Survivor: Ghost Island Predicted Boot Order at F14

Survivor: Ghost Island's sixth episode was a BANG and minus last week's episode, this is shaping up as one of the very best pre-merge seasons in Survivor history.  With James, one of the most boring players of the season, the latest casualty, we have a ton of dynamic personalities moving forward.  This week a few players were finally more heavily edited, and this is a good point in the game to revise the predicted boot order:

7th person voted out: Bradley -- Bradley continues to be arrogant as heck and get a large but strictly negative edit.  He's decidedly more Peter Bagastos than Nick Murliono which leads me to believe if he made the merge the editors would at least try to hide some of his arrogance.  There's one pre-merge boot left and based on the edit, it's going to be Bradley.

MERGE

8th person voted out, first jury member: Chris -- Chris got a somewhat smaller edit today, and it also had some negative tones, both of which don't fit the bill perfectly for the merge boot.  That said, throughout the season, his edit has screamed merge boot, and I'm rather confident that he or Domenick will be out super early jury, and I don't see Domenick going anywhere, anytime soon.  Therefore I'm sticking with my Chris prediction, though I have to admit it crossed my mind that Domenick could be the merge boot and Chris could be the runner up.  It crossed my mind, but briefly.

9th person voted out, second jury member: Jenna -- Enough people are getting strong edits at this point, and Jenna is not one of them.  She is going to be early jury.  I'd be shocked if she wasn't.  Whether she's ninth, tenth, or eleventh out is anyone's guess, but she's not going farther than that.  Sorry Jenna.

10th person voted out, third jury member: Angela -- We finally saw more from Angela this week, but I believe she made a terrible decision voting James out over Des.  Her entire "alliance" voted against her early, so WHY keep them around?  It's beyond me.  I believe Angela has qualities of a good player, but she doesn't use them correctly, and it's going to cost her.  Sooner than later.

11th person voted out, fourth jury member: Chelsea -- Another early juror based on the edit.  There's no way in heck Purple Chelsea is getting farther than this, but her edit has been slightly more consistent than that of Jenna or Angela so I have her going farther than them.

12th person voted out, fifth jury member: Sebastian -- Nothing's changed for Sea Bass.  Same old Same Bass.  Still giving off mid-jury vibes.  Not smart enough or well-edited enough to go farther than that, but not going anywhere super soon either.

13th person voted out, sixth jury member: Donathan -- My late pre-jury, early jury, and mid jury predictions stayed very similar after this week's episode but I did a lot of reshuffling of the late jury.  I've always had Donathan as the F6 "journey edit" boot but other players with lesser stories are getting larger edits, and I just don't see a spot in the finale for Donathan at this point.  It's likely that he'll turn out more of a Zeke than a Cirie in terms of journey edits.

14th person voted out, seventh jury member: Libby -- Libby was very quiet again this week, but Domenick referred to her as Parvati 2.0.  Probst said they found the new Parvati this season so it's pretty clear that it's probably Libby at this point.  This is right where Parvati went out her first season, and she's not well edited enough to make the finale, but I don't think "new Parvati" would go before late jury.  I'm semi confident of placing Libby here.

15th person voted out, eigth jury member: Michael -- Michael continues to play a great game and I'll hate to see him go, but there's no way he's going to the FTC given his edit.  I've had him as the last boot for a while, but I no longer see him getting the decoy winner edit.  I'm starting to see his edit more Jay Starrett and less David Wright.  His edit is too large to be the F5 boot, but he's almost certainly in the finale, so this is the spot to place him.

16th person voted out, ninth jury member: Wendell -- Wendell continues to be a bit of a question mark for me, and there hasn't been a player for a while that I've "struggled" to see a finishing placement for as much as I'm struggling with Wendell this season.  He could be getting a winner edit, but there's a better contender for it.  He could be getting second runner up edit, but there's a better contender for it.  I honestly feel as if he should be in the FTC based on his edit, but there's no spot for him there.  He's certainly not getting the last boot edit, so I have to place him here.  For some reason it still doesn't feel right though.

17th person voted out, tenth and final jury member: Desiree -- I've been all over the map with Desiree for the last few rounds, but this feels like her spot.  She had a fairly "negative tone" edit this week which means she won't win, but I feel her edit was large enough she'll be in the finale.  Her quote of feeling like her challenge loss could haunt her for a long time could easily be foreshadowing of losing fire at the F4.  She also seems to be getting the underdog edit which is often the F4 boot.  She could also be second runner up as there are similarities between her and Ryan, but I don't see Laurel losing fire and do think she's more likely to be in the FTC.

Final Three: Kellyn Bechtold (winner, 5 jury votes), Domenick Abbate (runner up, 3 jury votes), Laurel Johnson (second runner up, 2 jury votes)

 Another strong week for all three of our FTC players and I see no reason to doubt they will be the Final 3.  To me, Kellyn continues to receive the winner edit.  She once again got a lot of airtime, was instrumental in making sure Angela didn't flip, and got a "storyline" moment at tribal describing her gut being the combination of her head and her heart, with Probst saying that he continues to learn from the players.  This was a massive moment and the music changed when it happened.  It screamed Sarah at the Varner/Zeke tribal in Game Changers to me, and Kellyn is getting the winner edit all day every day to me.  Domenick is an interesting one.  I've had him as the runner up since the premiere and I still believe he will be, but in the last episode his edit became a little "different".  As I said, I entertained the idea of Chris being the runner up and Domenick the merge boot, and I even wondered if they could be the next Josh/Jeremy.  That said, throughout the season the edit signs have pointed to a second place finish for Dom and I'll stick with it, for now.  He has played a strong game (with some flaws, admittedly, but overall a fairly strong game) so far, and he could potentially win, but he's had nearly no personal content and I also don't see that at this point.  Laurel is another very interesting one.  Her edit has slowly gained momentum overtime, and last episode she had some very high quality content.  I'm rather confident she'll be in the FTC at this point (unless she's last boot, but I honestly don't see that at this point).  She's not getting the runner up edit, so I have her as second runner up given Kellyn's strong winner edit.  That said, if the editors are going rogue this season and Kellyn is the merge boot or last boot, Laurel is definitely the next strongest winner contender, and I'd have her as my winner pick if Kellyn wasn't in the picture.  Watch Laurel closely.

Stay tuned here, I'll update this again after the next episode!

Defending Sophie Clarke, winner of Survivor: South Pacific

I just rewatched Survivor: South Pacific for the first time in several years.  It's always been a season I enjoy more than most Survivor fans and rewatching it was no different.  It's a thoroughly solid season.  Solid is a good word, not amazing, but definitely not weak like a lot of fans think it is.  One looming question is left to be asked when one finishes watching South Pacific.  Who should have won?  The general consensus among many Survivor fans is that runner-up Coach Wade who defeated Albert Destrade but was defeated by Sophie Clarke in a 6-3-0 vote, should have won.  This is my second article defending an under-the-radar winner.   When I defended Michele Fitzgerald of Kaoh Rong I described that I very rarely question a jury decision as they were out there with the finalists, I was not, even though I may *think* (from my couch), that I would have voted for one of the other finalists.  This is true in South Pacific.  Being honest, I was slightly more impressed by Coach's game, but based on the 6-3-0 vote of a seemingly non-bitter jury, I believe the right player won.  Why?

#1 Subtle gameplay is powerful, and the South Pacific jury respected it

The reason I would have voted for Coach is because I love bold, gutsy, flashy gameplay.  Seeing Coach form the "Family" of five on Day 1 that went all the way together, and seeing him convince Cochran to flip at the merge (when it wasn't his best move), made my Survivor super fan self go nuts in an awesome way.  That doesn't mean it's any better gameplay then Sophie taking out Brandon Hantz at the F5 version 1 and deflecting the target off herself, or giving Coach and Albert advice on attacking each other at the FTC.  Coach's moves were flashier so I liked them more, but they weren't necessarily better, than Sophie's moves.  The South Pacific jury simply respected Sophie's subtle moves, as they should have.

#2 Sophie's moves were end-game heavy, Coach weakened near the end

Like Michele and Aubry in Kaoh Rong, respectively, Sophie's game got stronger at the end where Coach's game started to weaken at the end.  Both Sophie and Coach had pros and cons to their games, but Sophie's cons (just "floating") happened early, Coach's flaws (promising Final 3 to too many people, losing his social graces) happened late.  In addition, Sophie's best moves were all in the second half of the post-merge whereas Coach's best moves came pre-merge and at the merge.  Even though both players had great moves and weak spots, Coach's flaws and Sophie's bright spots were fresher in the jurors' minds.

#3 Sophie was a challenge beast 

Sophie won three individual immunity challenges in South Pacific, Coach didn't win a single one.  People can talk "social game and strategy game" all day long, and I agree that it's the most important part of the game, but the physical game is that third component and it does add to the resume.  Add in the fact that Sophie beat Ozzy in the Final Immunity challenge and neither she nor Coach would have had a chance to win the game if she hadn't won that challenge, it helped her resume significantly.  Especially when you had folks like Keith, Dawn, and Ozzy on the jury that were challenge beasts themselves and respect physical performances.

#4 An amazing final tribal performance 

Some people say Survivor ends on Day 38 when you vote out the last player, but sorry folks, it doesn't.  Survivor does not end until the last vote has been cast at the FTC.  Sophie kept playing the game until that last minute, Coach did not.  Sophie simply put had an amazing FTC performance and took every opportunity to capitalize on the moment, all the way to the very end of the FTC when Coach admitted he wasn't the best strategist and Sophie jumped in saying "that's because he had me to do his strategizing for him".  BOOM.

To Recap: Both Sophie and Coach played good games in Survivor: South Pacific, each with their serious flaws.  They both made several big moves, Sophie's subtler than Coach's, but Sophie had the challenge wins on her resume too.  Most Survivor fans, myself included, love seeing BIG moves, so wish Coach had won for his BIG moves, but Sophie's were equally impressive, albeit quieter.  As is the case in many seasons where the runner up and winner play fairly equally impressive games, it comes down to whose gameplay the jury respects more, and they liked Sophie's style.  Sophie is a deserving winner of Survivor: South Pacific.

Survivor: Ghost Island Predicted Boot Order at Final 15

Survivor: Ghost Island has had another two great episodes since my last update and two more original Malolo have been voted off the new Malolo tribe.  We've gotten to see a bunch more character development of several different people, and it results in my new predicted boot order:

6th person voted out: Desiree -- For a while I've had Desiree going to the Final 5 but this week her edit spiked.  A pre-merge strong spike after being quiet all season is never a good sign, and to me an indicator of a swap victim of the upcoming swap.

7th person voted out: Bradley -- Bradley has given very strong Peter Bagastos vibes in the last two episodes and at this point I strongly believe he'll be pre-merge.  It was a bit of a tossup between him and Desiree for 6th out/7th out but I am ousting Desiree first because her edit just spiked now, where Bradley's gotten a lot of airtime all season.

MERGE

8th person voted out, first jury member: Chris -- Chris continues to give off merge boot vibes.  We see him and Dominick continuing to feud next episode, but I can't see either of them going pre-merge.  They probably end up on separate tribes at the swap, but as soon as they get back together, they'll be going at each other.  And I see Dominick winning.  The merge boot always gets a strong edit and Chris fills this archetype perfectly.

9th person voted out, second jury member: Jenna -- Jenna continues to get the flirty girl early jury edit, and if she and Sebastian start getting too close, they are going to want to break that up.

10th person voted out, third jury member: James -- We continue to not see much from James, so this seems like a reasonable spot to place him.  Not going super soon but definitely not an end-gamer.


11th person voted out, fourth jury member: Angela -- See James.  Invisible which is good for the short term, bad for the long term.

12th person voted out, fifth jury member: Chelsea -- Like James and Angela, in-vis-ible.  That said, we've gotten to see a bit more of her these past two episodes which leads me to believe she'll be around a bit longer than the other invisible mid-jury players.

13th person voted out, sixth jury member: Sebastian -- This past episode proved what I've thought for a while which is that Sebastian is too goofy to be good at this game.  He wanted to keep Jenna (which was the right decision anyway) because she braids his friggin' hair.  Give me a break.  You're playing a million dollar game and are going to let hair braiding influence a decision?  Lame.

14th person voted out, seventh jury member: Libby -- Libby continues to give strong vibes of players that have placed around here before, and she seems safe for a while, so no reason to change her placement just yet.

15th person voted out, eigth jury member: Donathan -- Donathan is getting the "journey" edit which we have routinely seen land in sixth place (Kimmi in Second Chance, Jay in MvGX, Cirie in Game Changers).  This seems like a logical spot to place him.

16th person voted out, ninth jury member: Wendell -- I haven't gone back-and-forth on any player this season as much as I have with Wendell.  He's been under-edited, but is that because of the Ghost Island time suck?  He's had enough air time he could win, but his edit really screams second runner up to me.  So why don't I have him there?  Well, I did, but there's someone else who screams that even more.  I'm not sure where to place him, but the only thing I can say for sure is that based on his edit I feel he'll be in the finale.  Given that I have stronger candidates for sixth place, last boot, and all three FTC positions, I'll place him here.  For now.  Expect that to quite possibly change.

17th person voted out, tenth and final jury member: Michael -- Michael continues to play very well and receive a large edit.  I'm a big fan of his and think he'll go very deep which I couldn't be happier about.  Unfortunately, his edit screams "decoy winner edit"/last boot edit.  I firmly believe this is where he'll place.  I hope I'm wrong.

Final Three: Kellyn Bechtold (winner, 8 jury votes), Dominick Abbate (runner up, 2 jury votes), Laurel Johnson (second runner up, no jury votes)

 Kellyn continues to give huge winner vibes.  Her edit has been the most consistently strong of anyone this season.  The little things speak the most volume.  The camera focussing on her as the Malolo tribe left tribal after the crazy Brendan boot.  The fact that she got the confessional describing how difficult it was for Malolo to lose 4 challenges in a row.  They're over-highlighting Kellyn for a reason.  I believe it's because she's winning, and by a large margin.  The runner up is always fairly easy to predict, and I feel very confident that it will indeed be Dominick this season.  His edit is huge, but somewhat negative, and almost but not entirely, strategic not personal.  He doesn't seem like a likable guy and it makes since he'd lose to Kellyn.  Laurel is an interesting one.  She's had a fair amount of game but not much airtime, though more than a lot of people.  You think of her as someone with a chance to win, but based on the edit, she doesn't have a chance to win.  This is the classic second runner up edit (see Tai in Kaoh Rong).

Stay tuned here, I'll update this after the next episode!

Top 15 Tribal Councils Of All Time

Tribal Council.  It's so legendary in Survivor.  It's where the game is truly played.  Where players are voted out, idols are played, and, especially in recent seasons, where last-minute moves are made to change outcomes.  An exciting Tribal Council can make an episode amazing.  Here are the Top 15 Tribal Councils of all time (note I am not including FTCs here.  They are a different beast.):

15th) Tyson Apostol voted out (Survivor: Heroes vs Villains)

 This was a fantastic tribal because it helped some fantastic gameplay come full circle.  Tyson, who was seen as a bonehead his first two seasons, ended his second season voting himself out, practically.  He trusted Russell, didn't keep to the split vote plan, and then there was that awesome moment where "gentleman" Russell gave his idol to Parvati (a gutsy play, and you know I LOVE gutsy plays!) and the plan worked to perfection.

14th) Andrew Savage idoled out (Survivor: Cambodia)

I loved this tribal so much.  So, so much.  Why?  Because it set the tenner for the rest of Cambodia, the second best season in history.  Yes, it was incredible in itself, but the fact that everyone was so desperate for a "move" and then this came, and was followed by move after move after move, made it even so much sweeter.  We've seen many successful idol plays, but this one more than most others, was so satisfying, primarily because Wentworth was such a fan favorite underdog, and had done such a great job keeping the idol secret, even from her closest allies.  Oh, and because it resulted in Savage going home, and he was arrogant, borderline a jerk, in Cambodia.

13th) Malcolm's double idol play (Survivor: Caramoan)

It's no secret that I'm not a Caramoan fan, but this was definitely the highlight of said season.  Everyone was ready to count the Three Amigos out, but Malcolm made sure that didn't happen, and in an odd turn of events, ALL THREE amigos were safe!  And, like the Savage blindside, some added sweetness about this idol play is that it resulted in ultra-unpopular Philip going home (although, it would have been a much better move to send a real threat like Andrea or Cochran home).

12th) Erik gives up immunity (Survivor: Micronesia)

This was an epic tribal for many reasons, not the least of which is that it was one of the first times in Survivor history that we truly saw the game "alive" at tribal.  The Black Widow Brigade was a strong powerhouse of four and when Erik won immunity they literally realized he would go home.  But thanks to queen Cirie, they convinced him to give it up.  It's amazing he didn't realize they'd promptly vote him out, and it truly was one of the best tribals in history.

11th) Lauren idoled out (Survivor: Heroes v Healers v Hustlers)

This was such an incredible tribal because it seemed that the game had turned against one of its best players, eventual winner Ben Driebergen.  He looked out of options and truly a lone man against a trust cluster of six.  And then he became the first person in Survivor history to cast the only vote to eliminate someone when he played his idol and single-handidly voted out Lauren.  Before that happened, we also had one of the craziest moments in history this tribal, when Dr. Mike made the dumb move to THROW HALF AN IDOL INTO THE FIRE!!!  All around a tribal for the record books, no doubt.


10th) Laura M. voted out by her own daughter (Survivor: Blood vs Water)

This tribal was amazing for a whole different reason.  Survivor was struggling in the mid-20 seasons and needed something fresh.  When they came up with the Blood vs Water twist, many people said it would make or break the show.  It certainly made it, and no doubt was this tribal an important part of helping to make it the best season in history, to that point in time.  Ciera, now a Survivor legend, did the unthinkable, and voted out her own mom.  With many emotions from both of them, and other players, that moment truly became a Survivor great.


9th) Varner outs Zeke (Survivor: Game Changers)

Yet another, completely different, but amazing tribal. The tribal started like any other amazing but normal tribal with one player clearly on the outs (Varner) desperately trying to stay in the game.  And it looked like it was working. But then he took it one step WAY too far and outed Zeke as transgender.  It was a horrific moment, but the tribal ended so beautifully with people standing up for Zeke and in the end inspiring transgender people.  And it also gave us a beautiful moment where the eventual winner, a conservative midwestern police officer, found true growth within herself too.


8th) Two idols incorrectly played (Survivor: Cagayan)

This was a crazy tribal where, for the only time in Survivor history, we saw someone play an idol for another player, only to have that player turn around and play an idol for him!  It was nuts, and the craziest part about it, was that neither one got votes.  Instead, their alliance partner Jefra did, and it looked like she was doomed, but then Kass made her legendary flip and Sarah was ousted.  So much high quality gameplay with entertaining players.  It became a legendary tribal.


7th) Scot Pollard ousted by close ally (Survivor: Kaoh Rong)

This tribal was so friggin' sweet for multiple reasons.  Scot, Jason, and Tai were clearly on the bottom but were fighting to stay in the game.  And they were fun to watch, with Tai whipping out an idol and then Jason's legendary "The idol's got a brother!" moment.  And then to cap it all off, Scot was voted out and looked to Tai for the other half of the super idol, and Tai wouldn't do it.  Like the Savage and Philip blindsides, it was so rewarding because Scot was a bully this season and someone everyone wanted to see go.

6th) Third ever rock draw (Survivor: Millennials vs Gen X)

The mid-jury portion was arguably the best part of MvGX and the excitement peaked at the Final 10.  Amid all the "trust clusters" there was definite trust when no one would vote their "allies" out.  It resulted in the third ever, second modern, rock draw, in Survivor history where Jessica, someone many people were picking to win, drew the wrong rock.

5th) Two tribes vote off one person (Survivor: Game Changers)

KABOOM... Game Changers strikes again.  The new school Survivor era is full of twists, and you can say what you will about them, some work, some don't, but there is no question in my mind that this one worked to PERFECTION.  I really hope producers do this again, and SOON!   I also believes it only works post-swap as there are multiple layers of relationship.  We literally got so many incredible moments out of this tribal from the Survivor first in itself, to the constant talking, to JT's dumb move, to the idol play, to one of the biggest threats getting ousted.  It was epic.

4th) Parvati's double idol play (Survivor: Heroes vs Villains)

HvV lands its second spot on this list with an epic idol play by Parvati.  This play, and the one already mentioned on this list by Malcolm six seasons later, are the first two of three times one player has played two idols at one tribal in Survivor history.  Parvati's was markedly more notable than Malcolm's not because it was the first but because it took out one of the game's biggest threats, Tocantins winner JT, and because one of them was originally JT's idol that he gave to Russell (one of the dumbest moves in history)!

3rd) First modern rock draw (Survivor: Blood vs Water)

Here is BvW's second spot on this list when at the Final 6 (it is interesting to note that the Top 3 spots on this list all occurred at the Final 6) Ciera realized she was on the bottom of Tyson's power alliance and Hayden convinced her to flip and force the first of two modern rock draws in Survivor history.  This was an ultimate gutsy play by Ciera, and you know me and gutsy plays, so that makes it even better.

2nd) Five of six people immune, Cirie eliminated by default (Survivor: Game Changers)

Game Changers has established itself as not only the best season ever but the best in terms of tribal councils as well, with this coming in as its third entry on this list.  At the GC F6 Culpepper had Individual Immunity, Troyzan played his idol (he had votes), Sarah played her legacy advantage (she would have otherwise been eliminated as she had more votes than Troy and they were the only two with votes), Tai played an idol on himself, and Tai played another idol on Aubry.  This left Cirie the only person immune and eliminated by default, despite not having a single vote cast against her all season.  Probst, the players, and the jury handled the tribal excellently giving Cirie a round of applause for her amazing Survivor career. 

1st) No valid votes then a deadlock (Survivor: Cambodia)

The second best season had the best tribal at their F6.  Spencer had Individual Immunity, Wentworth played an idol, Jeremy played an idol.  They each had three votes, all canceled out.  On a revote there was a 3-3 deadlock Kimmi-Tasha.  That left Keith the only person able to be voted out, in Cirie-esque style, but before that happened the group unanimously named Kimmi for elimination.  In many ways this was a similar tribal to the F6 in Game Changers but this one takes the grand prize as it combined multiple things (alliances, a deadlock, idols, etc) rather than just idols and advantages getting played. 

Survivor: Ghost Island Predicted Boot Order at F17

Survivor: Ghost Island is off to an awesome start.  The season has been full of strategy, good moves, a heated rivalry, heroes to root for, villains to root against, a couple big blindsides, and from early indications, what seems to be one of the best twists in history!  There are still a lot of people left in the game, but here's my predicted boot order:

4th person voted out: Angela -- I had high hopes for Angela pre-game but so far she has been portrayed as week, clueless, and on the outs.  Her edit definitely indicates a pre-merge boot, and I don't neccessairly see Malolo losing next time around.  It would seem Angela and Chris would be on the outs, and I think Chris will stay around for challenge strength, and due to the fact that his edit does not seem to indicate an early boot.

5th person voted out: Brendan -- Brendan's edit was decent the first episode but faded during the second, which could be indicative of a pre-merge boot.  If Naviti looses, it seems the originial Malolo members will be in trouble, and Brendan's a big threat, a smart player to get off before he can reunite with his former allies and bring original Malolo back together.

6th person voted out: Stephanie -- I've been nothing but impressed by Stephanie so far and she's definitely been shown as the best strategic player.  She's had a large edit, but I fear that it's the "Anna Khait edit".  In most of the recent seasons we've seen a strong female player (Anna in Kaoh Rong, Michaela in MvGX, Roark and/or Ali in HHH) get a very large but strictly strategic edit and then get voted out 5th-7th.  Unfortunately, I'm fairly confident that Stephanie will be the next person in that archetype.

7th person voted out: Chelsea -- Purple Chelsea!  She didn't get a single confessional in the first three hours of the season.  Never a good sign, and quite possibly an indicator of a pre-merge boot.  Though, if she was going soon, they would have highlighted her at least a little bit.  This seems like a reasonable spot to place her in.

MERGE

8th person voted out, first jury member: Chris -- Chris was a tough one to place as his Ghost Island confessionals were very winners-esque and it was difficult not to place him in the end game.  That said, the merge boot is usually a main character and I wasn't sure who to put in this spot, plus I feel rather confident that Dominick is the Runner Up, and I can't see both Chris and Dominick going deep.

9th person voted out, second jury member: Jenna -- Seems to be getting the Hali Ford/Michelle Schubert/Morgan McLeod early jury edit.

10th person voted out, third jury member: Bradley -- Bradley was another tough one to rank as we've not seen a lot of him, but based on his edit I have this gut feeling he makes the merge (though I certainly don't think he goes deep) so I placed him here.

11th person voted out, fourth jury member: Laurel -- Mid-jury people are often the hardest to rank, and Bradley/Laurel/James/Sebastian could all be switched around into just about any order.  That said, I get strong mid-jury vibes from Laurel, similar to Michaela in Game Changers.

12th person voted out, fifth jury member: James -- Again, hard to rank, but feels like a very good possiblity for mid-jury.  Slightly more air time than Bradley/Laurel so putting him a bit higher.

13th person voted out, sixth jury member: Sebastian -- Another person with strong mid-jury vibes but I put him fairly deep into the mid-jury just because there seem to be hints from his edit that he'll be around for "a while".

14th person voted out, seventh jury member: Libby -- Libby is giving strong Andrea in Game Changers/Parvati in the Cooks/Julia in Kaoh Rong/Jefra in Cagayan/Katie in BvW early late-jury vibes so I'm placing her here.

15th person voted out, eigth jury member: Donathan -- Given his storyline I definitely feel like Donathan is going deep, though he's not giving winner vibes.  I don't think they're going to go super, super heavy on well-edited players in the Final 5 so I place him here.

16th person voted out, ninth jury member: Desiree -- Desiree has had a good game so far, being seen building social relationships and blending in well with the group.  That said, she's been rather under-edited and is giving off Aubry in Game Changers/Kimmi in Second Chance/Ashley in HHH late-jury vibes so I expect her to be in the finale but out early within the finale.

17th person voted out, tenth and final jury member: Michael -- I've been very impressed by Michael's game so far and he definitely comes across as the best player of all the "Survivor young guns" we've seen lately (Julia, Will, etc).  He's also got a good edit so far, and an idol, so I see him going deep.  I don't necessairly see him reaching FTC based on his early edit, so I believe he'll be our last boot and receive the "decoy winner" edit (see Devon in HHH). 

Final Three: Kellyn Bechtold (winner, 5 jury votes), Dominick Abbate (runner up, 3 jury votes), Wendell Holland (second runner up, no jury votes)

 Picking a winner this early is always difficult, but I'm calling Kellyn this season.  The winner is never highlighted super strong super early, so although people like Stephanie and Dominick are getting huge edits, I think they're too huge.  I'm looking for subtler clues of a good edit.  Due to the Ghost Island twist there was no time for the usual 7-10 "intro" confessionals.  Instead, there was ONE.  Yes, ONE!  Who got it?  Kellyn.  She kicked off the season with the first confessional AND it was a storyline confessional.  What more can you ask for?  Picking a runner up on the other hand, is easier.  I called Chrissy runner up on Episode 2 of HHH.  You look for a large edit, with a "faint" storyline, and some negative qualities to the edit.  This perfectly describes Dominick's edit so far in Ghost Island.  I feel confident of my claim when it comes to Dominick.  Wendell was a bit harder to pick, but I get serious Troyzan/Missy/Tasha/Ken vibes from his edit, plus he and Dom are close so if Dom is runner up this sort of all makes sense. 

Well, folks, that's what I got for you right now.  I'll update this after each episode.