After another excellent episode last week, Survivor: Ghost Island cemented itself as a Top 10 pre-merge season! We can only hope that the post-merge will deliver as well. As we enter the game-changing point of the merge, it is a great time to reevaluate the boot order and players' chances moving forward. I correctly predicted Bradley as the last post-merge boot, and we'll see if I can correctly predict the merge and beyond as well:
8th person voted out, first jury member: Chris -- Chris continues to get the merge boot edit. He was rather quiet this week, but his tribe as a whole did not get much airtime, and it's not entirely unusual for the merge boot to have a quiet last pre-merge episode (see Sarah in Cagayan). Chris' game has been all over the map pre-merge, as has his edit. If he doesn't go out tonight, he could possibly go as deep as runner-up, though I don't see it, and I have to say he's out of contention for the win given how negative his edit has been.
9th person voted out, second jury member: Jenna -- Jenna is still getting an early jury edit. Could she be a F5-esque finalist? I guess. She is not making it to the FTC based on her edit, and I don't see her going beyond early jury. I have her ahead of Angela as she hasn't had a totally invisible edit, and second jury member is generally more heavily edited than third jury member.
10th person voted out, third jury member: Angela -- Angela had another super super quiet week last episode, and I don't see it getting any better for her from here on out. If she made it beyond early jury she'd be one of the weakest edited players that made it to mid-jury or beyond in modern Survivor history. She's going out soon, but probably not super soon given how poor of an edit she has gotten.
11th person voted out, fourth jury member: Sebastian -- Sebastian's edit has weakened the past couple episodes which leads me to believe he'll be gone a bit sooner than I originally thought. Another player that's not going to make the finale.
12th person voted out, fifth jury member: Chelsea -- Chelsea's edit has slowly grown overtime which leads me to believe she's closer to the mid-jury side of things than early-jury. If her edit continues to grow she is another that could sneak into a F5 position but even that seems doubtful at this point.
13th person voted out, sixth jury member: Michael -- I'm flipping Michael and Donathan at this point. For a while I had Michael going as last boot, then he stopped getting that edit, but his edit was so strong I kept him in the finale as F6 boot. Last episode he continued to get a large edit but it was not at all a "journey" edit which the F6 normally always is. Michael has a great "journey" they could be highlighting, but they're not, so I'm starting to think they're heavily editing him only because he's playing so well and is so liked, not because of his position. Another possible spot for him would be F5 but that position is normally under-edited, so although he definitely could, I am starting to guess it's more likely that he will not, make the finale.
14th person voted out, seventh jury member: Libby -- Libby holds this position for another week. Her edit was somewhat stronger this week, but overall her pre-merge edit was fairly weak. That said I do believe she's the rumored "new Parvati" that production found this season, and as I stated last week, that person should go deep. Libby's edit has not been finale-esque (maybe F5 but that would be a stretch) so I'm giving her the last non-finale position.
15th person voted out, eigth jury member: Donathan -- Donathan had another good week with heavy focus on his "journey". They did not HAVE to highlight his challenge performance as sooooo amazing. It was good, but they over-hyped it, which makes me think they're totally giving him the "journey edit", aka F6 edit. I do not believe he can make the FTC given his edit. He could also get last boot as that is typically an underdog edit, similar to the "journey" edit, but I do think it's much more likely he'll be F6.
16th person voted out, ninth jury member: Wendell -- This has become a trend for me to say this, but Wendell's game is still hard for me to read completely well. I'm going to keep him here for now, but I'm not too confident I'm correct about this placement yet. He got a lot of personal content last week, but more players have this season than usual. He's a winner contender, but if he wins his edit needs a big Natalie Anderson merge-esque SPIKE this week. If he doesn't get his spike, I still believe he'll be in the finale based on his edit, and I'll be more confident of keeping him in this spot.
17th person voted out, tenth and final jury member: Desiree -- Desiree had another rather good edit week, and I'm feeling good about placing her here. Her flaws in challenges etc fit the "underdog" mold of the last boot really well, and could also be foreshadowing of her losing that fire challenge. Desiree is another winner contender, but it's a LONG shot at this point, and her game needs to improve big time.
Final Three: Kellyn Bechtold (winner, 5 jury votes), Domenick Abbate (runner up, 3 jury votes), Laurel Johnson (second runner up, 2 jury votes)
Things could change with the merge tonight but for now all things are moving right along and falling into place for this to be the Final 3. Kellyn had some strong winners quotes on Ghost Island last week, Domenick continues to get the overly large runner up edit, and Laurel continues to get a FTC edit (either winner or second runner up, likely the latter). The merge episode is often very telling for finalists, so if this is indeed the Final 3, which I believe it will be, things to consider tonight in terms of who will win, are the following: Kellyn -- I would like to see her edit continue to be as strong as it has been. A dip could be bad for her as runners up often dip at the merge, and a spike could be foreshadowing of a big blindside or rock draw victim before the FTC. Domenick -- similar to Kellyn. If his edit continues to be just as large this week, especially if Kellyn's dips, it could mean that Dom actually wins. However, given that I believe he's the runner up, I expect his edit to be the one that dips this week. However, if Kellyn's edit and Dom's edit both don't dip, it could be because they had to keep giving Dom a big edit for Chris vs Domenick. If Dom's edit tonight is large but nearly strictly about Chris, and Kellyn's edit does not dip, I would consider that equal to a Dom dip. Laurel -- like Wendell, Laurel needs a SPIKE tonight to stay in the running as a winner contender. Her pre-merge edit was not too small for a winner, but it was smaller than average, and it needs to go up and go up NOW in order for her to stay a contender. If her edit stays the same or dips, it pretty much cements her as second runner up.
A super quick recap: we are down to five winner contenders (Kellyn, Laurel, Wendell, Domenick, Desiree) in that order of likelihood.
Stay tuned here, I'll update this again after this episode, i.e. the MERGE, and we might have some big shifts!
Stay tuned here, I'll update this again after this episode, i.e. the MERGE, and we might have some big shifts!
