
Peter: Peter has had a fair amount of airtime, but he's been perceived as weak and irrelevant to the overall storyline of the season. He's had no personal content, no properly timed confessionals, and no solid relationships with anyone (other than Tessa, who is also going nowhere edit wise). Peter can't win this game.
Jerrad: And that brings us to the least likely person to win the game. Jerrad has had multiple episodes with no confessionals, and his only working relationship was with AJ who is long gone. Jerrad is destined to be that early-pre-merge ultra forgettable boot. Sorry Jerrad, but you're the most forgettable character of the season.
Well, there we have it! I can't wait to see how accurate my predictions are and how the rest of this season plays out. I'm hoping for an epic post-merge!
Of course, being as into Edgic as I am, I am going to assess the castaways in terms of winner chances. Below you'll find a castaway-by-castaway assessment dissecting who can win this game. First, a couple of notes: I'm basing almost all my assessments on the edit. I found Australian Survivor 2016 to be edited very, very similarly to American Survivor so assuming 2017 is being edited the same way (so far, it seems to be), I think I have a good handle on the edit.
Top Contenders
Sarah: I've seen Sarah as a winner contender from Episode 1. She gets a ton of airtime, but it includes a lot of what you'd look for in a winner: personal content, confessionals at important moments in the episodes, editorial protection, and correct foreshadowing. The last couple of pre-merge episodes are often crucial in terms of how players, or more importantly, storylines, are portrayed. It's been clear that the underdog Asaga tribe is the main storyline heading into the merge, complete with two different players with quotes along the lines of "an Asaga is going to win this thing". This is very similar to the underdog new Vavau storyline from Aus2016 which proved to indeed include the winner. I am pretty darn confident that an Asaga will indeed win. While I think it's probably one of the four entering the merge on Asaga, it could theoretically be someone like Henry or Michelle who is now on Samatau, but was on Asaga for much of the season. Sarah has been on Asaga the entire game and has been seen as the strategic leader of that tribe at times. Unless she's the shock merge boot, which I really don't see at this point, she's poised for a very deep run, and is the lead contender for the win.
Tara: Tara is the clear #2 candidate for the win right now. She fits many of the same criteria as Sarah: new Asaga, has personal content, is seen as a very good strategic player, etc. She has had considerably less airtime than Sarah which is a tad concerning, especially since the last pre-merge episode was not her strongest episode. All that said, I'm not too worried as she did get good content at important points in the episode and the entire Asaga tribe, which she is part of, was the clear focus of that episode. Her edit feels a bit "light" and somewhat lacking in depth compared to Sarah's, but there's an incredible foundation laid for her to build on. While I believe that Tara is indeed poised for a long run, her edit has been concerningly similar to Conner's edit in Aus2016, so I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility of Tara being the merge boot.
Henry: Henry is a very interesting one. On paper, he's had one of the strongest edits of the season. He's been seen as able to adapt to any situation that gets thrown his way, he gets lots of airtime including personal content, he has strong relationships on both tribes, a Final 3 deal with Locky and Annelise, and a hidden immunity idol still in his pocket. He's had a totally classic winner edit so far, but he is not new Asaga which is the prevailing storyline right now. That said, I did notice that the quotes were "an Asaga will win" not a "new Asaga will win", so the saving grace for Henry could be that he started the game on Asaga, and if he works with the New Asaga 4 in a merge situation, he could very easily be seen as "an Asaga". If I'm overestimating Sarah or the new Asaga storyline, Henry's probably the winner.
Contenders
Jericho: There are a few players (Jericho, Annalise, and Locky) who have all received winner-esque edits that don't feel quite right. Jericho is catapulted to the top of this group for the simple fact that he is a New Asaga, as well as the fact that his edit has consistently grown in visibility throughout the pre-merge, a good trait of a winner edit. He's had some excellent scenes (weirdly enough, I feel the cookie incident was edited in favor of Jericho), but he's also been seen as a devilish, impulsive sidekick to Luke at times. I see Jericho making it deep, and the next few episodes will be key in seeing where Jericho's story is going. At this point I predict the New Asaga 4 staying together for a while, and the Final 2 could easily be two of the New Asaga 4. At this point I see Jericho as a runner up more than anything else, but if his edit gets more positive tones, and if a lead contender like Sarah's edit slows down, Jericho's winner chances could rise.
Annalise: If I am completely overestimating the edit of New Asaga and a Saamatau pulls this off, Annalise is poised to take control. She's made some very questionable moves but most of them have been protected, at least to an extent, by the edit. In addition to being a Saamatu, my biggest concern for Annalise is that she had very little airtime in the first five episodes. Normally, that would be a death nail for winner chances, but in a 26 episode season, maybe it's not. I do believe that Annalise has strong alliances and a number of options moving forward, not to mention a hidden immunity idol, so winner or not, I predict a deep run for Annalise.
Locky: Locky has had a large edit, but it is severely lacking in depth. Very little personal content and oddly placed confessionals top my list of concerns about his edit, not to mention the fact that he is another Saamatau. The one thing that Locky really has going for him is that he's had tons of positive second person visibility and he's had perhaps the most consistent edit in terms of confessional counts, of anyone left in the game. Can he win? Yes, but only if the New Asaga story is completely irrelevant in the end game as Locky has been painted as the leader of Saamatu, Asaga's enemy tribe.
Michelle: Michelle has had a consistent edit, but it has been nearly strictly strategical, and certainly lacking in personal content. She strikes me as the Kellyn Bechtold or Brooke Jowett of this season -- the female strategic powerhouse that is eventually determined to be too big of a threat and voted out mid-post-merge. Although she's New Saamatau, she was Original Asaga, and like Henry, I could see her working with the New Asaga 4 post-merge. So, if the Asaga storyline will be the prevailing one, as I predict it will be, Michelle could be a big part of that, and that's what keeps her hanging on as a contender for the win.
Long Shots
Luke: Luke would have one of the oddest winner edits in history if he pulls this thing off. He's been shown is erratic, goofy, and flat-out stupid at times. But what have we did we say about Tony Vlahos at the Cagayan merge? That he'd have one of the oddest winner edits in history. When a winner is such an eccentric character, producers are not going to hide all of the crazy content in favor of a classic winner edit. That said, I do believe they would have at least toned down some of Luke's craziness, especially in the easily forgettable but all important premiere, where he was painted to be a total lunatic. He's at the top of the long shots group only because, for better or worse, he is playing hard, and he is New Asaga.
Ziggy: Ziggy has played a pretty solid pre-merge games (with some serious flaws). Oddly enough, the edit has seemed to focus on her flaws more than her successes. In the last immunity challenge, Jericho was painted as the hero, even though Ziggy outlasted him. It's like her good moments are under edited and her bad moments are over edited. She is holding the most powerful idol in Survivor history and I believe that she has gotten the Carl Boudreaux edit -- lots of airtime, but only because she holds a critical advantage. I suspect Ziggy will play her super idol, and then be promptly voted out. When will this happen? Who knows, but if I had to guess, I'd say mid-post-merge, just like Carl. All her personal content keeps her off the bottom in terms of winner chances.
Nearly Out of Contention:
Tessa: Oh Tessa, oh Tessa. I had such high hopes for her until around Episode 10. She played so well out of the gate, got so much personal content, many confessionals, you name it. But she has been I-N-V-I-S-I-B-L-E for the past five episodes. That pretty much is a death nail during one of the most important stretches of the game, edit wise. I considered labeling her Out of Contention, but I still have this far out belief (maybe it's more of a hope) that if her edit spikes again at the merge that she could maybe, just maybe pull it off. If her edit stays weak she will firmly drop out of contention though.
Out of Contention
Peter: Peter has had a fair amount of airtime, but he's been perceived as weak and irrelevant to the overall storyline of the season. He's had no personal content, no properly timed confessionals, and no solid relationships with anyone (other than Tessa, who is also going nowhere edit wise). Peter can't win this game.
Jerrad: And that brings us to the least likely person to win the game. Jerrad has had multiple episodes with no confessionals, and his only working relationship was with AJ who is long gone. Jerrad is destined to be that early-pre-merge ultra forgettable boot. Sorry Jerrad, but you're the most forgettable character of the season.
Well, there we have it! I can't wait to see how accurate my predictions are and how the rest of this season plays out. I'm hoping for an epic post-merge!
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