Survivor 35 has been a crazy, unpredictible, and very weird season. It's had high highs, boring lows, a slightly uncomfortable, slightly compelling "feel" all the way through, and most of all some very odd editing and left you saying "What was THAT?!". The craziest episode of all was the last pre-finale episode and has left us not knowing what to make of the Final 6 heading into the finale.
Here's a castaway assesment of the Final 6 that will shed some light on each player's chances:
Ben Driebergen -- The best player of the season, apart from possibly some mid-pre-mergers like Roark that were swap victims. He's found an idol (and kept it a secret, and then played it correctly!), created a fake idol, formed formidible alliances, broken up alliances, utilized players on the outs like Dr. Mike, played double agent briliantly for not one but two votes, and all things told has had a decent social game. Yes, he's made some mistakes (he didn't handle Chrissy well after the Final 8 tribal, and flipped out on Joe right after the merge which may have cost him a jury vote), but all in all he's a very decent player and oodles better than anyone else left in the game. Unfortunately for Ben all the other players seem to realize this and unanimously voted to eliminate him at the last tribal, and he was saved by his idol. However, one thing that the last couple votes have proven is that the game is constantly changing and it could be a whold different story for Ben next vote, though I also wouldn't be surprised to see them vote for him again if he doesn't win immunity. Ben wins decidedly at the end if he gets there, but he has a very rough road to get there. His edit has been favorable for the most part and he has a huge personal storyline so he is still in the running.
Chrissy Hoefbeck -- Oh Chrissy, Oh Chrissy, where do I start. Chrissy hit the beach playing and by Day 5 she was in the majority alliance with Ben. She dominated the pre-merge leading her tribes to challenge wins and orchestrating the blindside of Roark, one of the biggest threats in the game. By the early post-merge her game fell apart, she became blunt, exit interviews with Desi and Cole referred to her as a "bitch", and her chances of winning have plumetted. If she makes the final tribal (which she has a good chance to I think), she'll struggle to get votes based on her social game, and depending on who she's there with she could get anywhere from 0-4 to finish anywhere from second runner up to tied for the win but losing the final vote. The editing this season has been crazy to figure out, but one consistent has been Chrissy getting a runner up edit. You heard it here first, Chrissy Hoefbeck will make the FTC but will NOT, and I repeat NOT, win this game.
Ryan Ulnrich -- Ryan is similar to Chrissy in that he started the game fairly strong, finding a first-tribal-only idol, willing it to Chrissy which then gained him an ally at the swap. He was the swing vote in the Ali blindside and found two idols total in the game. However, by the early pre-merge he became less likable as well, and essentially followed Chrissy's decision on every move, and became, dare I say it, a goat. He's also made some dumb moves like blabbing about his idol to the wrong people, which almost got him eliminated, and made one of his closest allies (Devon), flip. Similarly to Chrissy, Ryan has an okay chance of making the FTC, but will not win. His edit has been a bit hard to understand. He's gotten a lot of air time, but not a winner's edit, and not really a runner up edit either. If anything he's gotten a last boot edit, which is where I'll predict he ends up at this point.
Devon Pinto -- Devon is the opposite of Ryan and Chrissy. He started the game as a laid back surfer dude that no one gave any thought to, and slowly but surely, especially since the game, has proven himself a legit social, physical, and strategic threat, and has become a legitimate threat to win this game. He's one of the only people left with no dirt on his hands and with an intact social game. He would beat Ryan and Chrissy at the end, would lose to Ben, and it would be close if he was there with Dr. Mike and Ashley. The one thing I really can't figure out is Devon's edit. He's gotten a lot of airtime, but not any "classic" edit. The winner almost always either has a storyline (examples this season could include Ben's marine story, or Mike playing for his family even though they thought he was crazy to go on Survivor), OR makes the storyline of the entire season come full circle (example this season could be Ashley coming out on top as a female player after every other strong female player was eliminated even though most of them were heavily edited). As I laid out above, Chrissy and Ryan are out of contention to win so that leaves Ben, Devon, Dr. Mike, and Ashley and on a normal season I'd say Devon also doesn't have a chance because he's the only one of the four with no story. However, this season is so crazy that I'll say he's still got a shot, but it's a long shot, and he's the least likely of the four contenders to win.
Mike Zahalsky -- Good ol' Dr. Mike! Dr. Mike has added some much needed goofiness to this season, and I love him. However, his strategic gameplay has been fairly lackluster. His biggest move was finding his way into the core alliance as the last healer standing, which is no small feat. I give credit where it's due, and that WAS impressive. But other than that, he really hasn't done much impressive stuff. He found an idol, but wasted it. He was given another half an idol, but threw it in the fire (should have cultivated a relationship with Lauren in hopes of getting the other half idol). Oh, and physically? Hands down, the worst of the Final 6. However, what we've seen time and again is that the social game is the most important aspect, and he is likable. His edit has been very strong, and he had the best winner's quote of the entire season, ten minutes into Episode One. I believe Dr. Mike is the single most likely person to win this season at this point. Which is crazy.
Ashley Nolan -- Ashley is the dark horse. Most fans would say "Ashley who?" but I say "Ashley -- the second most likely person to win this game". Her gameplay is subtle. It's been VERY subtle. Comparing Michele Fitzgerald (a.k.a. queen of subtle gameplay) to her makes Michele look like Tony freaking Vlachos. However, I can respect the heck out of subtle gameplay. The reality is, it's much easier to be a Chrissy and be blatant as hell and make everyone hate you then it is to be an Ashley that makes SUBTLE but good moves, and make everyone like you. There is legitimate skill in Ashley's gameplay, and in a crazy season of whacky personalities and bad social games, if she can find herself in the end of the game with the right people, she can win. Her edit has not been as obvious as anyone else in the Final 6, but she has enough airtime to be a winner candidate. And she was shown more than she "should" have been pre-merge, which leads me to believe the editors were trying to make sure we notice her, and there's a reason for that. Also, I find it very interesting that in the last episode before the finale, an episode that usually has a winner's quote, that Ashley was the only person to reference winning the game. Plus, her winning would bring the entire season's storyline full circle, as I mentioned under Devon's entry. I just made it sound like I think Ashley's going to win, didn't I? Well, I think she might, but I think there's a bigger reason for the way she was edited:
THE FINAL VOTE TIE THEORY... For 34 seasons Jeff Probst said "we have a method we will use if there is ever a final vote tie, but we will NEVER say what it is until that happens", and then all of a sudden he offered it up on a silver platter at the Game Changers reunion show (after H v H v H filmed). I believe this season will end in a final vote tie. And I believe that Ashley will EITHER be the person tied with the eventual winner (very likely) or the person casting the deciding vote (unlikely but possible). However, there is still a legit chance that she is indeed the winner.
Introducing the NEW TWIST AT THE FINAL 4 THEORY... Jeff Probst has hinted at a "great new twist at the Final 4 that leads to the most exciting finish in Survivor history". For years Jeff and many fans have missed the Final 2 format because the Final 3 format doesn't give the final immunity challenge winner nearly as much power. My theory for the Final 4 twist is that the final immunity winner picks one person to take with them to the end, and the other two battle it out in a fire making challenge. If the better of two players wins the fire challenge, that could lead to a tie (the most exciting finish).
Last but not least, MY PREDICTED BOOT ORDER:
13th person voted out, 6th jury member: Devon -- second biggest strategic, social, and physical threat after Ben. Ben is safe with individual immunity.
14th person voted out, 7th jury member: Ben -- best player in the game. Therefore, unanimously voted out.
15th person voted out, 8th and final jury member: Ryan -- Ashley wins immunity, picks Chrissy to take to end because she's unlikable, Dr. Mike vs Ryan in fire challenge, Ryan loses. This would all come full circle as on Day 1 Ryan had a confessional stating he hopes his tribesmates would know how to make fire because he doesn't and his "life in the game depends on it" (which clearly meant that physically he needed fire), but it could be epic foreshadowing of losing a crucial final challenge.
Final 3: Dr. Mike (winner, 3 regular jury votes + 1 from Chrissy), Ashley (3 jury votes, initially tied for win), Chrissy (2 jury votes and then gets to break tie, votes for Dr. Mike because Ashley was a fellow hero and betrayed her).
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