Survivor: Ghost Island has had another two great episodes since my last update and two more original Malolo have been voted off the new Malolo tribe. We've gotten to see a bunch more character development of several different people, and it results in my new predicted boot order:
6th person voted out: Desiree -- For a while I've had Desiree going to the Final 5 but this week her edit spiked. A pre-merge strong spike after being quiet all season is never a good sign, and to me an indicator of a swap victim of the upcoming swap.
7th person voted out: Bradley -- Bradley has given very strong Peter Bagastos vibes in the last two episodes and at this point I strongly believe he'll be pre-merge. It was a bit of a tossup between him and Desiree for 6th out/7th out but I am ousting Desiree first because her edit just spiked now, where Bradley's gotten a lot of airtime all season.
MERGE
8th person voted out, first jury member: Chris -- Chris continues to give off merge boot vibes. We see him and Dominick continuing to feud next episode, but I can't see either of them going pre-merge. They probably end up on separate tribes at the swap, but as soon as they get back together, they'll be going at each other. And I see Dominick winning. The merge boot always gets a strong edit and Chris fills this archetype perfectly.
9th person voted out, second jury member: Jenna -- Jenna continues to get the flirty girl early jury edit, and if she and Sebastian start getting too close, they are going to want to break that up.
10th person voted out, third jury member: James -- We continue to not see much from James, so this seems like a reasonable spot to place him. Not going super soon but definitely not an end-gamer.
11th person voted out, fourth jury member: Angela -- See James. Invisible which is good for the short term, bad for the long term.
12th person voted out, fifth jury member: Chelsea -- Like James and Angela, in-vis-ible. That said, we've gotten to see a bit more of her these past two episodes which leads me to believe she'll be around a bit longer than the other invisible mid-jury players.
13th person voted out, sixth jury member: Sebastian -- This past episode proved what I've thought for a while which is that Sebastian is too goofy to be good at this game. He wanted to keep Jenna (which was the right decision anyway) because she braids his friggin' hair. Give me a break. You're playing a million dollar game and are going to let hair braiding influence a decision? Lame.
14th person voted out, seventh jury member: Libby -- Libby continues to give strong vibes of players that have placed around here before, and she seems safe for a while, so no reason to change her placement just yet.
15th person voted out, eigth jury member: Donathan -- Donathan is getting the "journey" edit which we have routinely seen land in sixth place (Kimmi in Second Chance, Jay in MvGX, Cirie in Game Changers). This seems like a logical spot to place him.
16th person voted out, ninth jury member: Wendell -- I haven't gone back-and-forth on any player this season as much as I have with Wendell. He's been under-edited, but is that because of the Ghost Island time suck? He's had enough air time he could win, but his edit really screams second runner up to me. So why don't I have him there? Well, I did, but there's someone else who screams that even more. I'm not sure where to place him, but the only thing I can say for sure is that based on his edit I feel he'll be in the finale. Given that I have stronger candidates for sixth place, last boot, and all three FTC positions, I'll place him here. For now. Expect that to quite possibly change.
17th person voted out, tenth and final jury member: Michael -- Michael continues to play very well and receive a large edit. I'm a big fan of his and think he'll go very deep which I couldn't be happier about. Unfortunately, his edit screams "decoy winner edit"/last boot edit. I firmly believe this is where he'll place. I hope I'm wrong.
Final Three: Kellyn Bechtold (winner, 8 jury votes), Dominick Abbate (runner up, 2 jury votes), Laurel Johnson (second runner up, no jury votes)
Kellyn continues to give huge winner vibes. Her edit has been the most consistently strong of anyone this season. The little things speak the most volume. The camera focussing on her as the Malolo tribe left tribal after the crazy Brendan boot. The fact that she got the confessional describing how difficult it was for Malolo to lose 4 challenges in a row. They're over-highlighting Kellyn for a reason. I believe it's because she's winning, and by a large margin. The runner up is always fairly easy to predict, and I feel very confident that it will indeed be Dominick this season. His edit is huge, but somewhat negative, and almost but not entirely, strategic not personal. He doesn't seem like a likable guy and it makes since he'd lose to Kellyn. Laurel is an interesting one. She's had a fair amount of game but not much airtime, though more than a lot of people. You think of her as someone with a chance to win, but based on the edit, she doesn't have a chance to win. This is the classic second runner up edit (see Tai in Kaoh Rong).
Stay tuned here, I'll update this after the next episode!
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